Hey Oscars you just had your best telecast ever, what are you going to do now? Well apparently the answer was blow the whole thing up and start from scratch. Because one year after the show's artistic highpoint, the new Oscar producers decided not to follow the perfect blueprint that had been laid out for them, but to instead totally overhaul what was barely, if at all, broken. Why present the awards in a logical way that tells a story and is able to rapidly fire off several like-themed categories in quick succession when you can hand them out haphazardly with no rhyme or reason whatsoever with a ton of dead air as presenters walk on and off stage? And why have a touching segment where all the acting nominees are honored by past winners in their category, when you can have random people of widely varying degrees of connection talk about only the lead acting nominees and then have the tributes to the supporting acting nominees being nothing more than ridiculously long clips packages that in several cases give away the endings to their movies? Why give out the Lifetime Achievement Award on the telecast when you can do an overlong tribute to someone with no connection at all to the Oscars? And why perform the nominated songs when you can have people from So You Think You Can Dance do interpretive dance routines to the nominated scores? Because that’s never not been a good idea.
I could go on, but I just don’t have the energy. I love the Oscars more than anything and every year I feel like I have to defend them against the usual “overlong, boring, pointless, etc.” critics. And I always read the same negative reviews and am baffled as to how these people could have been watching the same wonderful show that I was. So it brings me absolutely no joy to say that the Oscars last night were a boring, overlong, terrible train wreck of an awards show. And if I'm saying that about them then what hope is there for anyone else? It’s like when Lyndon Johnson said he knew he had lost the country when he lost Cronkite. (And yes I did just compare myself to Walter Cronkite). Even some incredibly deserving and popular acting winners and one all-time great speech couldn’t save the proceedings. And those things are usually all I need. All the producers needed to do was just stay out of their own way and the show was perfectly lined up to be a massive success. And that's the biggest shame of it all. Not only did they have deserving winners but they had to know they were going to have one of the biggest audiences ever. It’s not every year you have Avatar, Up, District 9, and The Blind Side. They didn’t need to do anything other than not fuck up. And yet they did just that at every turn. They lost The Masters on a gimme putt. And now I have to wait a whole nother year for a shot at watching a decent telecast.
(And let me just say now that if Adam Shankman and Bill Mechanic are brought back as producers again next year, so help me God, I might have to write a very sternly worded letter to The President of the Academy’s personal assistant, or whoever opens his mail.)
Anyway, on to the details of and thoughts about the abomination that was:
*Morgan Freeman’s daughter is named Morgana Freeman? How did I never know this before? That’s amazing. Well done New James Earl Jones.
*Hey, what is Meryl Streep doing at the Oscars?!?
*I was just thinking, how can the Oscars get more gay? And then I saw the Neil Patrick Harris song and dance number.
(No offense to NPH, but do we all love him so much now that we’re not going to call bullshit on that thing? He did the best he could with it, but it was painfully unfunny and had absolutely nothing to do with anything. It wasn’t quite Snow White dancing with Rob Lowe but it wasn’t as far off as most people are pretending it was.)
*You know what the kids are into? Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin doing awkwardly silted stand up. Seriously, whose idea was this co-hosting thing? Steve Martin was great hosting by himself. Why pair him with someone with very limited live comedy experience. Hell, why pair him with anyone? And if you’re trying to make your show hipper and more mainstream, why Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin? What, were Dan Aykroyd and Christopher Walken not available? It never made any sense and it played out about as terribly as I thought it would. Just let Steve do it by himself next year okay and we’ll forget this whole thing ever happened. No really; we will. Trust me.
(Wow, I’m bitter. I’ll stop soon I promise.)
*Hey Oscars, Lawrence Welk called and he wants his bumper music back.
(You know what else the kids are into? Lawrence Welk jokes.)
*“That damn Helen Mirren” FTW
*“Uber Bingo” FTCENSW (For The Completely Expected Not-So Win)
*They’re not having performances of the nominated songs this year? What, was Beyonce busy?
*Wow, The Academy is really committed to this “Paris 36 is a real movie” ruse. They filmed a clip for it and everything.
*District 9 was inspired by events in South Africa? I thought it was inspired by “I couldn’t make Halo”.
*A Conversation
Sigourney Weaver to the Avatar Art Direction winners as she escorted them off the stage: “Hey remember that time when we just met for the first time right now?”
*Okay, playing “Don’t You Forget About Me" as the entrance music for Anthony Michael Hall, Macaulay Culkin and Ally Sheedy was unnecessarily cruel don’t you think?
*So just to recap:
Year of Marlon Brando’s death - no tribute
Year of Katherine Hepburn’s death - no tribute
Year of John Hughes’ death – seven minute long three-part tribute
Sure, it was a moving tribute and it made me want to go rewatch a bunch of John Hughes’ movies, but the man was never nominated for even a single Oscar. His tribute had absolutely no business being on that show. It was an inexplicable, unnecessary, and overlong bit of pandering to mainstream America that the Oscars should be better than. What’s next, a salute to Nora Ephron? Leave that shit to the People’s Choice awards. That was definitely a low point in my years of Oscar watching.
“Hey, Lauren Bacall I know you’ve waited fifty years to get your lifetime achievement award but we’re gonna have to limit your acceptance speech to clips from an off-site pre-taped dinner party so that we can make room for Judd Nelson to talk about what it was like to work on The Breakfast Club.” Speaking of which…
*Wow, Judd Nelson was available to come to the Oscars? Who would’ve thunk it?
*Damn it! The Coen Brothers screenplay snippet featured the word “equanimity”. I had “lugubrious” in my “Which Pretentious Word Will Be Featured In The A Serious Man Dialogue Snippet” office pool.
*You know what would be hilarious and unexpected? If one year Ben Stiller came out dressed in normal clothes and didn’t act like a total moron.
*Wow, major upset. Charlize Theron introduces a movie that’s not District 9. Did they choose her for Precious (based on the novel Push by Sapphire) because she’s African American?
*Something I actually said in all seriousness – “Why is Robin Williams presenting Best Supporting Actress? Where the hell is last year’s Best Supporting Actor winner? Was he too busy or something?"
*Sure Farrah Fawcett was missing, but to me the bigger question is where was Demi Moore’s career in that In Memoriam montage?
*Is James Cameron’s wife wearing blue on purpose? Please tell me she is.
*The Cove is the first Oscar nomination and win for Fisher Stevens? How is that possible?
*I didn’t see Burma VJ, but if its anything like Burma BJ then lemme just say that it got robbed.
*Hey, it’s Keanu Reeves introducing The Hurt Locker. I knew Point Break would someday be relevant at the Oscars.
*“Stay tuned for special guests”. More special than Tyler Perry? Not possible.
*Jeff Bridges: Now officially an Achiever
*It may have been my worst year ever for picks, but at least I won the “What’s the Forest Whitaker-Sandra Bullock Connection” contest almost instantly.
*Holy fucking spoiler alert Peter Sarsgaard!
*Okay Sandra, whatever I may think of the merits of your award, your speech was outstanding. Really. One of the best I can remember. Funny and touching and well written, but not overly written. And when you thanked your husband it was one of the realest moments I can recall ever seeing at the Oscars. The exact opposite of Mo’Nique’s speech which seemed like it had been test-marketed and rehearsed for weeks. So well done Sandra. Since you got an Oscar for in essence being a nice likable person, you at least came off exceedingly nice and likeable. I’m happy for you.
(At the same time – mothers never get thanked?? Don’t we have a whole day set aside for that very thing?)
*I was really praying that Barbara Streisand was going to follow up “The time has come…” with “for James Cameron to win a second Best Director Oscar!”
*Congrats Kathryn Bigelow. You’re now officially the best working female director who didn’t also ruin the Godfather saga.
*So the Best Director race really turned out the exact opposite of the 2008 Democratic Party Primary race didn’t it?
*Whoa there Tom Hanks, you didn't even have the condom on yet…
*Although part of me thinks we’ll look at The Hurt Locker in 50 years the way people look at Marty today, I’m certainly happy it won, and it was far preferable to the alternative, even if for only symbolic reasons. It was a good win for women, for art, and for the movie industry as a whole. May the art house movie live to see another day!
Monday, March 08, 2010
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Oscar Preview '10
In terms of unimpressive non-achievements, the fact that I have never lost an Oscar pool that I have entered is perhaps the one that I am perhaps most proud of. And now I'm here to share with you, for the first time, a complete Oscar ballot of mine. Get your snacks close at hand, use the bathroom now, tell your family you love them; it's gonna be a long 6,000 words.
The Short Categories (Documentary, Live Action, and Animated Shorts)
Okay I know this is where competitive pools are won and lost. But unlike years past I haven’t seen any of these nominees nor do I plan it. I just don't have the time. And the truth is, seeing the nominees in no way helps predict a winner. Because these are an absolute crapshoot. Often times the nominee that seems least likely to win prevails. And there is never a rhyme or reason or predictable voting pattern to these awards. So fuck it. Just draw a name out of a hat or something. I’m going with The Last Truck because it seems the most timely, A Matter of Loaf and Death because it’s by Nick Park, and The Door because I always like to root for movies about doors.
Best Visual Effects
Hmm wow, tough one. Hard to say really. The visual effects in Avatar were pretty decent I suppose. I guess I’ll go with that then.
Will Win/Should Win: Avatar
Best Art Direction
Here’s the thing. Everyone assumes that even if Avatar doesn’t win Best Picture it’s gonna clean up in all the secondary awards. But other than visual effects it’s hardly a lock in any other category. And other than that category and this one I don’t know where else it’s even the clear runaway favorite.
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing & Best Sound Editing
So now just completely ignore that previous entry because here’s where Avatar picks up another two easy Oscars. Not because they are necessarily warranted or unwarranted, but because nobody really knows exactly what these categories are or how to judge them. So considering there’s no musical or music related movie in the race this year, and considering that The Hurt Locker is a pretty quiet movie, I think Avatar is the best bet since voters have history of just choosing the nominee that is the best movie and has the most sound. Because if it’s got the most sound then it probably had the most editing and mixing involved in that sound. So in this case that means Avatar. Because why not?
(That should really be Avatar’s Oscar campaign slogan - “Avatar. Because why not?”)
Will Win: Avatar (but don’t sleep on The Hurt Locker)
Should Win: Who knows
Best Cinematography
Okay after saying that Avatar wasn’t going to win anything I've now picked it in three straight categories. The lesson, as always, is not to listen to anything I say. But as much as I would like to pick against it here, even Avatar haters have to admit that it LOOKED amazing. And maybe that wasn’t the cinematography’s doing per se, but when looking at this category on a ballot a voter is going to ask themself “which of these movies looked the best”, and the answer to that question is for most people going to be Avatar. I‘ve seen many other pundits picking The Hurt Locker, and it could easily win, but I think its herky-jerky “you are there” camera work feels pretty standard issue and played out for that type of movie at this point. And the Academy is not going to give a semi-major Oscar to a Harry Potter movie. And Inglorious Basterds doesn’t really stand out from a cinematography perspective. Which leaves The White Ribbon. Which is the most deserving choice. Its camera work was distinct and beautiful and (film nerd alert!) its visual compositions really helped to tell the story and give the movie its tone and feel. But if the Academy didn’t give the legendary Roger Deakins an award for his black and white work on The Man Who Wasn’t There then they’re not giving some no name an award for his black and white work on a foreign film that no one saw.
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The White Ribbon
Best Editing
Alright, here's where we (I) actually do start picking against the Avatar consensus. I bet everyone’s going to pick it here, but I’m not so sure. See, The Hurt Locker is seemingly the Best Picture favorite at this point. And there’s a well-known link between Best Editing and Best Picture. In fact there’s only been six times in the past seventeen years that the two awards havent corresponded. And of those six times, most have either been for movies with iconic editing (Saving Private Ryan, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum) movies with iconic editors (The Aviator – Thelma Shoonmaker) or movies that edited together several disparate stories into a unified whole (Traffic). And since three of those awards also corresponded with Best Director or the favorite to win Best Director (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Aviator) there seems to be a correlation in voters’ minds between the best directed movie and the best edited one. And since no matter what happens with Best Picture Kathyrn Bigelow is the HEAVY favorite to win Best Director (we’ll get to that), it would seem that The Hurt Locker is a better bet to win Best Editing than Avatar. And that’s as it should be. Because for all of Avatar’s considerable achievements would you say its editing was really one of them? Yeah, neither would voters. I think.
(Oh yeah, and that sixth time that Best Editing and Best Picture haven’t matched up recently? (Wait for it)…Black Hawk Down. A war movie that creates its sense of chaos and tension largely through its editing. Sound familiar?)
Will Win/Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design
Colleen Atwood and Sandy Powell are the names here. (You know you’re an Oscar nerd when you think of costume designers as having name recognition.) Colleen Atwood won for Chicago, which on the surface seems very similar to Nine. But everyone hated Nine, and there’s sort of a been-there done-that quality to its costumes. And we’ll get back to Sandy Powell in a minute. Which leaves The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Bright Star, and Coco Before Chanel. No one saw The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus. Although I’d love the underrated Bright Star to get some love, its costumes are a little dowdy to win here. Plus no one saw it. Which leaves Coco Before Chanel. A movie about a fashion designer! Its gotta be the favorite right? Well that brings us back to Sandy Powell. Eight-time nominee. Associated with a more well know movie. And most crucial of all, her movie deals with royalty. Jackpot! In Costume Design, royalty trumps all. So as they always say - when in doubt go with the movie about royalty. It’s an Oscar pool rule. Look it up.
(editors note: Actually, you can’t. Because Andy just made it up)
Will Win: Young Victoria
Should Win: Hell if I know
Best Makeup
I’m pretty sure Il Divo is a made up movie so it can’t win. And Young Victoria doesn’t have anything as flashy as the work that was done on Eric Bana. He was so unrecognizable in Star Trek that it almost seemed like he could act. Maybe those makeup people could work with Orlando Bloom.
Will Win/Should Win: Star Trek
(And if the winners don’t say “live longer and prosper” at some point in their acceptance speech I’m gonna be very disappointed)
Best Score
It looks like before the run of the show is even done Lost will be able to boast an Oscar winner in its ranks. Because the creator of those occasionally comically overbearing strings and assorted strange sounds that make up the soundtrack of Lost is gonna waltz to an easy and well-deserved Oscar for his work on Up. In terms of people involved with Lost most likely to someday win an Oscar, I would have put Michael Giacchino several spots below JJ Abrams and Terry O’Quinn and about 80,000 spots above Emilie de Ravin. Just goes to show you never know. But good for him because Up deserves as many Oscars as it can get. And anything that might lead to the world potentially getting to see more of Dug the dog is something I’m all for.
Will Win/Should Win: Up
Best Song
Fun Fact: “The Weary Kind” was co-written by Ryan Bingham, which is the same name as George Clooney’s character in Up in the Air. Pretty crazy right? What are the odds?
And that’s not all.
Another nominee, “Loin de Paname” from Paris 36, has lyrics by Frank Thomas. I’m assuming that’s the famous baseball player Frank Thomas, but I haven’t bothered to verify that. If only there was an entire mini-industry devoted just to covering the Academy Awards and could tell us these things. Alas…
Anyway, Ryan Bingham the character is probably going home empty handed, but Ryan Bingham the person getting himself a real life Oscar is perhaps the surest bet of the night. His song was the most integral to the plot of its film and it is also by far the best song of the nominees. Which is good because now not only will we be able to declare a clear winner in the Battle of the Ryan Binghams, but it will mean that T-Bone Burnett will assume the title of Coolest Named Person to Ever Win an Oscar, narrowly edging out Juicy J and Crunchy Black.
Will Win/Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
Animated Feature
Yeah another Oscar for Up! That being said, don’t sleep on Fantastic Mr. Fox. I know it’s not nominated for Best Picture like Up is, but it’s got a ton of support. And there have been upsets in this category before. And Fox has a more high-profile director and a bigger name cast who are all well-respected and even beloved in the industry. I’m not saying I think it WILL happen, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be shocked if it did. I would however be upset.
Will Win/Should Win: Up
Best Documentary
I’m not as educated on this one as I should be, having only seen Food Inc., but I feel pretty confident that it’s going to win. There’s a strong history of this award going to the most high-profile and most widely seen nominee. And that’s definitely Food Inc. this year. Other than The Cove I’ve never even heard of any of the other nominees. And everyone I know who has seen The Cove says that although it’s good, it’s very disturbing. Almost too disturbing. And although it’s about an important issue, it’s not about one that affects our lives as clearly as the food industry. Enough people have said things about Food Inc. like “It changed my life” that I don’t dare bet against it here. Sure Super Size Me didn’t win, but Food Inc. is infinitely more eye- opening, powerful, and better made. So I say it crushes The Cove just like some fecal matter filled beef made from steroid injected inhumanly slaughtered cows. Which incidentally you probably just ate.
(Nausea. It’s hilarious!)
Will Win/Should Win: Food Inc.
Best Foreign Language Film
Here's another category where I'm not as educated as I should be. (Not the best of years for me.) Of these nominees the only one I’ve seen is The White Ribbon. And it’s great. It’s critically acclaimed. It feels important and lasting and memorable. And so all I know for sure about this category is that the winner won’t be The White Ribbon.
See, the thing with this category is that in order to vote in it you have to have seen all of the nominees in theaters. And not just any theaters, but at special Academy screenings. And so anyone who is actually still active in the industry, or, you know, has a life, isn’t voting in this category. So when choosing a winner for Best Foreign Language Film ask yourself “which nominee would a group of retired 75-90 year old Hollywood-types with a lot of time on their hands like”? There’s a reason that in the past seven years three of the winners were about people dealing with death and two others were about the Holocaust. And true The White Ribbon is in black and white (just like they used to make em!) and deals with the rise of fascism, but it's also three hours long, slower than molasses, and doesn’t have much of a plot or things that “happen” per se. And its artsy as hell. This is not what old people are into. Plus the Palme d’Or winner NEVER wins this category. So The White Ribbon is out. But beyond that it’s anyone’s guess. I want to say Un Prophete, since it’s the only other nominee here with name recognition and mass critical acclaim. But its gonna have a hard time fending off an Israeli movie about Arab-Hebrew relations, a movie about the systematic abuse of women and the rise of socialism in Peru in the 80’s, and a sweeping epic about social and political upheaval in Argentina. I’m gonna go with Un Prophete, but Ajami wouldn’t shock me. Nor would any of the other nominees. Except The White Ribbon. (That was the sound of The White Ribbon producers preparing their acceptance speech).
Will Win: Un Prophete?
Should Win: The White Ribbon (as uneducated an opinion as that might be)
Best Adapted Screenplay
I have a few questions about Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire. First of all, if the novel is called Push then why is the movie called Precious? Also who the hell is Sapphire and where has she been this entire awards season? And what are the odds that someone would name themselves Sapphire and NOT be a stripper? .002%? Even knowing for a fact that Diablo Cody was at one point a stripper, if you had me guess which recent Oscar-affiliated writer was a stripper I would have put everything I own on Sapphire. And lastly, is the Adapted Screenplay nomination for Precious the most redundantly worded Oscar nomination of all time? I cant imagine anything ever has or will top - “Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire from Push by Sapphire”. Can we all just agree to cut off the last part of that statement on Oscar night?
Anyway, Up in the Air is winning here. And thank God. It was looking like my favorite movie of the year was going to get shut out, but luckily it ran up against a pretty weak field of nominees. I mean I love Nick Hornby and I love An Education, but outside of that, none of the rest of these are that noteworthy. District 9 is a fine film, but the screenplay is nothing to write home about. And as good as the screenplay for In the Loop is we can’t give it an award until David Mamet admits that Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche are simply pseudonyms he came up with. And lastly, I have strict rules against giving Oscars to people named after precious metals, no pun intended. (Editor's note: none achieved). Yes I realize Sapphire herself isn’t actually nominated, but just roll with me here.
So it makes me tremendously happy to be able to tell Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner to prepare for a well-deserved Oscar win. And for a pretty awkward and strange acceptance speech considering they just met for the first time a few weeks ago. I can’t wait.
Will Win/Should Win: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
The "Hurt Locker for Best Screenplay" movement seems to be gaining steam, which is great because I’m sure it was very hard to write a script where people stand around not talking. All that pithy non-repartee must have been a real slog to come up with. But you know what I think would be even better? If we gave Quentin Tarantino an Oscar instead. Come on, you know his speech is gonna be outstandingly over-the-top. He’s gonna make Cuba Gooding Jr. look calm and contained by comparison. You gotta be rooting for that. And then there’s his script itself. It's brilliant in terms of plot and structure, but mostly in terms of dialogue. Holy shit that dialogue is good. It’s funny, memorable, smart, and true. Plus it’s in like 18 languages (I might have made that up). What more could you want? Well other than boring people standing around silently diffusing bombs.
Will Win: Inglorious Basterds (barely)
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actor
I’ve talked about my love for Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds previously so no need to rehash it all here. But just know that in any other year Woody Harrleson would win in a walk. In The Messenger he’s magnificent. He’s wonderful. He’s revelatory. And he doesn’t have even the slightest prayer of winning. Nor should he. Because this isn’t any other year. It’s Christoph Waltz’s. We’re just living in it.
(As a side note: would it have killed them to give Zack Galifinakis a nomination? I mean I know comedy isn’t valid and all, but he essentially was the highest grossing comedy of the year. And Hollywood types do love grosses don’t they? No one other than Christoph Waltz was winning this year anyway, what would the harm have been in throwing a harmless nomination Zack’s way? Matt Damon with a silly accent really needed an Oscar nod over arguably the breakout and most talked about performance of the year? Really?)
Will Win/Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress
I can guarantee you three things about the Oscars this year:
1.) Mo'Nique will win Best Supporting Actress
2.) She will take at least 10 minutes walking up to the stage
3.) Her speech will be praised by every media outlet and person you know, yet it will in actuality be pretty standard issue, unmemorable and lacking in any real substance
Look, I have no problem with Mo'Nique winning. She gave the best supporting actress performance this year and it’s hard to even make a case for any of the other nominees. Sure the fact that Mo'Nique has an Oscar will seem ridiculous in a few years but no moreso than a slew of other people who hold that distinction. And she’ll be carrying on a proud tradition of people who won an Oscar for basically one powerhouse scene (Beatrice Straight, Jennifer Connelly, George Clooney, Jennifer Hudson). Hell, probably my all-time favorite supporting actress performance (Kathy Bates in Primary Colors) is a one-note caricature that is redeemed by one powerhouse knock-out stunner of a scene. So I get it. But I just think Mo'Nique is getting a little over-praised. Much like the film itself, her performance up until the very end is so over the top and melodramatic and completely un-nuanced that it not only doesn’t seem realistic but it almost seems laughable. It’s not surprising that the group who once gave Crash their highest prize would seem tone deaf on issues of race and class in America, but here’s a hint for them: If a movie has both Oprah and Tyler Perry attached to it it’s probably not going to be an accurate or deep and probing look into any sort of reality that real people actually deal with. Unless of course they live in an overblown Lifetime movie/misery porn. I’m pretty sure no one is as purely and unequivocally monstrous as Mo'Nique’s character, but heaven forbid you ask audiences to accept shades of grey. (I really need to stop watching so much of The Wire. It's making me ask too much of my entertainment.) Anyway, it would be interesting to see what the reaction to Mo'Nique’s performance, and Mo'Nique herself would be if she had any legitimate competition. But while all the other nominees are fine (well, Maggie Gyllenhaal is badly miscast but whatever) none of them turned in work that I would even remotely classify as “Oscar worthy”. So Mo'Nique it is.
Whatever.
Will Win/Should Win: Mo'Nique
Best Actor
As (almost) always it’s a pretty strong year for Best Actor nominees. No slouches in this bunch. But Jeff Bridges has had this thing locked up for months. And I’m cool with that. It’s an “Oscar” performance. It’s a great character that feels both personal and a bit of a stretch for Jeff Bridges. He’s got some killer scenes and killer moments and he even does his own signing. Plus he’s well-liked and overdue, for what that's worth. And it’s hard for me to say he doesn’t give the best performance of the lot. But. If I had seen A Single Man back when I wrote my Best of 2009 entry, Colin Firth would have made that list for sure. He’s completely unrecognizable, and I don’t mean just in a physical sense. It’s just a stunning transformative piece of work, and the scene when he finds out that his lover is dead is by far the most underrated scene of the year. It’s magnificent. Still, passing the Best Actor torch from DDL to Sean Penn to Colin Firth doesn’t seem quite right. He just doesn’t have that Best Actor heft yet. As soon as he makes more than one movie of substance maybe it’ll be different. Maybe that seems silly and unfair, but that’s how these things work. It’s Jeff Bridges' turn, and there’s nothing Colin or anyone else can do about that. And oh yeah. Mr. Bridges gives a pretty damn great performance himself.
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: (tie) Jeff Bridges & Colin Firth
Best Actress
It’s time to face facts. And one of those facts is that Sandra Bullock is about to win an Academy Award. And not just any Academy Award, but one for the The Blind Side. A movie so insipid and pandering and simplistic and insultingly reductive of complex social issues that of course everyone on my flight home from Houston absolutely loved it. (Oh how I love being a East Coast elitist asshole…) What separates The Blind Side from Remember the Titans, or Glory Road, or The Express, or Pride or any other Disney-fied "based on a true story" feel-good sports movie that makes complicated racial issues palpable and safe enough for white people who find Obama "too black" I don’t know. Well other than the fact that it's nominated for two major Academy Awards. And it's going to win one of them. Which means that future generations of Oscar completeists like myself are going to have to sit through it and think "Really? Really?!?" Which is a shame because I do like Sandra Bullock. She seems genuinely lovely and she's an underrated actress who is in and of herself not undeserving of awards recognition. And her work in The Blind Side is quite good. But sometimes the quality of your movie has to be taken into account. Right? It’s like in sports how the MVP of the league has to come from a winning team unless there are legitimately no other contenders and voters have no choice. Which is pretty much the case here. Helen Mirren is out because no one saw her movie and she just won a few years ago. And Gabourey Sidibe is out because the stuffy old white fogies of the Academy aren’t giving Best Actress to an overweight no-name African American woman. Maybe Best Supporting Actress but not Best Actress. They just aren't. (It's not right, but it’s true. So don’t blame me; like Ben Foster I'm just the messenger). Which leaves Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan. Everyone is saying that Meryl is Sandra's biggest competition, and that may be, but I really don't see her winning. People didn’t really like her movie and it's barely more respectable than The Blind Side. Plus she's only in half of it. And I don’t know that her performance, as great as it is, ever truly transcends the level of impersonation. And other than one scene, it’s kind of a lightweight role, lacking in big "Oscar moments". For anyone else I could maybe see them wining with that part, but we grade Meryl on a different scale and expect more from her than she gave us in Julie & Julia. The movement to get her an Oscar this year feels a lot like the movement to get Martin Scorsese an Oscar for The Aviator. Sure she's overdue, but we've waited this long, why settle for giving her an award for something that’s merely good, when we know she’s capable of transcendence. I just don't sense that voter's hearts are really into Meryl this year no matter how much people might be saying otherwise. Which leaves us with Carey Mulligan. Her movie is nominated for Best Picture and its infinitely more respectable than The Blind Side. She carries pretty much the whole thing herself. She's young and attractive, which if you don’t think is a MAJOR factor then clearly you haven't ever looked at a list of the past winners of Best Actress. And she's British which is a major voting bloc within The Academy. And oh yeah, she also gives the best performance of the year. She has several emotional outbursts/"Oscar scenes". She has a complex role that has nuance and depth that other actresses could easily screw up, yet she handles it with aplomb. But sadly if Meryl is Julie Christie, then I think Carey is Ellen Page. She's too young and unproven, so great as she might be, voters feel like they can wait and will be able to vote for her again in the future. Which leaves Sandra Bullock as Marion Cotillard. But just know this. If someone upsets her its going to be Carey Mulligan not Meryl Streep. And Im rooting for it to happen. That's why my Oscar night chant is going to be "Remember Adrien Brody".
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow is winning here. She’s won nearly all the relevant precursor awards, she’s got momentum, she’s the director of the Best Picture favorite, people seem to like her, and the fact that a woman has never won before is certainly working in her favor. Plus James Cameron has already won before and he’s a massive douche bag that no one in Hollywood likes. But here’s the thing. He took 11 years out of his life to pursue a strange and singular personal passion project. He invented entirely new technology just to make his vision a reality. He waited until it was possible for him to do it entirely on his terms. He made the decision to make it 3D back when 3D was seen as some sort of dated novelty gimmick. And he made it political and relevant and topical when there was absolutely no commercial reason to do so. And he took what on paper must have seemed to anyone who heard about it like an absolutely terrible idea and turned it into a legit Best Picture nominee. There’s absolutely no one else who could have made Avatar as we’re going to find out in the years to come when every director in Hollywood tries. And not that I care about box office results, but it has to be mentioned that James Cameron followed up the highest grossing movie of all time with…the highest grossing movie of all time. It’s impossible to overstate what an incredible and unlikely achievement that is. It's so remarkable that I think in this case, it is worth taking into account. And as strange as it may seem considering his predilection for blockbuster crowd pleasers, James Cameron may be the closest thing Hollywood has to a true auteur. He may be a gaping asshole, but he had by far the most impressive and awards worthy directorial achievement of the year. His movie may not have been the best, but the vision, effort, and ability it took to make it was certainly was. So as much as I would like to see a woman win, I don’t think gender should be at all be a factor in voting. That’s how equality works. But I dont think in this case that that will be how it works.
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: James Cameron
(Hey, did you know they were once married? Someone should really mention that at some point...)
Best Picture
The Short Categories (Documentary, Live Action, and Animated Shorts)
Okay I know this is where competitive pools are won and lost. But unlike years past I haven’t seen any of these nominees nor do I plan it. I just don't have the time. And the truth is, seeing the nominees in no way helps predict a winner. Because these are an absolute crapshoot. Often times the nominee that seems least likely to win prevails. And there is never a rhyme or reason or predictable voting pattern to these awards. So fuck it. Just draw a name out of a hat or something. I’m going with The Last Truck because it seems the most timely, A Matter of Loaf and Death because it’s by Nick Park, and The Door because I always like to root for movies about doors.
Best Visual Effects
Hmm wow, tough one. Hard to say really. The visual effects in Avatar were pretty decent I suppose. I guess I’ll go with that then.
Will Win/Should Win: Avatar
Best Art Direction
Here’s the thing. Everyone assumes that even if Avatar doesn’t win Best Picture it’s gonna clean up in all the secondary awards. But other than visual effects it’s hardly a lock in any other category. And other than that category and this one I don’t know where else it’s even the clear runaway favorite.
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing & Best Sound Editing
So now just completely ignore that previous entry because here’s where Avatar picks up another two easy Oscars. Not because they are necessarily warranted or unwarranted, but because nobody really knows exactly what these categories are or how to judge them. So considering there’s no musical or music related movie in the race this year, and considering that The Hurt Locker is a pretty quiet movie, I think Avatar is the best bet since voters have history of just choosing the nominee that is the best movie and has the most sound. Because if it’s got the most sound then it probably had the most editing and mixing involved in that sound. So in this case that means Avatar. Because why not?
(That should really be Avatar’s Oscar campaign slogan - “Avatar. Because why not?”)
Will Win: Avatar (but don’t sleep on The Hurt Locker)
Should Win: Who knows
Best Cinematography
Okay after saying that Avatar wasn’t going to win anything I've now picked it in three straight categories. The lesson, as always, is not to listen to anything I say. But as much as I would like to pick against it here, even Avatar haters have to admit that it LOOKED amazing. And maybe that wasn’t the cinematography’s doing per se, but when looking at this category on a ballot a voter is going to ask themself “which of these movies looked the best”, and the answer to that question is for most people going to be Avatar. I‘ve seen many other pundits picking The Hurt Locker, and it could easily win, but I think its herky-jerky “you are there” camera work feels pretty standard issue and played out for that type of movie at this point. And the Academy is not going to give a semi-major Oscar to a Harry Potter movie. And Inglorious Basterds doesn’t really stand out from a cinematography perspective. Which leaves The White Ribbon. Which is the most deserving choice. Its camera work was distinct and beautiful and (film nerd alert!) its visual compositions really helped to tell the story and give the movie its tone and feel. But if the Academy didn’t give the legendary Roger Deakins an award for his black and white work on The Man Who Wasn’t There then they’re not giving some no name an award for his black and white work on a foreign film that no one saw.
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The White Ribbon
Best Editing
Alright, here's where we (I) actually do start picking against the Avatar consensus. I bet everyone’s going to pick it here, but I’m not so sure. See, The Hurt Locker is seemingly the Best Picture favorite at this point. And there’s a well-known link between Best Editing and Best Picture. In fact there’s only been six times in the past seventeen years that the two awards havent corresponded. And of those six times, most have either been for movies with iconic editing (Saving Private Ryan, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum) movies with iconic editors (The Aviator – Thelma Shoonmaker) or movies that edited together several disparate stories into a unified whole (Traffic). And since three of those awards also corresponded with Best Director or the favorite to win Best Director (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Aviator) there seems to be a correlation in voters’ minds between the best directed movie and the best edited one. And since no matter what happens with Best Picture Kathyrn Bigelow is the HEAVY favorite to win Best Director (we’ll get to that), it would seem that The Hurt Locker is a better bet to win Best Editing than Avatar. And that’s as it should be. Because for all of Avatar’s considerable achievements would you say its editing was really one of them? Yeah, neither would voters. I think.
(Oh yeah, and that sixth time that Best Editing and Best Picture haven’t matched up recently? (Wait for it)…Black Hawk Down. A war movie that creates its sense of chaos and tension largely through its editing. Sound familiar?)
Will Win/Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design
Colleen Atwood and Sandy Powell are the names here. (You know you’re an Oscar nerd when you think of costume designers as having name recognition.) Colleen Atwood won for Chicago, which on the surface seems very similar to Nine. But everyone hated Nine, and there’s sort of a been-there done-that quality to its costumes. And we’ll get back to Sandy Powell in a minute. Which leaves The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Bright Star, and Coco Before Chanel. No one saw The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus. Although I’d love the underrated Bright Star to get some love, its costumes are a little dowdy to win here. Plus no one saw it. Which leaves Coco Before Chanel. A movie about a fashion designer! Its gotta be the favorite right? Well that brings us back to Sandy Powell. Eight-time nominee. Associated with a more well know movie. And most crucial of all, her movie deals with royalty. Jackpot! In Costume Design, royalty trumps all. So as they always say - when in doubt go with the movie about royalty. It’s an Oscar pool rule. Look it up.
(editors note: Actually, you can’t. Because Andy just made it up)
Will Win: Young Victoria
Should Win: Hell if I know
Best Makeup
I’m pretty sure Il Divo is a made up movie so it can’t win. And Young Victoria doesn’t have anything as flashy as the work that was done on Eric Bana. He was so unrecognizable in Star Trek that it almost seemed like he could act. Maybe those makeup people could work with Orlando Bloom.
Will Win/Should Win: Star Trek
(And if the winners don’t say “live longer and prosper” at some point in their acceptance speech I’m gonna be very disappointed)
Best Score
It looks like before the run of the show is even done Lost will be able to boast an Oscar winner in its ranks. Because the creator of those occasionally comically overbearing strings and assorted strange sounds that make up the soundtrack of Lost is gonna waltz to an easy and well-deserved Oscar for his work on Up. In terms of people involved with Lost most likely to someday win an Oscar, I would have put Michael Giacchino several spots below JJ Abrams and Terry O’Quinn and about 80,000 spots above Emilie de Ravin. Just goes to show you never know. But good for him because Up deserves as many Oscars as it can get. And anything that might lead to the world potentially getting to see more of Dug the dog is something I’m all for.
Will Win/Should Win: Up
Best Song
Fun Fact: “The Weary Kind” was co-written by Ryan Bingham, which is the same name as George Clooney’s character in Up in the Air. Pretty crazy right? What are the odds?
And that’s not all.
Another nominee, “Loin de Paname” from Paris 36, has lyrics by Frank Thomas. I’m assuming that’s the famous baseball player Frank Thomas, but I haven’t bothered to verify that. If only there was an entire mini-industry devoted just to covering the Academy Awards and could tell us these things. Alas…
Anyway, Ryan Bingham the character is probably going home empty handed, but Ryan Bingham the person getting himself a real life Oscar is perhaps the surest bet of the night. His song was the most integral to the plot of its film and it is also by far the best song of the nominees. Which is good because now not only will we be able to declare a clear winner in the Battle of the Ryan Binghams, but it will mean that T-Bone Burnett will assume the title of Coolest Named Person to Ever Win an Oscar, narrowly edging out Juicy J and Crunchy Black.
Will Win/Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
Animated Feature
Yeah another Oscar for Up! That being said, don’t sleep on Fantastic Mr. Fox. I know it’s not nominated for Best Picture like Up is, but it’s got a ton of support. And there have been upsets in this category before. And Fox has a more high-profile director and a bigger name cast who are all well-respected and even beloved in the industry. I’m not saying I think it WILL happen, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be shocked if it did. I would however be upset.
Will Win/Should Win: Up
Best Documentary
I’m not as educated on this one as I should be, having only seen Food Inc., but I feel pretty confident that it’s going to win. There’s a strong history of this award going to the most high-profile and most widely seen nominee. And that’s definitely Food Inc. this year. Other than The Cove I’ve never even heard of any of the other nominees. And everyone I know who has seen The Cove says that although it’s good, it’s very disturbing. Almost too disturbing. And although it’s about an important issue, it’s not about one that affects our lives as clearly as the food industry. Enough people have said things about Food Inc. like “It changed my life” that I don’t dare bet against it here. Sure Super Size Me didn’t win, but Food Inc. is infinitely more eye- opening, powerful, and better made. So I say it crushes The Cove just like some fecal matter filled beef made from steroid injected inhumanly slaughtered cows. Which incidentally you probably just ate.
(Nausea. It’s hilarious!)
Will Win/Should Win: Food Inc.
Best Foreign Language Film
Here's another category where I'm not as educated as I should be. (Not the best of years for me.) Of these nominees the only one I’ve seen is The White Ribbon. And it’s great. It’s critically acclaimed. It feels important and lasting and memorable. And so all I know for sure about this category is that the winner won’t be The White Ribbon.
See, the thing with this category is that in order to vote in it you have to have seen all of the nominees in theaters. And not just any theaters, but at special Academy screenings. And so anyone who is actually still active in the industry, or, you know, has a life, isn’t voting in this category. So when choosing a winner for Best Foreign Language Film ask yourself “which nominee would a group of retired 75-90 year old Hollywood-types with a lot of time on their hands like”? There’s a reason that in the past seven years three of the winners were about people dealing with death and two others were about the Holocaust. And true The White Ribbon is in black and white (just like they used to make em!) and deals with the rise of fascism, but it's also three hours long, slower than molasses, and doesn’t have much of a plot or things that “happen” per se. And its artsy as hell. This is not what old people are into. Plus the Palme d’Or winner NEVER wins this category. So The White Ribbon is out. But beyond that it’s anyone’s guess. I want to say Un Prophete, since it’s the only other nominee here with name recognition and mass critical acclaim. But its gonna have a hard time fending off an Israeli movie about Arab-Hebrew relations, a movie about the systematic abuse of women and the rise of socialism in Peru in the 80’s, and a sweeping epic about social and political upheaval in Argentina. I’m gonna go with Un Prophete, but Ajami wouldn’t shock me. Nor would any of the other nominees. Except The White Ribbon. (That was the sound of The White Ribbon producers preparing their acceptance speech).
Will Win: Un Prophete?
Should Win: The White Ribbon (as uneducated an opinion as that might be)
Best Adapted Screenplay
I have a few questions about Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire. First of all, if the novel is called Push then why is the movie called Precious? Also who the hell is Sapphire and where has she been this entire awards season? And what are the odds that someone would name themselves Sapphire and NOT be a stripper? .002%? Even knowing for a fact that Diablo Cody was at one point a stripper, if you had me guess which recent Oscar-affiliated writer was a stripper I would have put everything I own on Sapphire. And lastly, is the Adapted Screenplay nomination for Precious the most redundantly worded Oscar nomination of all time? I cant imagine anything ever has or will top - “Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire from Push by Sapphire”. Can we all just agree to cut off the last part of that statement on Oscar night?
Anyway, Up in the Air is winning here. And thank God. It was looking like my favorite movie of the year was going to get shut out, but luckily it ran up against a pretty weak field of nominees. I mean I love Nick Hornby and I love An Education, but outside of that, none of the rest of these are that noteworthy. District 9 is a fine film, but the screenplay is nothing to write home about. And as good as the screenplay for In the Loop is we can’t give it an award until David Mamet admits that Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche are simply pseudonyms he came up with. And lastly, I have strict rules against giving Oscars to people named after precious metals, no pun intended. (Editor's note: none achieved). Yes I realize Sapphire herself isn’t actually nominated, but just roll with me here.
So it makes me tremendously happy to be able to tell Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner to prepare for a well-deserved Oscar win. And for a pretty awkward and strange acceptance speech considering they just met for the first time a few weeks ago. I can’t wait.
Will Win/Should Win: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
The "Hurt Locker for Best Screenplay" movement seems to be gaining steam, which is great because I’m sure it was very hard to write a script where people stand around not talking. All that pithy non-repartee must have been a real slog to come up with. But you know what I think would be even better? If we gave Quentin Tarantino an Oscar instead. Come on, you know his speech is gonna be outstandingly over-the-top. He’s gonna make Cuba Gooding Jr. look calm and contained by comparison. You gotta be rooting for that. And then there’s his script itself. It's brilliant in terms of plot and structure, but mostly in terms of dialogue. Holy shit that dialogue is good. It’s funny, memorable, smart, and true. Plus it’s in like 18 languages (I might have made that up). What more could you want? Well other than boring people standing around silently diffusing bombs.
Will Win: Inglorious Basterds (barely)
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actor
I’ve talked about my love for Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds previously so no need to rehash it all here. But just know that in any other year Woody Harrleson would win in a walk. In The Messenger he’s magnificent. He’s wonderful. He’s revelatory. And he doesn’t have even the slightest prayer of winning. Nor should he. Because this isn’t any other year. It’s Christoph Waltz’s. We’re just living in it.
(As a side note: would it have killed them to give Zack Galifinakis a nomination? I mean I know comedy isn’t valid and all, but he essentially was the highest grossing comedy of the year. And Hollywood types do love grosses don’t they? No one other than Christoph Waltz was winning this year anyway, what would the harm have been in throwing a harmless nomination Zack’s way? Matt Damon with a silly accent really needed an Oscar nod over arguably the breakout and most talked about performance of the year? Really?)
Will Win/Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress
I can guarantee you three things about the Oscars this year:
1.) Mo'Nique will win Best Supporting Actress
2.) She will take at least 10 minutes walking up to the stage
3.) Her speech will be praised by every media outlet and person you know, yet it will in actuality be pretty standard issue, unmemorable and lacking in any real substance
Look, I have no problem with Mo'Nique winning. She gave the best supporting actress performance this year and it’s hard to even make a case for any of the other nominees. Sure the fact that Mo'Nique has an Oscar will seem ridiculous in a few years but no moreso than a slew of other people who hold that distinction. And she’ll be carrying on a proud tradition of people who won an Oscar for basically one powerhouse scene (Beatrice Straight, Jennifer Connelly, George Clooney, Jennifer Hudson). Hell, probably my all-time favorite supporting actress performance (Kathy Bates in Primary Colors) is a one-note caricature that is redeemed by one powerhouse knock-out stunner of a scene. So I get it. But I just think Mo'Nique is getting a little over-praised. Much like the film itself, her performance up until the very end is so over the top and melodramatic and completely un-nuanced that it not only doesn’t seem realistic but it almost seems laughable. It’s not surprising that the group who once gave Crash their highest prize would seem tone deaf on issues of race and class in America, but here’s a hint for them: If a movie has both Oprah and Tyler Perry attached to it it’s probably not going to be an accurate or deep and probing look into any sort of reality that real people actually deal with. Unless of course they live in an overblown Lifetime movie/misery porn. I’m pretty sure no one is as purely and unequivocally monstrous as Mo'Nique’s character, but heaven forbid you ask audiences to accept shades of grey. (I really need to stop watching so much of The Wire. It's making me ask too much of my entertainment.) Anyway, it would be interesting to see what the reaction to Mo'Nique’s performance, and Mo'Nique herself would be if she had any legitimate competition. But while all the other nominees are fine (well, Maggie Gyllenhaal is badly miscast but whatever) none of them turned in work that I would even remotely classify as “Oscar worthy”. So Mo'Nique it is.
Whatever.
Will Win/Should Win: Mo'Nique
Best Actor
As (almost) always it’s a pretty strong year for Best Actor nominees. No slouches in this bunch. But Jeff Bridges has had this thing locked up for months. And I’m cool with that. It’s an “Oscar” performance. It’s a great character that feels both personal and a bit of a stretch for Jeff Bridges. He’s got some killer scenes and killer moments and he even does his own signing. Plus he’s well-liked and overdue, for what that's worth. And it’s hard for me to say he doesn’t give the best performance of the lot. But. If I had seen A Single Man back when I wrote my Best of 2009 entry, Colin Firth would have made that list for sure. He’s completely unrecognizable, and I don’t mean just in a physical sense. It’s just a stunning transformative piece of work, and the scene when he finds out that his lover is dead is by far the most underrated scene of the year. It’s magnificent. Still, passing the Best Actor torch from DDL to Sean Penn to Colin Firth doesn’t seem quite right. He just doesn’t have that Best Actor heft yet. As soon as he makes more than one movie of substance maybe it’ll be different. Maybe that seems silly and unfair, but that’s how these things work. It’s Jeff Bridges' turn, and there’s nothing Colin or anyone else can do about that. And oh yeah. Mr. Bridges gives a pretty damn great performance himself.
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: (tie) Jeff Bridges & Colin Firth
Best Actress
It’s time to face facts. And one of those facts is that Sandra Bullock is about to win an Academy Award. And not just any Academy Award, but one for the The Blind Side. A movie so insipid and pandering and simplistic and insultingly reductive of complex social issues that of course everyone on my flight home from Houston absolutely loved it. (Oh how I love being a East Coast elitist asshole…) What separates The Blind Side from Remember the Titans, or Glory Road, or The Express, or Pride or any other Disney-fied "based on a true story" feel-good sports movie that makes complicated racial issues palpable and safe enough for white people who find Obama "too black" I don’t know. Well other than the fact that it's nominated for two major Academy Awards. And it's going to win one of them. Which means that future generations of Oscar completeists like myself are going to have to sit through it and think "Really? Really?!?" Which is a shame because I do like Sandra Bullock. She seems genuinely lovely and she's an underrated actress who is in and of herself not undeserving of awards recognition. And her work in The Blind Side is quite good. But sometimes the quality of your movie has to be taken into account. Right? It’s like in sports how the MVP of the league has to come from a winning team unless there are legitimately no other contenders and voters have no choice. Which is pretty much the case here. Helen Mirren is out because no one saw her movie and she just won a few years ago. And Gabourey Sidibe is out because the stuffy old white fogies of the Academy aren’t giving Best Actress to an overweight no-name African American woman. Maybe Best Supporting Actress but not Best Actress. They just aren't. (It's not right, but it’s true. So don’t blame me; like Ben Foster I'm just the messenger). Which leaves Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan. Everyone is saying that Meryl is Sandra's biggest competition, and that may be, but I really don't see her winning. People didn’t really like her movie and it's barely more respectable than The Blind Side. Plus she's only in half of it. And I don’t know that her performance, as great as it is, ever truly transcends the level of impersonation. And other than one scene, it’s kind of a lightweight role, lacking in big "Oscar moments". For anyone else I could maybe see them wining with that part, but we grade Meryl on a different scale and expect more from her than she gave us in Julie & Julia. The movement to get her an Oscar this year feels a lot like the movement to get Martin Scorsese an Oscar for The Aviator. Sure she's overdue, but we've waited this long, why settle for giving her an award for something that’s merely good, when we know she’s capable of transcendence. I just don't sense that voter's hearts are really into Meryl this year no matter how much people might be saying otherwise. Which leaves us with Carey Mulligan. Her movie is nominated for Best Picture and its infinitely more respectable than The Blind Side. She carries pretty much the whole thing herself. She's young and attractive, which if you don’t think is a MAJOR factor then clearly you haven't ever looked at a list of the past winners of Best Actress. And she's British which is a major voting bloc within The Academy. And oh yeah, she also gives the best performance of the year. She has several emotional outbursts/"Oscar scenes". She has a complex role that has nuance and depth that other actresses could easily screw up, yet she handles it with aplomb. But sadly if Meryl is Julie Christie, then I think Carey is Ellen Page. She's too young and unproven, so great as she might be, voters feel like they can wait and will be able to vote for her again in the future. Which leaves Sandra Bullock as Marion Cotillard. But just know this. If someone upsets her its going to be Carey Mulligan not Meryl Streep. And Im rooting for it to happen. That's why my Oscar night chant is going to be "Remember Adrien Brody".
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow is winning here. She’s won nearly all the relevant precursor awards, she’s got momentum, she’s the director of the Best Picture favorite, people seem to like her, and the fact that a woman has never won before is certainly working in her favor. Plus James Cameron has already won before and he’s a massive douche bag that no one in Hollywood likes. But here’s the thing. He took 11 years out of his life to pursue a strange and singular personal passion project. He invented entirely new technology just to make his vision a reality. He waited until it was possible for him to do it entirely on his terms. He made the decision to make it 3D back when 3D was seen as some sort of dated novelty gimmick. And he made it political and relevant and topical when there was absolutely no commercial reason to do so. And he took what on paper must have seemed to anyone who heard about it like an absolutely terrible idea and turned it into a legit Best Picture nominee. There’s absolutely no one else who could have made Avatar as we’re going to find out in the years to come when every director in Hollywood tries. And not that I care about box office results, but it has to be mentioned that James Cameron followed up the highest grossing movie of all time with…the highest grossing movie of all time. It’s impossible to overstate what an incredible and unlikely achievement that is. It's so remarkable that I think in this case, it is worth taking into account. And as strange as it may seem considering his predilection for blockbuster crowd pleasers, James Cameron may be the closest thing Hollywood has to a true auteur. He may be a gaping asshole, but he had by far the most impressive and awards worthy directorial achievement of the year. His movie may not have been the best, but the vision, effort, and ability it took to make it was certainly was. So as much as I would like to see a woman win, I don’t think gender should be at all be a factor in voting. That’s how equality works. But I dont think in this case that that will be how it works.
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: James Cameron
(Hey, did you know they were once married? Someone should really mention that at some point...)
Best Picture
"If you’ve read about Avatar, you know by now that it’s the future of movies. And if you’ve seen it, you know that the future of movies apparently looks a lot like the present of movies – big, expensive, effects driven action." – Mark Harris
I’m going to come off as very anti-Avatar in what's to follow so let me just say up top that I enjoyed Avatar. It’s a good film and it deserves its nomination and its box office success. But what it doesn’t deserve is Best Picture. Because for all its virtues, if you don’t think that in 30 years once its technology is commonplace that Avatar won’t seem like The Greatest Show on Earth or Ben-Hur or any of the countless overblown spectacles that have been nominated for Best picture but didn’t wind up winning then you are sadly delusional. Is Avatar an important film and one that will change the course of film history? Yes, and probably. And I’ve written before about how much I support and am impressed by its politics. But as impressive as those politics may be, the reason the movie has had the success it has and the reason it has its Best Picture nomination is because of its technical achievements. Take the same movie and make it with mid-90’s technology and no one pays attention or cares. And if there’s any type of movie we need to supporting it’s not the overblown blockbuster spectacle with a weak story. Lord knows Hollywood doesn’t need any additional encouragement to pump those out.
Look, The Avatar effect is going to be felt in Hollywood regardless. Ten years from now there’s probably only gonna be like five movies a year featuring real life humans sitting around doing realistic human things in 2D. But still, there’s no need to give filmmakers even more incentive to make Avatar type movies by showing them that they can get Academy Awards that way too. The Oscars are half the reason why any halfway decent movie even gets green-lit by major studios. If the studios can start winning Oscars with blockbusters then the Up in the Air’s of the world never even get out of development meetings. Now as a passionate backer of Lord of the Rings back in the day I realize on the surface I seem a bit hypocritical, but there are a few key differences here. First, The Lord of the Rings movies were based on some of the most beloved and respected books ever written. Their story was rich and complex served to create an entirely new world and with scores of interesting characters in it. Avatar gave us Ferngully in space and characters that for all the film's 3D achievements were strangely two demensional. For example, it would be hard to come up with a more cartoonishly over the top villain than General Shouty McEvil Pants or whatever his name was. Also, in Lord of the Rings the technology always seemed to be in service of the story. In Avatar the technology overwhelmed it. The story seemed to exist only to show off the technology. And if you don’t think that’s true then ask yourself how well the movie is going to play at home on DVD in 2D. A great movie should be great in any setting, not just on an IMAX screen wearing silly glasses. So I'm not opposed to blockbusters or big budget spectacles, Im just opposed to ones that make those elements secondary to story, character development, dialogue, and exploration of the human condition. Don't forget, Lord of the Rings won Best Screenplay. Avatar isnt even nominated.
So this year’s Best Picture race isn’t just a battle for the title of Best Picture, it is, in many ways, a battle between competing ideologies. A battle to declare what we as a people value in our art. A battle for what type of movies should be made and should be rewarded. And that’s why it's so encouraging to see that The Academy is leaning towards The Hurt Locker.
Now The Hurt Locker is a movie I respect and appreciate more than love and enjoy. I much prefer Up in the Air. It’s better acted, better written, and better made, and speaks more clearly to our times and our lives. It’s the movie that will best serve as our representative to future generations of this year. Not just this year in film, but this year on Earth. But you’ll get no real complaints from me if The Hurt Locker wins. Anything but Avatar is my mantra. Which is why I'm revelling in the irony of the fact that The Academy’s wrongheaded decision to open the Best Picture race up to 10 nominees is going to ultimately be Avatar’s downfall. In their attempt to get more commercial nominees, The Academy ensured that its most commercial nominee ever is going to lose the top prize. Because with the switch in the number of nominees they also switched the voting system. Used to be that only 1st place votes really mattered. But now voters have to rank the movies from 1 to 10 and essentially the movie with the best cumulative score wins. It’s actually slightly more complicated than that, but for our purposes that explanation will do.
So with the new system the movie that has the broadest support will likely be the winner. Now this is the first time this voting system has ever been used so it’s hard to predict with certainty how it will play out, but it would seem that the movie that is not necessarily the most liked but rather the movie that is the least disliked will win. And that’s where the fact that the average age of an Academy voter is 57.7 years old comes into play. See there’s a reason that before this year only two (or three depending on how you view ET) sci-fi films have ever been nominated for Best Picture. There’s a reason it took Lord of the Rings three tries to win Best Picture, and why ET lost to Gandhi, and why The Dark Knight got snubbed last year. Oscar voters are OLD. And old people aren’t generally that into loud noisy action scenes or weird creatures doing sci-fi type things. Those types of movies don’t seem to carry the type of artistic heft that your typical older voter is looking for in their Best Picture. I can see a lot of people ranking Avatar very high, but I can also see a whole lot of 70 and 80 year olds ranking it dead last on their ballots. And I can see a whole lot of people doing the same thing just out of spite. The Hurt Locker is safe and inoffensive and hard to hate. Sure it had explosions and action, but not in an action movie sense. War movies have been around since the dawn of film and have won Best Picture on several occasions. Old people can deal with that sort of action. There is strong precident for that type of action winning. And even if The Hurt Locker wasn’t your FAVORITE film of the year you probably liked it. And you’re gonna rank at least a few of the other nominees below it. And in fact there’s a quite sizeable block of people that feel passionately that it’s the year’s best film. It’s nearly swept all the critics’ awards. And normally the movie that does that doesn’t win Best Picture. This year though we need it to. We need the critics’ darling to defeat the blockbuster special effects extravaganza. (Hyperbolic statement alert) The future of movies depends on it.
And since I opened this section with a quote from Entertainment Weekly I’ll let EW film critic and Hurt Locker backer Owen Glieberman have the last word here:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Up in the Air
Look, The Avatar effect is going to be felt in Hollywood regardless. Ten years from now there’s probably only gonna be like five movies a year featuring real life humans sitting around doing realistic human things in 2D. But still, there’s no need to give filmmakers even more incentive to make Avatar type movies by showing them that they can get Academy Awards that way too. The Oscars are half the reason why any halfway decent movie even gets green-lit by major studios. If the studios can start winning Oscars with blockbusters then the Up in the Air’s of the world never even get out of development meetings. Now as a passionate backer of Lord of the Rings back in the day I realize on the surface I seem a bit hypocritical, but there are a few key differences here. First, The Lord of the Rings movies were based on some of the most beloved and respected books ever written. Their story was rich and complex served to create an entirely new world and with scores of interesting characters in it. Avatar gave us Ferngully in space and characters that for all the film's 3D achievements were strangely two demensional. For example, it would be hard to come up with a more cartoonishly over the top villain than General Shouty McEvil Pants or whatever his name was. Also, in Lord of the Rings the technology always seemed to be in service of the story. In Avatar the technology overwhelmed it. The story seemed to exist only to show off the technology. And if you don’t think that’s true then ask yourself how well the movie is going to play at home on DVD in 2D. A great movie should be great in any setting, not just on an IMAX screen wearing silly glasses. So I'm not opposed to blockbusters or big budget spectacles, Im just opposed to ones that make those elements secondary to story, character development, dialogue, and exploration of the human condition. Don't forget, Lord of the Rings won Best Screenplay. Avatar isnt even nominated.
So this year’s Best Picture race isn’t just a battle for the title of Best Picture, it is, in many ways, a battle between competing ideologies. A battle to declare what we as a people value in our art. A battle for what type of movies should be made and should be rewarded. And that’s why it's so encouraging to see that The Academy is leaning towards The Hurt Locker.
Now The Hurt Locker is a movie I respect and appreciate more than love and enjoy. I much prefer Up in the Air. It’s better acted, better written, and better made, and speaks more clearly to our times and our lives. It’s the movie that will best serve as our representative to future generations of this year. Not just this year in film, but this year on Earth. But you’ll get no real complaints from me if The Hurt Locker wins. Anything but Avatar is my mantra. Which is why I'm revelling in the irony of the fact that The Academy’s wrongheaded decision to open the Best Picture race up to 10 nominees is going to ultimately be Avatar’s downfall. In their attempt to get more commercial nominees, The Academy ensured that its most commercial nominee ever is going to lose the top prize. Because with the switch in the number of nominees they also switched the voting system. Used to be that only 1st place votes really mattered. But now voters have to rank the movies from 1 to 10 and essentially the movie with the best cumulative score wins. It’s actually slightly more complicated than that, but for our purposes that explanation will do.
So with the new system the movie that has the broadest support will likely be the winner. Now this is the first time this voting system has ever been used so it’s hard to predict with certainty how it will play out, but it would seem that the movie that is not necessarily the most liked but rather the movie that is the least disliked will win. And that’s where the fact that the average age of an Academy voter is 57.7 years old comes into play. See there’s a reason that before this year only two (or three depending on how you view ET) sci-fi films have ever been nominated for Best Picture. There’s a reason it took Lord of the Rings three tries to win Best Picture, and why ET lost to Gandhi, and why The Dark Knight got snubbed last year. Oscar voters are OLD. And old people aren’t generally that into loud noisy action scenes or weird creatures doing sci-fi type things. Those types of movies don’t seem to carry the type of artistic heft that your typical older voter is looking for in their Best Picture. I can see a lot of people ranking Avatar very high, but I can also see a whole lot of 70 and 80 year olds ranking it dead last on their ballots. And I can see a whole lot of people doing the same thing just out of spite. The Hurt Locker is safe and inoffensive and hard to hate. Sure it had explosions and action, but not in an action movie sense. War movies have been around since the dawn of film and have won Best Picture on several occasions. Old people can deal with that sort of action. There is strong precident for that type of action winning. And even if The Hurt Locker wasn’t your FAVORITE film of the year you probably liked it. And you’re gonna rank at least a few of the other nominees below it. And in fact there’s a quite sizeable block of people that feel passionately that it’s the year’s best film. It’s nearly swept all the critics’ awards. And normally the movie that does that doesn’t win Best Picture. This year though we need it to. We need the critics’ darling to defeat the blockbuster special effects extravaganza. (Hyperbolic statement alert) The future of movies depends on it.
And since I opened this section with a quote from Entertainment Weekly I’ll let EW film critic and Hurt Locker backer Owen Glieberman have the last word here:
“It’s worth taking a moment to point out why, for Academy voters, the box office has always been such a crucial factor. The vulgar way to put it would be: Hollywood, in the end, is all about the bottom line, and so a movie that doesn’t “perform” isn’t eligible, according to the industry’s core values, for the most coveted of honors.(I couldn’t have said it better myself. Although lord knows I tried.)
(But) if The Hurt Locker wins this year’s Academy Award for Best Picture, it will in many ways fracture that essential crowd-pleasing code. Sure, the movie swept the critics’ awards, but that’s never been such a dominant criteria for Hollywood. (If it were, the Oscar for Best Picture would likely have gone to GoodFellas, or Nashville, or Pulp Fiction.) To me, it would be fantastic if The Hurt Locker won, because it would effectively redefine the Oscars as an arena where a work of art, its (minor) success driven by critical praise, could compete on a level playing field. If The Hurt Locker wins, it will really be the culmination of a trend that began back in 1996, the year of Fargo and Shine and Secrets & Lies, when the Oscar nominations were, for the first time, dominated by “small” independent releases. Sure, a handful of indie films (like No Country for Old Men) have won Best Picture since, but before doing so they effectively crossed over and became modest mainstream hits.
I’d like to go back to the sole point I made in (an) earlier, myopic post that I think was accurate. I said that the battle between Up in the Air and Avatar would be the most symbolic Oscar race since Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction back in 1994/1995. . . . Okay, Up in the Air, while a respectable hit, didn’t forge quite the emotional connection with a lot of the audience that I’d wanted it to. But even if I did have the wrong movie, I think I had the right point: With The Hurt Locker now having all but vacuumed up the year’s critical acclaim, and with Avatar having just this week become the top-grossing domestic movie of all time, Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker is an awesomely symbolic race. It’s a clash of size, values, popularity — of essential notions of What Movie Art Is in the 21st century. A Hurt Locker victory would open the door to a new definition of Oscar glory, a defiant celebration of artistry over commerce. A win for Avatar would be, in its way, a definitive assertion of the same old same old. That’s why, more than in quite a long time, I genuinely hope that Best Picture this year goes to the best picture.”
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Up in the Air
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