Oscar Preview 2014: What Can Keep Gravity Down?

Need far too many words about and picks for every category at this year's Oscars? Need to know if Gravity is indeed an undeniable force? (sorry, had to.) Then read on...

Visual Effects

So I’ll kick this thing off with my little spiel on Gravity:

Gravity is a great film. Original, suspenseful, breathtaking, and masterfully made, but will all the hype and accolades given to it this year seem utterly ridiculous 50 years from now? I think they will. Because if there was ever a movie that’s not going to age well it’s a movie that’s almost entirely a special effects showpiece. Now I know there was a great suspenseful narrative and a wonderful performance by Sandra Bullock at the heart of the film, but ultimately none of that matters if the movie doesn’t create a stunningly realistic you-are-really-there vision of outer space. And with technology becoming outdated at record speeds I seriously doubt that even 20 years from now the outer space of Gravity will look anything other than cheesy and fake. This is why making “NEW” the main selling point of anything is both a blessing and a curse. But I guess with Gravity we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now the Academy can already start engraving this statue.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity

Sound Mixing

Sound Editing

Are they two technical awards that seem basically interchangeable and that 98% of the voters have no real way to objectively quantify or judge? Then give them to Gravity!

Will Win: Gravity!

Should Win: Gravity?

Live Action Short

I haven’t seen any of these but by all accounts Just Before Losing Everything is supposed to be the best of the bunch. But its also the longest and subtitled. Everyone seems to be picking The Voorman Problem instead because its in English and stars Martin Freeman, the only recognizable name/face in the category. I’m gonna go the other way and predict that the people willing to vote for this category are too old to care who Martin Freeman is and have penty of time to sit through and soak in the only 30-minute-long Just Before Losing Everything.

Will Win: Just Before Losing Everything

Should Win: Who knows

Animated Short

I actually have a strong and educated opinion on this! I didn’t see all of the nominees like I often do, but I did see Get a Horse! and there's no way it’s losing. It’s a tribute to old Hollywood (check) and the magic and craft of movie making (check) but it uses new technology and new techniques to feel inventive and original (check). It’s the first animated Disney film to ever be directed by a woman (check), it’s produced by modern animation god John Lasseter (check), has the power of the Disney machine behind it (check), and features a voice performance by freaking Walt Disney himself (all of the checks). This is a lock.

Will Win: Get a Horse!

Should Win: Get a Horse!

Documentary Short

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a 109-year-old piano-playing Holocaust survivor (who died during the final week of Oscar voting!). So thanks for coming all other nominees, but you’re no longer needed because The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR (WHO DIED DURING THE FINAL WEEK OF OSCAR VOTING)

Will Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR

Should Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR

Production Design

They should just rename this award the Baz Luhrmann Award. (By which I really mean the Catherine Martin Award. But whatever.)

In related news, congrats to Wes Anderson for winning next year’s Baz Luhrmann/Catherine Martin Award for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel!

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Costume Design

When in doubt with this category ask yourself, did any of the nominees this year inspire their own collection at Brooks Brothers or Tiffanys? If still in doubt, ask yourself, did any of the nominees involve lavish period party scenes with thousands of costumed extras? And if still in doubt, ask yourself did any of the nominees contain a memorable scene where Leonardo DiCaprio literally threw costumes directly into the camera? If the answer to all of these is yes then you have your winner.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Original Song

It seems weird that the Year of Pharrell isn’t going to capped by an Oscar win for Pharrell, but unfortunately it seems that nothing is going to stand in the way of Robert Lopez EGOTing for “Let It Go”. Now considering Robert Lopez’s Emmy is only a Daytime Emmy I don’t think it should count as a true EGOT. And also, since this category doesn’t contain Lana Del Rey’s “Young and Beautiful” its results shouldn’t count anyway. But whatever. I expected a bit more from the composer of Avenue Q and Book of Mormon than “Let It Go”, but it’s gonna be a Broadway staple from now until the sun explodes so I guess it winning here is fine. But seriously, go listen to “Young and Beautiful” again. It will make you feel all of the feelings. The ones that “Let It Go” is only playing at.

Will Win: “Let It Go”

Should Win: “Happy” (but also “Young and Beautiful”)

Original Score

Considering how little dialogue there actually was in Gravity it relied on its score far more than any of the other nominated movies. And since none of these scores were particularly memorable on their own, voters will just think back to which one they remembered being most impactful on its film. And Gravity’s certainly was the most obvious in that regard. But it also felt like it could have been made by pretty much anyone and plugged into pretty much any epic high-class adventure movie. 

Win Butler’s score for Her though could have only been made by members of Arcade Fire and only been used for Her. It helped vividly create the world in which Her takes place, filling in what the production design and costumes couldn’t. It created a mood, yet felt unobtrusive while doing it. That sort of work doesn’t generally win awards, but it should. Plus how cool would it be to add Arcade Fire (or basically Arcade Fire) to the list of unexpected music branch Oscar winners alongside Eminem, Three 6 Mafia and Trent Reznor? To answer my own question, it would be awesome.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Her

Makeup

Please let it be Jackass. Please let it be Jackass. Please let an actual human being say the sentence “And the Oscar goes to Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”. Oh please sweet lord in heaven let it be Jackass.

(Spoiler alert: It won’t be Jackass)

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Film Editing

Uhhhhhh…..

I have no idea.

And when in doubt this year go with Gravity.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity I guess

Cinematography

Lubezki!

Finally, a chance to make up for one of the all time Oscar travesties: Emmanuel Lubezki not winning for Children of Men. Or for Tree of Life. Or for anything he’s ever done. But there’s a zero percent chance that doesn’t get remedied this year.

You’re up next Roger Deakins

(Fun fact: Did you know that Emmanuel Lubezki also shot Reality Bites???)

(Fun fact II: Did you know that I have friends?)

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity

Documentary Feature

This is a tough one. I haven’t actually seen any of these, but feel like I know enough about them to make a pretty informed guess.

This category has really changed since the old days when the winner used to always be the most depressing talking head documentary they could find. In recent years populist and relatively uplifting films like Searching for Sugarman, Undefeated, Man on Wire and March of the Penguins have all won. Which would seem to point to 20 Feet From Stardom winning this year. But it seems like Act of Killing has been seen by just as many, if not more people, it’s supposed to be undeniably powerful, and despite the changing nature of the category I still say genocide tops underappreciated backup singers. But I could easily be wrong.

Will Win: Act of Killing

Should Win: Act of Killing

Animated Film

I haven’t seen any of these because I’m strictly ride or die Team Pixar but Frozen is made by Disney (which is Pixar-adjacent), is pulling in Titanic money and good reviews, and has what seems like particularly weak competition. So congrats to Frozen for coming out the year before The Lego Movie is eligible to win all of the awards ever.

Will Win: Frozen

Should Win: Frozen

Foreign Language Film

I find it hard to believe that these were truly the five best foreign language films released last year as none of these had anything even remotely approaching a wide release. But then there’s a long and storied history of this category making no sense so this year is really just par for the course.

While most Oscar prognosticators are saying that The Hunt is coming on strong I’m going to stick with the only nominee that I remember playing at multiple theaters around Los Angeles in the past few months: The Great Beauty.

Will Win: The Great Beauty

Should Win: wish I knew

Adapted Screenplay

It's absurd that Before Midnight is up for adapted screenplay. The reason given for the classification is that it's based on existing characters, but by that logic every screenplay to a sequel should be an adapted screenplay. Which would be idiotic. But whatever.

Before Midnight is in the running for my all-time favorite film and that's largely on the strength of its screenplay. The magic of the Before movies is that watching them is like being able to eavesdrop on the greatest conversations of all time. The dialogue is what we wish we could all sound like when we talk. But it has an ease and naturalness to it that barely makes it seem like dialogue at all. It's the platonic ideal of a screenplay. But it has no shot here. Because 12 Years a Slave feels too important not to give it to. Which I'm fine with. It's a worthy winner. But in another world, in another life, Before Midnight winning sure would be nice.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Before Midnight

Original Screenplay

Woody Allen is Woody Allen and if there’s ever a year Woody Allen isn’t winning an Oscar it’s this one. Dallas Buyers Club is already likely winning three other awards so voters will feel like it’s been honored enough. So that leaves three Best Picture nominees who likely aren’t going to win anything else. So which one does the Academy want to throw a bone to? Well you can never count Alexander Payne out of a screenplay race, only Nebraska wasn’t written by Alexander Payne, it was written by Bob Nelson, and no one knows who Bob Nelson is (and having the worlds most generic name probably isn’t helping with that). So that leaves David O. Russell for American Hustle (can some rapper please use the line “I’m an American hustle like David O. Russell”?) or Spike Jonze for Her.

American Hustle at one point seemed like the Best Picture front-runner but has since faded in a huge way. Still, with all those nominations it seems crazy that it will leave empty-handed. But is screenplay really the place to honor it? Most of the complaints about the movie (including mine) are that it seemed like a bunch of great performances in search of a story. Seriously, I doubt even David O. Russell himself could neatly and accurately summarize the plot of the movie. He’s even basically admitted that he really only cared about character, not story, which can be fine, but in this case it let to a movie that felt like an unorganized mess. It was series of engaging scenes and then it was over, having said nothing and making no emotional impact. 

Her on the other hand, was bursting with thoughts and ideas and feelings. It spoke to who we are, how we live, and where we might be headed. It was universal and deeply personal. It was one of the best films of the past 10 years largely because it was so masterfully constructed. And it felt thrilling original. Which is after all one of the key words in the title of this category. So while it seems improbable that the out-of-touch old men who make up the bulk of the Academy membership and probably don't even own cell phones would give an award to Her, I really think Spike Jonze takes this one. A boy can hope anyway.

Will Win: Her

Should Win: Her

Supporting Actress

This is clearly a two woman race and if Jennifer Lawrence hadn’t just won last year she would take it easily. But she DID just win last year. And since this award could easily, most years, be re-titled “Hottest Newcomer” instead of “Best Supporting Actress” a previous win would seem to disqualify her. But she’s so good in American Hustle and she’s America’s reigning sweetheart (and our future supreme ruler) that you can’t count her out. Lupita Nyong’o though seems to have all the momentum now. She’s the hip choice, has run a great campaign, given great speeches, won most of the precursor awards, and oh yeah, gave the better performance. Oscars have been won for far less than her soap scene alone in 12 Years a Slave, and she had many more scenes of equal difficulty and power. So while the margin is going to be razor thin, Lupita is going to take this round. But don’t cry for Jennifer Lawrence; all she has left is everything else in the world.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Supporting Actor

If you want to see how far we haven’t come in this country in our attitudes towards the gay community look no further than the response to Jared Leto’s performance in Dallas Buyers Club. The word thrown around most often about it is “brave”? But why is it “brave”? Because he’s playing a transgender person? Explain to me what’s “brave” about that. Because I didn’t realize that portraying someone different than yourself was considered “brave”; I thought it was just called doing your job as an actor. I mean isn’t that literally the dictionary definition of acting? Now this is certainly a very reductive way to view these roles, but if we’re going to base our awards voting on which performance is the most “brave” isn’t taking pleasure out of whipping black women while yelling the N-word at them much more emotionally difficult and uncomfortable in 2013 than putting on a dress and pretending to be attracted to men? Based on the overwhelming support for Jared Leto it would appear not. His performance is humane and touching, but it’s nowhere near the level of Michael Fassbender’s work. It seems for most voters though, that it’s not about the work itself. It’s about rewarding Jared Leto for his “courage” in taking on the part. As a voter told Entertainment Weekly about why he was voting for Jared Leto, “it’s a very risky performance that you could easily be ostracized for.” So you could be ostracized for playing a transgender person but not for playing a sociopathic racist? That says so much about Hollywood and America and the Academy. And it makes me sad that we’re not further along as a culture, and that Michael Fassbender is going to get reverse-Brokebacked, but mostly that “Academy Award Winner Jared Leto” is now a thing that is going to be true.

Will Win: Jared Leto

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

Actress

Cate Blanchett is winning this more than anyone has ever won anything. Which is really saying something since this is a very good group of nominees. When Meryl Streep is the weakest of the bunch you know you’ve got a solid category. But Cate Blanchett is blowing them all off the map so it hardly seems worth discussing. So instead let’s talk about Amy Adams.

Were you aware that Amy Adams is slowly becoming one of the most critically acclaimed actresses of all time? It’s true. Here’s the compete list of actresses with more Oscar nominations than Amy Adams by the time they turned 40: Kate Winslet, Deborah Kerr, Norma Shearer, Bette Davis, and Meryl Streep. That’s it. Maybe not strictly a murderers row, but still, surprised Amy Adams is in such elite company aren’t you? But you shouldn’t be because Amy Adams has become a shockingly reliable signifier of quality. She’s quietly become the queen of the indie prestige project. Need proof? Leaving out Man of Steel here are the directors of her last four films: David O. Russell, Spike Jonze, Clint Eastwood, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Now that IS a murderers row. Is Amy Adams, the princess from Enchanted (a role for which I still maintain she should have been Oscar nominated), really the new Kate Winslet? Or even the new Meryl Streep? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. And American Hustle is her finest work yet. She’s an absolute revelation in it. And in any other year she takes home the statue. No one is beating Cate Blanchett this year, but don’t worry, if we’ve learned anything about Amy Adams, it’s that she’ll be back.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Actor

Matthew McConaughey is this year’s Ben Affleck. He's going to win for turning his career around as much as for the work itself. And in that sense True Detective is the anti-Norbit. Seeing constant ads for the show are a great reminder of just how complete his career transformation has been. And speaking of transformations, the only thing Oscar voters love more than redemption narratives are physical transformations for roles. So although it seems weird that in one of the best years ever for actors the Oscar is going to go to Matthew McConaughey, that’s almost certainly what’s about to happen. And that’s a shame. Because while it’s a great performance and a worthy winner, there are two performances I like even better.

Chiwetel Ejiofor is the heart and soul of 12 Years a Slave (and has one of the only names harder to spell than McConaughey). Giving a great performance as the lead of the Best Picture frontrunner is usually enough to win an Oscar. But despite all his suffering and gnashing of teeth, the bulk of his performance is actually, due to the nature of the part, very internal. For me the nuance and subtext of the performance are what make so great, but that non-bombastic nature in addition to Chiwetel being a virtual unknown prior to this year is probably going to keep him from winning a brutally tough category.

On the opposite end of the bombastic spectrum is my pick, if I had one, Leonardo DiCaprio. For years I’ve found Leo to be somewhat stiff and unbelievable, so it makes sense that his two best performances would be Django Unchained and The Wolf of Wall Street, two movies where he didn’t concern himself with naturalism or seriousness. By embracing his inner comedic character actor he paradoxically finally comes off as comfortable in his own skin. It’s like he finally realized that he’s always been miscast as himself. He works much better when he’s someone else. And there was no more extreme someone else to be in film last year than Jordan Belfort. And Leo wrings every bit out of the part that he can. The speeches, the boat confrontation with Kyle Chandler, the final fight with Margot Robbie – it’s just three straight hours of Oscar-worthy scenes. The Quaaludes scene alone should have won him an Oscar and was the best ten minutes of any movie released in 2013. It should be shown to aspiring physical comedians everywhere. Leonardo DiCaprio is the new Jim Carrey; who knew? Ultimately though Leo is getting shafted here because the character was so unlikable and because large numbers of voters had issues with the film. But Leo will never be better, Jordan Belfort is going to go down as his most iconic non-Titanic role, and 10 years from now it’s going to look criminal and inexplicable that he didn’t win the Oscar for it. There continues to be no justice with regards to Jordan Belfort, only this time in an entirely different way.

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Director

I think 12 Years a Slave is by far the best picture. And Steve McQueen is huge reason why. I don’t think another person alive could have taken the same material as made it as powerful and memorable. But considering Ang Lee won this award last year for Life of Pi it’s clear that this award often means MOST direction. And I’m fine with that. If you spend years of your life trying to realize a singular and seemingly impossible vision and finally pull it off brilliantly while pushing the entire art form forward in the process you deserve an Oscar for your efforts. So this is a really close call for me. But I thought James Cameron should have won for Avatar, and for the same reasons I think Alfonso Cuaron should take it this year. Which is what he’s going to do whether I want him to or not.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Picture

This is at this point a two picture race. So let's just focus on those two:

Gravity is a thoroughly original and entertaining movie. It’s a technical marvel and visually unlike anything that has come before.

12 Years a Slave is the new Schindlers List. It’s going to be taught in schools. Seeing it changed how I view the world.

As I’ve said countless times over the years, The Oscars matter because they are a historical document. A record of what mattered. An imperfect, flawed, often egregiously wrong record, but the one record that we know will still be around and still be referenced in 100 years. In 200 years. In 1,000 years. And what do we want on that record as the best film of 2013? Something that will soon look like a primitively shot space epic with a rail thin plot, or the most well-crafted and accurate look yet at one of humanity’s most important and painful chapters?

In Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar preview they stated “In short, 12 Years is heartbreaking; Gravity is groundbreaking”. I agree. And only one of those qualities is one that lasts.

Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

Should Win: 12 Years A Slave

My Top 20 Favorite Things of 2013

 

It was busy year for me personally and so there are a great many things I'm sure would have made this list if I had only had time to experience them: Frances Ha, Short Term 12, American Hustle, Haim, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, Time of Death, Six by Sondheim, Mark Rylance’s "Twelfth Night", the list goes on and on. But that being said, there were 20 terrific things I did experience that helped make 2013 a pretty great year culturally.

1. Liz’s speech to Tracy in the 30 Rock finale
I wish I could post a clip of this because the performances are really what put it over the top, but rights issues prevent me from doing that so here's the transcript of it: 

“We were forced to be friends because of work. And we’re probably not gonna hang out after this. You’ll say you’re gonna invite me to your house, but it's never gonna happen. And I’ll see on TV that it’s your birthday and I’ll forget to call. And working with you is hard. Tracy, you frustrated me and you wore me out. But because the human heart is not properly connected to the human brain I love you, and I’m gonna miss you.

(pause)

But tonight might be it.”

 

Did the most heartbreakingly honest and emotionally true observation about human relationships seen on TV this year happen on a four-punchline-a-minute comedy? Of course it did. What could be more indicative of our 2013 post-genre America than that?

Comedy is dead; long live comedy.

(While we’re on the terrific 30 Rock finale, shout out to the Rural Juror song. It should have won all of the Emmys.)

2. Girls – “Boys”

I wrote about Girls last year. And I'm sure I’ll write about Girls next year. I'm sure on my death bed I’ll grip my wife’s hand and with my last dying breath whisper softly in her ear “I should have written more about Girls”. But all we have is the here and now, and what I want to say this year about Girls concerns “Boys”. Because while so much of the talk around season two focused on the Patrick Wilson episode, "Other People's Trash", for me "Boys" is the episode the best showcased what Girls does better than any other show and that is showing how people at their worst are only human.

In the age of the anti-hero, Girls represents the next step in the evolutionary process by giving us no heroes at all. Everyone on the show is just a person, flawed and imperfect, sometimes trying to do their best and other times not trying much of anything at all. They're petty and considerate, selfish and giving, honest and guarded, and most of all just trying to get through to the next moment just like everyone else. No character comes out of "Boys" looking good, but your heart goes out to each and everyone of them. And if the final phone call between Hannah and Marnie doesn't hit you deep in your soul then you probably don't have one.
 

3. Vampire Weekend – Modern Vampires of the City

Speaking of Girls, if Hannah Horvath wants to be the voice of her generation she might have to get in line behind these guys. Now I might be defining "generation" very narrowly as "white American coastal-dwelling creative types in their late 20s to early 30s", but still. Vampire Weekend is the sound of my people. A sound that has evolved from a Paul Simon knockoff to something much deeper, yet somehow still totally the same. Seriously, has any band ever changed its sound more while still sounding exactly like itself? It's music that speaks to the times, is urbane yet lived in, drenched in anxiety and intellect, gets in your bloodstream, and is very very white. Modern vampires of the city indeed.
 

4. Daft Punk - “Get Lucky”

A wise person once said opinions are like assholes, everybody’s got one. Which is interesting because an asshole is also what you're being if you have the “opinion” that anything other than “Get Lucky” is the song of 2013. And nobody likes an asshole.

5. 12 Years a Slave

To take the preceding concept one step further, there are opinions and then there are facts. And "12 Years a Slave is the most powerful, well-made, and important film of 2013” is definitely the later.

Crazy that it took 150 years and a bunch of British guys to make the first mainstream film to deal honestly with the horror and brutality of American slavery, but then again, not crazy at all.

Speaking of which….

6. Fruitvale Station

I know asking white people to watch and care about one whole movie per year about the problems of black people that doesn't also feature a white protagonist is tough. And it appears asking them to watch three (THREE!) of them is impossible (see also: The Butler). Which is a shame because...well...where do I even begin? But in this case specifically because the least mainstream of the three is in many ways the most vital.

Due to the amount of time it takes for a movie to go from idea to a finished product it’s rare to see films address current events in anything approaching real time. But in a sadly not that unbelievable twist of fate, Fruitvale Station was released a day before the George Zimmerman verdict. And that verdict made watching the film an almost unbearably heartbreaking experience. It’s the only film I’ve ever attended that when the movie ended and the lights came up not a single person had yet gotten out of their seats and all you could hear was complete and total silence punctuated only by the sounds of sniffles. There were sadly not that many of us in the theater, because while everyone rushes out to see a big spectacle like Gravity on the big screen, the masses aren’t that into the best reason to cram yourself into a dark room with a bunch of random strangers for a few hours: to experience a group catharsis.

At my screening the first person to finally get up from their seat, wipe the tears from their face and leave the theater was a black man who looked old enough to have a son the same age as Oscar Grant was when he was killed. The next person to follow his lead was an old white woman who had trouble even standing up. The first man was almost out of theater, saw her at the last second, and turned back in her direction to try and help. She kindly waved him off and he went on his way. It was a moment that meant nothing really, but in the context of what we had all just been through it felt like it meant everything. And if that’s not a reason to go the movies then I don't know what is.

7. Kanye - “Blood on the Leaves”
I already wrote extensively about my thoughts on Yeezus as a whole, so allow me to take a moment to discuss “Blood on the Leaves”. Because has anything ever been more Kanye than “Blood on the Leaves”? I mean, he used an iconic Nina Simone song about lynchings for the backdrop of a song about knocking up a groupie? Why would he do that?? Is he trying to make some sort of statement? Did he just like the way it sounded? Is he simply trolling us all? It’s provocative and ridiculous and offensive and touching and honest and manipulative and you can think about it all til your head bleeds and still be no closer to solving it. But then the beat hits for the first time at the 1:07 mark and none of that matters. Because, goddamn, that beat, that moment, that contradiction of sounds, they render all human thought completely irrelevant.

Maybe Kanye really IS the black Jesus.

8. Shailene Woodley in The Spectacular Now
I didn't love The Spectacular Now as much as I hoped to. Also, Kyle Chandler gives the movie’s most awards worthy performance. And Miles Teller is getting the most breakout star hype (although for my money a little bit of Miles Teller goes a long way). But years from now what the movie will be remembered for, if anything, is for being Shailene Woodley’s Mystic Pizza. Whether she finds her Pretty Woman or not who knows, but if there’s any justice in the world she will be America’s new(est) sweetheart. I would say our next great actress too, but it’s unclear if she’s even acting in this movie. I’m not totally convinced she was aware that cameras were rolling or that a movie was being made around her. I know a screenplay allegedly was written, but I'm pretty sure she was just saying whatever words came into her head. So natural and unaffected was Shailene Woodley in The Spectacular Now that she transcended “acting” and existed on some other plane of being. I would say she’s primed to be the biggest female movie star in the world, except for the fact that there is one minor, tiny little thing standing in her way….

9. Jennifer Lawrence
...And that is Jennifer Lawrence, the queen of 2013 and the queen of our hearts. Other than maybe the Pope, no one owned 2013 quite the way Jennifer Lawrence did. Suffice it to say that when WINNING AN OSCAR seems like a forgotten footnote on the list of things people remember from your year then that year was a pretty good one for you. And you know you're in a rarefied place when the actual walk up to receive the biggest honor possible in your industry does more for your fame and your career than the actual honor itself. Jennifer Lawrence is officially on some Michael Jackson-in-1983 shit. There's no way it can last, but really, in this day and age, there's nothing Jennifer Lawrence will ever be able to achieve that will be more impressive than keeping it going this long. Culture moves so quickly now and the backlash machine is so fast to pounce that we might never see anything like it again. There are still two more Hunger Games to promote and a possible nother Oscar win for American Hustle so who knows what greatness we still have in store for us, but no matter what happens from here we'll always have 2013 and J-Law telling Letterman a story about shitting herself.

10. "Stonehenge"/"The Fox (What Does the Fox Say?)" videos
Allow me to plagiarize myself:

To take nothing away from “The Fox" which is obviously an incredible work of artistic genius, but the best thing about "The Fox" is that it has lead to the discovery of the existence of "Stonehenge". And "Stonehenge" is the best. (The best!)

Now do any more countries have their own versions of Flight of the Conchords that we should know about?

11. Breaking Bad
First off, can we just stop with this nonsense that Breaking Bad is the greatest show of all time? That’s just the recency bias talking. Plus haven't we established that The Wire is forever the best show of all time? I didn't realize this was still a discussion. But all that being said, Breaking Bad is probably the most suspenseful, the most masterfully plotted, the most well directed, and the most well acted TV show of all time. And it unquestionably had the greatest final season of any TV show ever. That is definitely not still a discussion. So while Breaking Bad ultimately may not have had a lot to say about the world other than dealing meth is a bad life choice and power corrupts absolutely, it all the way til its very end remained a masterpiece of storytelling and TV’s ultimate thrill ride. And it proved that in the quest for artistic immortality and respect, going out on your own terms is finally the new premature cancellation. To paraphrase Jessie Pinkman: closure, bitch!

12. Mad Men – “For Immediate Release”
Here’s a show though that had TONS to say about the world. Yes it addressed power, and strangely enough drugs, but also so much more. It's hard to pick just one episode from a brilliant season that featured Bob Benson, Peggy and Abe and Ted, the return of Betty, Sally walking in on Don and Sylvia, Roger being Roger, and the now legendary climatic Hershey’s speech. But for my money this midseason game changer was the finest of the year. If drama is the story of change than there wasn't a more dramatic hour of television in 2013. I've never seen a show firing on all cylinders so unexpectedly hit the reset button in the middle of a season before, and it's doubtful I ever will again. As the end credits rolled I was shocked, disoriented, and full of all the emotions. I loved it.

13. Kacey Musgraves - “Merry Go Round”
I enjoy Taylor Swift. I own all of Taylor Swift’s music. I listen to it often. Because I am a fan of all things Taylor Swift. But Taylor Swift...you just GOT SERVED (as the kids still presumably say).

 

Now if you’ll excuse me Taylor Swift, I’m off to get the lyrics to “Merry Go Round” tattooed on my face.

(Thank god this song didn't come out when I was a 16-year-old living in the Houston suburbs or there's a very real chance I might have actually done that)

14. The Manti Teo/catfishing scandal

The Dick Chaney shooting his friend in the face/Clint Eastwood berating a chair of 2013. Only better. And perhaps twitter’s finest hour.

15. Her
This movie should win all of the awards. And I mean that fairly literally. Not just Best Picture and Best Director, but, like, Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction, Best Casting, Best Location Scouting, and Best Everything. Because there's no element of this movie that isn’t perfect. Particularly perfect though: the otherworldly screenplay, the decision to have Shanghai stand in for Los Angeles, Joaquin Phoenix who might be best American male actor working today, Scarlett Johansson who absolutely deserves an Oscar nomination for a role in which she never appears on screen, and Amy Adams who has quietly become a fairly reliable signifier of quality. But most perfect of all is Spike Jonze. He’s now made four films and three of them are all-time classics (and the 4th isn't far off). Her though is without a doubt his masterwork. He took a seemingly comical and ridiculous premise - man falls in love with his computer - and crafted it into not only a searingly honest and heartfelt apology to his ex-wife, but into one of the most heartbreaking explorations of the quest for human connection in years. It’s both incredibly of its time and way ahead of it. It’s a master filmmaker at his absolute apex both as an artist and as a human. And it’s one of my all-time favorite movies.

16. Amy Poehler and Tina Fey at The Golden Globes

 

Serious Question: Why aren’t all awards shows just like this?

Serious Question Two: Why is it so rare that things are exactly as good as you know that they will be?

17. Orange is the New Black

Was there anything more 2013 than Orange is the New Black? It checked all the boxes - multiracial, gay-friendly, empowering to women, a sprawling ensemble cast, gave voice to people not normally represented in popular culture, on Netflix rather than "TV", designed for binge watching, a comedy without hard jokes, a drama with big laughs, hip-hop, NPR, mustaches. OITNB was 2013. But more importantly, at a time when culture seems obsessed with teaching old dogs new tricks, OITNB showed us all a different way forward: get a new dog.

18. Macklemore and Ryan Lewis - “Same Love”

Some generations have their “Change is Gonna Come” sung by Sam Cooke, and some have theirs sung by a guy whose most famous song is a novelty record about thrift store shopping. But then that’s not giving Macklemore enough credit. Because when I was young person the uber-popular zeitgeist-capturing white rapper du-jour was known for his misogyny, homophobia, violence, and nihilism. And today’s version on the other hand is known for his consciousness, his sobriety, his rejection of consumerism, and his LGBT activism. So while I’ll always have a place in my heart for Eminem due to what he meant to me during my formative years, without a doubt Macklemore, culturally, represents progress. And this is his "My Name Is".

19. Before Midnight

In a year when complaining about sequels and prequels and comic book adaptations reached a fever pitch, ironic that one the year’s best movies and one of my all-time favorite films (that's two in one year!) was part of a trilogy and a super hero franchise. And you better believe that Celine and Jesse are super heroes. They're super heroes of language. Super heroes of honesty. And my personal super heroes for proving once again that all you truly need for great art is two people talking.

#CelineandJesse4Ever

20. The New York Times article “I Know What You Think Of Me”

Finally, nothing resonated more deeply and personally with me in 2013 than this simple article in the New York Times. It articulates the complexity, contradiction, and difficulty of being a person in a relationship with other people more clearly, beautifully, and succinctly than anything else I've ever read.

“If we want the rewards of being loved we have to submit to the mortifying ordeal of being known” should be recited by school kids like the Pledge of Allegiance.

OSCARS PREDICTIONS 2013

Do you need nearly 5,000 words on one of the best Oscar races in recent years, including analysis of every single category? Of course you do!

Live Action Short
A shorter, poor mans Amour? Way to know your target audience of retired people who have time to go to short film screenings Henry.

(BTW, "a shorter poor man's Amour" still sounds better than about 95% of the movies in the world)

Should Win: Henry
Will Win: Henry

Animated Short
So you're telling me that one of the nominees was produced by Disney, used a new groundbreaking animation technique, played in theatres before Wreck-it-Ralph, and went viral just as Oscar voting was in full swing? Well then, thanks for playing other nominees, it’s been nice not knowing you.

Should Win: Paperman
Will Win: Paperman

Animated Feature
Okay, I’ve only seen Brave here, so maybe I’m not the best judge. It seems like there might be a Wreck-It-Ralph upset brewing, as it won the PGA and the Annie and a bunch of websites are picking it to win. Of course I’m shocked (SHOCKED!) that The Internet seems to like a comedy about video games more than a relatively dramatic movie about the relationship between a princess and her mother. But I haven’t actually seen Wreck-It-Ralph so I can’t say whether they’re right or not. But I thought Brave was really good and find it hard to believe that Wreck-It-Ralph would be better.

Now I’m a huge Pixar fan-boy, so take that into account, but I don't get the relative lack of enthusiasm for Brave. Sure it was more "Disney" than "Pixar". And no it was no Wall-E. But with the near complete critical dismissal of Brave you would think that it was ignored simply because it told a story that wasn’t relatable or of interest to the 18-49 year old male demographic that dominates discussion and appraisal of the film industry in the media. Oh wait...

Anyway, the average Academy voter is 86 years old so they ain't voting for the video game movie. But nice try male nerds. A shame all you have left is everything else in the entire world.

Should Win: Brave
Will Win: Brave

Documentary Short
Going against the logic I used on Live Action Short, I think the movie about the young artist (Inocente) trumps the movie about the old people in a retirement center (Kings Point). Kings Point is the only nominee that doesnt sound super heavy, which should work to its advantage, but nevertheless I think "what we do is important" just barely edges out "we are old" as the message that resonates most with Academy voters.

Should Win: Inocente, I guess (I've seen none of these)
Will Win: Inocente


Documentary Feature
I’ve only seen one of these nominees, which is pretty bad considering I’ll gladly watch a documentary about paint drying. I’m totally Team Non-Fiction like that. So bad job by me this year. But I don't know if it's actually relevant for this discussion. Because I can't imagine anything here is as good as Searching for Sugar Man. 

Searching for Sugar Man is the reason documentaries exist. Not just to explore an issue, but to tell a story that fiction could never tell. And that's what separates Searching for Sugar Man from the pack here. The rest are all just message movies. And that's great. I love message movies too. And something “important” almost always wins here. But I think this year all the “important” films cancel each other out leaving only the truly incredible one.

Searching for Sugar Man is the kind of movie that makes you want to vote for it, get behind it, and champion it. Here’s hoping enough people do.

Should Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man


Foreign Language Film
When trying to decide what is going to win Best Foreign Language Film you always only need to ask yourself only one question: what movie is foreign, but not too foreign, and would, in style, tone, and theme, most appeal to a bunch of washed-up old retirees with nothing better to do than go to foreign film screenings?

What’s that you say? One of the nominees this year is a completely naturalistic character study set in Paris, made by a well-respected director, and might be the most honest and moving film ever made about old age and death?

And they bothered to nominate anything else?

(And in case you were wondering, based solely on titles, War Witch, is the exact OPPOSITE of what wins this category)

Should Win: Amour
Will Win: Amour


Sound Mixing
I understand the case for assuming that Argo will win, but music-based movies have won the past three times they've been nominated in this category, so I’m predicting an upset.

Should Win: Hell If I Know
Will Win: Les Miz


Sound Editing
With no musical here, it seems like a clearer case for Argo. It's the only film nominated in both sound categories, it's the Best Picture favorite, and Ethan van Der Ryn has already won twice before so clearly he’s well-liked in Hollywood. Or maybe he’s just good at his job. Who knows really.

Should Win: Hell If I Know
Will Win: Argo


Score
Thomas Newman, John Williams, Alexandre Desplat, Dario Marianelli - that's a murderers row of film score composers right there. So of course the guy no one has ever heard of (Mychael Danna) will win. He’s won the precursor awards and when they played snippets of the scores at the Golden Globes his was the only one that sounded memorable. Other than that I have no real thoughts on this, other than to go back to the fact that I just used the phrase “a murderers row of film score composers”. I really need to get out more.

Should Win: Life of Pi
Will Win: Life of Pi


Original Song
My one word analysis of this category: Adele

Should Win: “Skyfall”
Will Win: “Skyfall”


Production Design
I really don't know. I honestly think any of these five could win. If a Lincoln sweep was happening then I think it wins. But with the way things stand now, this looks like anybody’s game.

Since Anna Karenina calls the most attention its production design I think it probably wins. But nothing would surprise me here.

Should Win: Anna Karenina
Will Win: Anna Karenina

Costume Design
This is actually pretty tough too. On the one hand you have Colleen Atwood. On the other hand you have a posthumous nominee (Eiko Ishioka - Mirror, Mirror). And on the third hand Anna Karenina is costume porn. So I think that the Snow White movies probably cancel each other out and Jacqueline Durran cruises to victory. Sorry Colleen and dead lady.

Should Win: Anna Karenina
Will Win: Anna Karenina


Makeup and Hair Styling
Love these three nominee categories. Makes it easy. And even easier still when one of the nominees pretty much exists solely as an excuse to do crazy makeup (and to make billions of dollars). It also doesn’t hurt that that movie is part of the most Oscar-winning movie franchise of all time.

Other than that, Hitchcock made a fat guy slightly fatter, and Les Miz gets one million points deducted for Anne Hathaway’s “hair styling”. And yes I know cutting her hair that short was part of the plot and all, but still.

(Ladies, if any guy tells you that he likes your hair remotely that short there’s a 100% chance that he’s lying. Trust me. But also, don’t make your hair decisions based on pleasing the patriarchy.)

Why are we still talking about this category?

Should Win: The Hobbit
Will Win: The Hobbit


Visual Effects
Life of Pi is the very definition of “perfectly fine”. It was well-made and pleasant and inoffensive and made absolutely no impact on me whatsoever. But I’m very glad that I paid the money to see it in 3-D in a theater. I would make that same decision again. Because experiencing the visual effects was the whole reason to see the movie. It's winning here.

Should Win: Life of Pi
Will Win: Life of Pi


Editing
Hell if I know.

Silver Linings Playbook had the MOST editing, but I thought all the editing actually detracted from the movie. Action movies do well here, but not as well as you would think. This is probably only one of two chances to give Zero Dark Thirty anything, but the same could be said for Silver Linings Playbook. The obvious choice is Argo, but I’d go with Zero Dark Thirty for my hypothetical vote since they had the most story to put together. But I don't feel strongly about any of that.

(As all good Oscar obsessives know theres a strong correlation between Best Editing and Best Picture, but it’s not actually as strong a bellwether as is often assumed. The winner is here is misdirection as much as its predictive. But still, if Argo wins here, Best Picture is probably over; if Lincoln wins, the Argo folks are gonna start sweating; and if anyone else wins, then it's still anyone’s (Argo’s) game. And all this goes double for the next category...)

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo


Cinematography
Per usual, this is a really strong category. It seems like Claudio Miranda will win - he’s never won before, there's clearly strong support for his movie, it was the most visually beautiful movie of the year, and Avatar won here three years ago so there’s precedent for a heavily CGI-ed movie winning Cinematography. But for me that's why I’d prefer to see Kaminski win. When it seems like most of what is seen on screen was created by the visual effects department, it's hard for me to give too much credit for the look of the film to the cinematographer. Lincoln may not be as flashy as Life of Pi, but it did more with less, and is (seemingly) 100% real.

Also, remember how for years the fact that Scorsese had never won an Oscar was a huge deal and a great source of embarrassment for all involved. Well Roger Deakins is officially the new Scorsese. If only he wasn't nominated for a Bond movie, he might have a chance here.

Should Win: Janus Kaminiski - Lincoln
Will Win: Claudio Miranda -  Life of Pi


Original Screenplay

"I was pissed I didn't win Best Screenplay... It was Kathryn's year, it wasn't fucking Mark's year"

 -Quentin Tarantino on losing Best Original Screenplay to Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker

Quentin Tarantino only has one Oscar. Considering he's had a 20 year career and has yet to make a bad movie, that's pretty astounding. More astounding though is that someone who most people have never heard of, who as far as I can tell has no distinct personal style or voice, will soon have two. 

I get that Zero Dark Thirty is the more "important" screenplay, but that doesnt make it better artistically. Plus how is Zero Dark Thirty "original"? It's based on years of research into real events. The plot, characters, and timeline all already existed. Everything in Django is totally from Quentin's mind. Shouldnt that automatically give it more artistic merit? But it doesn't matter because one screenplay details white American heroes killing a Muslim terrorist and the other screenplay is about a black guy killing every white person on screen to the tune of 1,000 F-bombs. The Academy is an organization that in the recent past declared Crash "Best Picture" due to its apparently insightful views on race.

Prepare to be pissed all over again Quentin.

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
Will Win: Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty


Adapted Screenplay
I swear to God if Tony Kushner doesn't win here...

With the Argo non-upset pretty much guaranteed to happen at this point I’ve already got my guard up for Chris Terrio pulling a David Seidler or a Ronald Harwood (Ronald Harwood over Charlie Kaufman #neverforget). I don’t think it WILL happen, but it COULD. And that seems insane to me. Although, Arthur Miller once lost this category to Billy Bob Thorton so clearly anything is possible (other legendary playwrights who were nominated in this category but never won: Tennessee Williams, Lillian Helman, Harold Pinter, and David Mamet).

But more so than Tony Kushner deserving to win for being arguably our greatest living playwright, he should win for writing one of the greatest screenplays of the past 10 years. Lincoln pretty much WAS its screenplay. Even moreso than The Social Network was. And though the movies themselves will likely suffer the same Best Picture fates, Aaron Sorkin won for Adapted Screenplay. So come on people, do the right thing, and make Tony Kushner only a Grammy away from EGOTing.

Should Win: Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Will Win: Tony Kushner - Lincoln


Supporting Actor
What Alan Arkin and Robert DeNiro are doing here I’m not sure other than the fact that they are  Alan Arkin and Robert DeNiro. And how Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson didn't get nominated in their places I’ll never know or understand. It sounds sort of crazy on the surface, but I really think Django Unchained might have been both Leo and Sam’s best work ever. One of the only times I've ever totally bought either of them as people other than themselves. But in their absence we get the first ever All Former Winner category, something I’ve wanted to see for awhile. Turns out it's not as cool as I thought it would be. But then I'm probably the only person alive who ever thought “hey, you know what would be cool? An Oscar category made up solely of former winners!”

Anyway, this is kind of a weird one for me. Philip Seymour Hoffman is my very favorite non-Daniel Day-Lewis actor. His work in The Master is possibly the richest, and most powerful he’s ever done. He was maybe more "impressive" in Capote but I don't know that he was better. And his role in The Master is really a lead role, not a supporting one, which should put him at an advantage here. But Tommy Lee Jones is definitely winning this one and I'm strangely 100% cool with that. I could never develop any attachment to the idea of Phil winning because I recognized from day one that his movie was too inaccessible for most Academy voters. Even I found its lack of narrative clarity off-putting. Tommy Lee Jones on the other hand, was terrific in my favorite (and the best) movie of the year.

I went into Lincoln prepared to ardently claim that Tommy Lee Jones didn't live up to the advance hype. After all, how dare some overrated old curmudgeon dare try and challenge my beloved Phil for an Oscar. But I left Lincoln thinking Mr. Jones totally deserves to win. And that says it all about the greatness of his work. If you can impress someone who is not only predisposed to finding fault with your work, but who is actively hoping to do so, then I’m totally cool with you winning whatever awards you’re nominated for. Which means Tommy Lee Jones will soon have two Oscars. The thought of it probably makes his face muscles contract into something approximating a smile.

Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones


Supporting Actress
Hey ladies, explain something to me: why do you hate Anne Hathaway so much? Because you definitely do. The level of antipathy for Anne Hathaway from ladies on my facebook news feed is almost always at Jews/Hitler levels. And I just don't get it.

Seems like when women en masse hate another woman the reason is usually easy to figure out. They are threatened by her. Her popularity reinforces physical/sexual standards that they’re not comfortable with. They're jealous of her. They feel her success wasn't properly earned. But none of those things seem to apply here. Anne Hathaway has worked her way slowly but surely up from Disney Princess to (soon-to-be) Oscar Winner. She’s attractive, but not unreasonably so. She seems smart, hard working, humble, and talented. Her ex-boyfriend got arrested by the feds on charges of fraud, which would seemingly make her an object of sympathy not envy. She has starred in movies (Princess Diaries, The Devil Wears Prada) that have huge female fan bases. She’s never been accused of stealing anyone’s husband or boyfriend. And she seems as nice and friendly as a person can be. So what's the beef? I really don't understand.

Anyway, if someone like Jennifer Hudson can win an Oscar for “And I'm Telling You I’m Not Going”, then a former Oscar host like Anne Hathaway is winning in a landslide for her “I Dreamed A Dream”. So ladies, the object of your ire is about to have an Oscar. Might be time to pick a new target for your hatred. Perhaps puppies and/or rainbows?

Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Will Win: Anne Hathaway


Actor
First of all, what a category. You could make a whole second category of people who WEREN'T nominated (John Hawkes, Jack Black, Ewan McGregor, Jean-Louis Trintignant, Matthias Schoenaerts) and it would be better than last year’s entire Best Actor category.

Secondly though, I can't ever remember a major category in my lifetime where it was less clear who the runner-up was, nor one where that seemed less relevant. Because Daniel Day-Lewis might be the first person in history to win an Oscar the day his CASTING was announced. Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher comes close but she had to ultimately really sweat it out against Viola Davis last year. DDL rendered all the competition irrelevant.

Since the race itself isn't worth discussing, let's look at what Daniel-Day Lewis will be accomplishing with his win here: three Best Actor wins, most all-time (one more than Brando, Hoffman, Penn, Nicholson and Hanks). And he’ll be officially claiming not just the Best Male Actor Alive crown, but probably the title of best male film actor in history. Brando comes close - his work in Streetcar revolutionized acting as we know it - but even he couldn't disappear into a role the way Daniel Day-Lewis does in Lincoln. People say things like this all the time, but in this case it is really 100% true: If you showed someone who knew nothing about anything My Left Foot, There Will Be Blood, and Lincoln and told them that it was three different actors THEY WOULD TOTALLY BELIEVE YOU. He becomes other people. He’s the only actor I've ever seen that makes acting seem like some kind of magic trick. I obviously never met the real Abraham Lincoln, never seen him move, never heard him speak, know very little about him. But somehow I know without a doubt that Daniel Day-Lewis got him exactly right. His Lincoln is not at all who I thought Lincoln was, but yet it also completely is. Daniel Day-Lewis can raise the dead. He can enter our minds and show us things we didn't even know that we knew. He is a wizard. He is a treasure. He is our Best Actor.

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, always and forever
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis


Actress
From Julia Roberts, to Halle Berry, to Nicole Kidman, to Reese Witherspoon, to Natalie Portman, and on and on, this category is the place where the crusty old men of the Academy declare what hot young thing they all have a collective hard-on for at the moment. Which is why whenever picking this category always go with the youngest, hottest nominee. (Not literally the youngest. No Quvenzhale Wallis you pervs).

And from Audrey Hepburn, Grace Kelly, Joanne Woodward, and Barbara Streisand to more recent wins by Gweneth Paltrow and Marion Cotilliard there is also a long history of this being the category where new young stars are anointed.

And this year both of the guiding historical principles of this category are coming together in one uber-candidate: Jennifer Lawrence. 

Now strangely all of the same arguments you could make for J-Law being the ultimate Best Actress candidate you could make for Jessica Chastain as well, just to a lesser degree in all cases. She's less of a star, she's had less of a big year, she's not as young, not as "hip", and not as attractive. (I'm just the messenger!)  So stop trying to make Chastain vs. Lawrence happen. It ain't a thing. This is the year of J-Stew. And this Oscar will be its culmination. It will be a star being officially born. It will be the start of a journey together between audience and movie star that I can't wait to watch unfold. This is someone who will be in our lives for the next 20 years. And this is her coronation.

Now notice though, I haven't said a word about the actual performances. And that's because if you strip everything else totally away and look strictly at the work here there's someone who actually deserves this award on merit perhaps slightly more than J-Stew does, and that's E-Riv (Emmanuelle Riva for you non-hipsters out there). 

Emmanuelle Riva was riveting, and raw, and flat out incredible in Amour. When she was considered a long shot for a nomination I didn't buy it because I knew there's was no way anyone who saw her performance would leave her off their ballot. It was as naked, emotionally and physically, as performances get. (People talk about the bravery of Helen Hunt for getting naked at her age, but what about Emmanuelle Riva? She got naked at 85! And yet you never hear a word about it...) If you had told me that Emmanuel Riva had actually died during the filming of Amour I would have totally believed you. To see her perfectly healthy at awards shows blows my mind. I can't process it. To play someone dying and do it well in middle age is a challenge. But to have to do it as someone who is themselves so close to death, it must be one of the hardest things a human can do. But Emmanuelle stared death in the face and brought it to honest and vivid life. And for that she should probably get an Oscar. And here's where things get interesting...she just might.

I still think Jennifer Lawrence will win, for all the reasons I detailed earlier. And a Riva win here would be a huge outlier. But after her win at the BAFTAs it's a real possibility. More and more pundits are picking her and there's a real sense that while Jennifer Lawrence will have plenty of other chances, this is definitely it for Emmanuelle Riva. So she's got some major late-breaking momentum. I think it will look ridiculous to future generations if Jennifer Lawrence doesn't win the Oscar the year of J-Stew, and I think the two performances are of relatively equal merit so I'm still pulling for Jennifer. But if they open that envelope ad call out Emmanuelle Riva's name, I'll be on my feet just like everyone else.

Stay tuned.

Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence (or Emmanuelle Riva)
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence (but also, maybe Emmanuelle Riva)


Director
Not a lot to say here. Other than Haneke and Spielberg, this is kind of a joke of a category. And despite the greatness of Amour (more on that soon) Haneke ain't winning. So it's Spielberg all the way. And while that might have been true regardless, imagine how much more fun not just this category but the entire ceremony would be if Bigelow and Affleck hadn’t been snubbed. I can't remember two snubs completely changing the entire narrative and potentially the results of an awards season more than those two. In all my years of getting up early to watch the Oscar nominations I can't ever remember being more jaw-on-the-floor shocked than I was by this year’s Best Director lineup. But anyway...

This is the 30th anniversary of Spielberg losing Best Director for ET. And so it seems somehow poetic justice thats it's also the year he becomes only the 4th person to win more than two Best Director Oscars. It’s a list that would seem strange without him on it. I don't know if it’s a testament to his greatness or an argument against it that's he’s going be winning for one of his least “Spielberg-ian” movies ever, but Lincoln was definitely more Munich than War Horse. To once again compare Lincoln to The Social Network, Spielberg, like Fincher, let a brilliant screenplay with a strong voice help him stay out of his own way emotionally, allowing the strengths of his visual craft to really shine through. Also, after almost 40 years now I think it's safe to say that you know how good a Spielberg movie is going to be right away by how bright the lighting is. And Lincoln was dark and shadowy as fuck. And I'm proud to be the only person in history to have ever written that exact sentence.

Well, enjoy your third Oscar Steven, and try not to get too upset about getting Shakespeare-In-Love-ed again. Which brings us at long last to...

Should Win: Spielberg
Will Win: Spielberg


Picture
Best Picture!

First of all, it's pretty great that for once there are no glaring omissions or galling inclusions. No Blind Sides or Extremely Loud Incredibly Closes here. Sure I’m not a big Life of Pi fan, but it's a visual marvel made by a great director with something to say. And I know it's not cool to like Les Miz, but as someone that has absolutely no interest in or affinity for the stage version, I thought the movie was just fine. Not great certainly, but fine. Other than Russell Crowe I thought the complaints about the singing were way overblown. And anything that gets musical theater people worked up into an apoplectic rage is great with me because musical theater people are the absolute worst. (I hear Hitler had strong feelings about his favorite cast recording of Gypsy). The only pseudo-lemon here is Beasts of the Southern Wild. Besides being EXACTLY the movie that a white Wesleyan grad named Benh would make, its lack of real actors fatally flawed it for me, as the non-professionals that were used instead were distractingly bad. And overall the whole enterprise had the feel of a "Kony 2012" video made by more accomplished filmmakers. (I don't mean that as a compliment). But I don't have any real beef with its nomination as I’d always rather reward original, challenging, personal films like Beasts of the Southern Wild than whatever formulaic studio dreck might have been nominated in its place.

Speaking of original, challenging, personal films: Amour!

I amour Amour. That's probably not proper verb conjugation, but love knows no rules. And I love that Amour exists. Because it's the movie I've always longed to see. Now, I get why they dont make more movies about aging and death - it's depressing, it's not marketable, and it's the very thing we're going to the movies to avoid thinking about. But still, I wish they made more of them. Aging followed by death is possibly the most universal and dramatic human experience there is. Yet in declaring Amour the best movie about the aging/dying process ever made, I cant even really think of any competition for that title. But competition or no, it's a haunting and essential masterpiece. Flawless acting and perfect direction. It makes you feel all of the things and it really stays with you. And I'm thrilled that it's nominated and getting the recognition it deserves. It should be required viewing for every person on Earth. But I'm not delusional enough to actually think it has a chance of winning Best Picture.

Which brings us to the Big Five. The five movies that would (likely) have been nominated if there were only five nominees like in the old days. I’m still not totally sure how I feel about the expanded field. I kind of like the fact that things like A Serious Man, Winters Bone, Tree of Life, and Amour can be nominated for Best Picture. But at the same time, what's the point? None of the We’re Just Glad to Be Here nominees are ever winning. And it's almost always clear who the five “real” nominees are. So the whole thing is kind of a meaningless charade that cheapens the value and prestige of a nomination. But hey, Tree of Life was a Best Picture nominee, so maybe it ain't so bad. Moving on....

Silver Linings Playbook for me is the weakest of the Big Five. Very well acted, entertaining, heartfelt, and certainly had its charms. But David O. Russell’s manic direction was distracting and ultimately the whole thing wound up feeling like a poor man’s As Good As It Gets. I don't mean that as a diss necessarily, but As Good As It Gets was never a serious contender to win either. So thanks for playing, This Year’s Little Miss Sunshine.

Zero Dark Thirty is certainly an important film and one I admire a great deal. But not one that I (or apparently The Academy) love. For a movie about obsession and relentless pursuit it felt very slack and airless to me. And perhaps it’s just my natural dislike of procedurals but the whole thing left me cold. I know that that’s, in some way, the point, but different strokes for different folks I guess.

Now Django Unchained on the other hand left me super hot. And not at all bothered. It’s a nearly flawless masterpiece of acting, writing, and direction. It was the most fun I had at the movies this year, and the shootout scene (you know the one) might be the most graphically violent and visceral thrilling 10 minutes in film history. Django was awesome, and if it was a fraction of a percent not as good as Inglorious Basterds, well, you cant really hold that against it. But a bloody and profane B-movie is never winning the Academy Award for Best Picture of the Year. That's how it's always been, and that's how it always will be, forever. And I’m totally cool with that. But then again I still support Forrest Gump’s win over Pulp Fiction, so what do I know.

One thing I do know: the last film, and only film post-WWII, to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy. And we all know how that looks in retrospect. But even Driving Miss Daisy won awards for screenplay, and actress and had nominations for actor and supporting actor. Argo has, or potentially will have, only half of those things, at most. Which means the best analog for an Argo win would probably really be...Crash.

Now Argo is no Crash of course. It's an enjoyable and well-made movie. It's crowd pleasing, and uplifting, and not overwrought. It's the kind of movie they used to make all the time - competent, adult, and entertaining. But that's just the thing; if it had been released in 1974 it would have just blended into the pack, surrounded by a slew of movies just like it. And yet, for the second year in a row, its partially that very quality - "this movie reminds us of old movies we used to love" - that's going to propel a movie to an undeserved Best Picture victory. 

The other reason Argo is going to win is the always awesome and never regrettable "wave of sentiment" reason.

If Ben Affleck had just been nominated for Best Director, Argo wouldn't be in this spot. The day before the nominations were announced it was already an afterthought. And yet here it is days away from all-but-certain victory. Making this probably the clearest example in Oscar history of these awards being popularity contests, not art contests. The nice friendly kid got his feelings hurt by the bully and the Academy wants to make him feel better. (I can't believe I'm saying this, but if only the Academy wasn't filled with so many liberals...) It's not cool to vote for Lincoln. Sure Lincoln may be more well-directed, more well-acted, more well-written, more well-shot, more "important", more socially relevant and timely, more popular, more well-reviewed, more likely to hold up over time, more emotionally resonant, and basically better in every way, but there's nothing hip about voting for Lincoln. It's not an underdog; there's no compelling narrative that a vote for it supports. A vote for Lincoln doesn't make any sort of statement, it doesn't make you a part of anything. And ultimately that's why it's going to lose. It's the same dumb superficial reasons elections are almost always won or lost. And yet that doesn't make it any more correct.

In voting Argo Best Picture the Academy is basically giving themselves a YOLO tattoo. It's a trendy and emotion-based decision that seems right in the moment, but will look dumb in the not-so-distant future, only they'll be stuck with it for life. Sure there have been way worse decisions, but that doesn't mean this isn't still a stupid one. In the end though, its just the Oscars doing what they almost always do. Argo is a fine film, and its winning shouldn't outrage anyone. But look at this list: Slumdog Millionaire, The Kings Speech, The Artist, Argo. All solid, inoffensive, middle-brow entertainments that I found enjoyable, but which will all be completely forgotten 50 years from now. Lincoln likely wont be.

But the Oscars are now like the MLB or NFL playoffs - it's not about who's the best, it's about who gets hot at the right time. And maybe that's how it's always been. 

But that doesn't make it any less disheartening.

Should Win: Lincoln (or Amour)
Will Win: Argo