Ready to win your Oscar pool? Want to sound smart while watching the Oscars? Want to kill an hour of your life you'll never get back reading an overlong, obsessive, and nerdy breakdown of every single category of what will surely be a dull and uninspiring Oscars cemermony celebrating winners you dont care about from one of the weakest years in film of my lifetime? Then the wait is over! Because my annual Oscar ballot breakdown is here.
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Live Action Short Film
What I imagine each of these five films is about based solely on their titles:
Pentecost - A hilarious comedy of misunderstandings when an everyday guy suddenly begins uncontrollably speaking in tongues
Raju - The story of a Japanese tomato sauce company
The Shore - A biopic of Lord of the Rings composer Howard Shore
Time Freak - A mini prequel to Time Bandits
Tuba Atlantic - Set in a futuristic society where a series of tubes span the Atlantic Ocean allowing a grown man to be reunited with his family in Africa that he was forcibly separated from as a small child. Or it's about a tuba.
Should Win: Five way tie, probably
Will Win: The Shore, maybe
Documentary Short
I haven't seen any of these but after reading a fascinating feature in Entertainment Weekly about Mother Dolores Hart I'm really pulling for God is the Bigger Elvis. Also because it's title is God is the Bigger Elvis. And after all do we really need yet another documentary about Pakistani women getting acid thrown in their faces by their family? Oh...we do? Okay, then Saving Face it is.
Should Win: Saving Face
Will Win: Saving Face
Documentary Feature
Cant say it was a banner year for documentaries. I love documentaries and make a point to see as many in theaters as I can, and even I am only vaguely familiar with a few of these. And I don't remember any of them getting wide theatrical releases. That's not necessarily a signifier of their quality, but still, it seems like a pretty slight lineup. A doc about a high school football team, a 3D dance film, and one called If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front? I mean even Fall Out Boy heard that title and thought it sounded ridiculous. So my best guess is Paradise Lost 3 because the West Memphis Three was the year's most prominent celebrity cause celebre. But at this point they've had more movies made about them than Abraham Lincoln, so everyone might be a little burned out on the whole thing. And it was really more of an HBO documentary than a theatrical feature. So who really knows.
Should Win: Paradise Lost 3
Will Win: Paradise Lost 3
Animated Short
Always go with the Pixar one.
Should Win: La Luna
Will Win: La Luna
Animated Feature
Speaking of which...you go over there and sit in the corner Pixar and think about what you did. Or rather what you didn't do. Which is even be nominated for an award that is unofficially known as the "Randy Newman Best Pixar Movie of the Year Award". I mean, a Shrek spin-off starring Antonio Banderas was judged to be better than anything you did this year. So you just sit over there and think long and hard about your decision to make Cars 2. And I need three new Brave trailers from you before you can come out of timeout.
Should Win: I Don't Know. I Don't See Non-Pixar Animated Films. It's Heresy.
Will Win: Rango
Sound Mixing
War! Horses! Things that make a lot of sound!
Should Win: War Horse
Will Win: War Horse
Sound Editing
I have no idea what sound editing is, but I do know Drive should have an Oscar. And this is the only one it's nominated for. So, you know, way to edit that sound people who made Drive!
(I'm apparently very excited about the mixing and editing of sound!!!)
Should Win: Drive
Will Win: War Horse
Original Score
I would say the score from The Artist is out of it, but after Roman Polanski's victory in 2002 there is precedent for rapists winning Oscars. Plus, I think we can all agree that Kim Novak was kind of asking for it.
Should Win: The Artist
Will Win: The Artist
Original Song
If you were to sit in a lab and try and come up with the most Oscar worthy song of all time - prominently featured in the movie, integral to the plot, catchy, memorable, well written, uplifting message - I would be hard to do better than "Life's a Happy Song". So of course the only song nominated from The Muppets is "Man or Muppet". Sometimes the Oscars make no sense.
Whatever. Bret McKenzie is winning and giving a charming and funny speech and is halfway to EGOTing (and if you don't think there's a Tony in his future you're insane). FOTC 4 EVA!
Should Win: "Man or Muppet
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Visual Effects
This is a makeup award for snubbing Andy Serkis in the Supporting Actor category. But how great would it be if there's an upset and the Hugh Jackman robot boxing movie becomes the Academy Award Winning Hugh Jackman robot boxing movie? (And by "great" I mean "a mockery of all things holy")
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Art Direction
Oh no, do you realize that according to my predictions here Hugo hasn't won any Oscars yet?? Time to fix that.
Should Win: Hugo
Will Win: Hugo
Costume Design
To quote myself from last year "As I always say, when in doubt go with either Colleen Atwood or Sandy Powell". Colleen Atwood isn't nominated. Sandy Powell is nominated for Hugo. Hugo it is then.
Should Win: Hugo
Will Win: Hugo
Makeup
Pretty sure the J. Edgar makeup team was just a front organization set up by the Iron Lady makeup team to make them look brilliant by comparison. If so, well done.
Should Win: The Iron Lady
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Film Editing
Okay, so confession time: I don't really know what an editor does. I mean I know what an editor does. They're probably the most important person the entire film making process. But I don't know how much of what the editor does is the director and how much is them. And unless the movie has really obvious editing like Moulin Rouge, or The Bourne Ultimatum, I really have no idea how to judge the quality of an editor's work. So while this award is probably going to The Artist because of the usual correlation between this Best Editing and Best Picture, Girl With the Dragon Tattoo felt the most edit-y to me of the nominees. But what do I know? (Nothing)
Should Win: Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Will Win: The Artist
Cinematography
LUBEZKI VS. KAMINSKI BITCHES!!!!!!!!
In either a statement on either the overall uninspiring nature of the rest of this year's nominees or on my level of Oscar-nerddom, but this is BY FAR the category I'm most looking forward to on Oscar night. I've been thinking about this one for months. Since well before the nominations even came out. (Okay yeah, I'm gonna lean more towards the major Oscar-nerd angle.) But seriously what more would you want out of a contest? The two best non-Roger Deakins cinematographers working today. Both at the absolute top of their games. Duking it out mano-a-mano. Okay yes, there are technically other nominees. And actually both Robert Richardson for Hugo and Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist have legitimate shots here (no pun intended). But even if theres a mini-sweep for either of those movies I don't think the voters will be able to deny the overwhelming beauty of the colors and lighting and compositions of War Horse and Tree of Life. In the end, I think (and pray) it will be Lubezki, because no matter what someone thought of Tree of Life any person who saw it would have to agree that it was visually stunning. And also because its a crime that Lubezki has never won. His losing in 2006 for Children of Men is right up there with Crash over Brokeback and Hooper over Fincher on the list of great Oscar injustices of the past 10 years. So (fingers crossed) TEAM LUBEZKI FTW!!!!!
Should Win: Tree of Life
Will Win: Tree of Life
Foreign Language Film
A Separation was the highest profile, highest grossing and most critically acclaimed foreign film of the year. It's from the political hotbed of Iran. It's the only nominee here to get a wide release. It was on nearly every critic's year end top 10 list. So it's probably losing to the Polish Holocaust movie
Should Win: A Separation
Will Win: In Darkness
Adapted Screenplay
Hardest race for me to call in years. My gut and heart say Moneyball. Logic and evidence say The Descendants. My brain says "what the hell was Tinker Tailor Solider Spy even about". And absolutely no one anywhere is saying anything about Ides of March.
On paper its not actually hard to call at all. Based on precursor awards The Descendants is a borderline lock here. And this is historically the place to reward the movie that everyone in the Academy liked but found a little too "indie" to vote for for Best Picture. Normally the screenplay awards are kind of the silver medals of the night, but even though I think Hugo is coming in second place in the Best Picture race there doesn't seem to be any real affection for its screenplay. And even as someone on Team Hugo I would it's screenplay isn't really its strongest element. Which is why I'm pulling for Moneyball, a great movie in which its script was its strongest element. Also, Sorkin! And also I refuse to believe I live in a world where The Descendants is actually a hugely beloved masterpiece. But mostly, Sorkin!
But alas, the world often makes no sense. Speaking of which, can someone please explain Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy to me? That shit made Tree of Life seem like "See Spot Run".
Should Win: Moneyball
Will Win: The Descendants (by a hair)
Original Screenplay
A race between a movie where people don't talk like real people, one where people don't talk at all, and one where people poop in sink.
Without looking, how many Oscar nominations do you think Woody Allen has for screenwriting? If you said 15 you were probably cheating, but you'd also be right. And yet despite being by far the most nominated writer of all time I would argue he still doesn't know how to write realistic sounding dialogue. Now "still doesn't know" isn't quite fair because once upon a time he did somewhat. Annie Hall is my favorite movie of all time. And the dialogue there all rings true in terms of sounding like believable human speech. But as the way people talk and the things they talk about have changed Woody just hasn't kept up. Its why his best screenplays form the past 20 years (Bullets Over Broadway, Sweet & Lowdown, the time travel sections of Midnight in Paris) were all movies set in the past. Because then the highly mannered and jarringly unmodern dialogue wasn't distracting and out of place. But at this point, when Woody Allen tries to write contemporary characters they all wind up sounding like bizarro David Mamet characters only, unlike Mamet, in Woody's case its not a purposeful stylistic choice. He really seems to think that's how people actually talk. I guess thats what happens when the only place you've been in America in the past 30 years is the Upper East Side of Manhattan, which as a former longtime UES resident myself I can attest is TOTALLY representative of the mainstream contemporary America.
Whatever. Woody is still winning this thing because they're not giving it to the comedy with the sink pooping, and they're not giving a writing award to a script with maybe four total pages of written dialogue. And clearly, as the 15 nominations should attest, there's a ton of affection in the Academy for the Woodman. And yes, Midnight in Paris was his best film in years. And sure it was incredibly slight and not really awards-worthy, but in the year of The Artist "incredibly slight and not really awards-worthy" seems to be the name of the game. So Midnight in Paris it is.
Should Win: Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Will Win: Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Supporting Actress
Okay now that we're into the acting categories you're gonna here a lot of "ugh"s from me. But UGH is Octavia Spencer really going to win an Oscar for her work in The Help? The answer is yes, as I well aware, but why? What does she do in The Help that is awards worthy? What does she do that's even believably human? Bug her eyes out really wide? Act like a cartoon version of a sassy black maid? You know how everyone says that Viola Davis brings a much needed level of elegance and restraint to The Help? Well Octavia Spencer's performances is what they're saying that in response to. Its like her and Viola are in completely separate movies. Viola is in a serious drama about real people facing serious problems and Octavia is in a broad slapstick Adam Sandler movie. So why is she the runaway favorite for ths award? What am I missing here? It must be her long storied history of great work. That's probably it right? Well good, because if she didn't have that going for her then I would worry that maybe Octavia Spencer having an Oscar might seem Roberto Begini-levels of ridiculous in 10 years. Thank goodness that wont be the case here!
Should Win: Janet McTeer
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Supporting Actor
UGH. These are all fine performances. I like them all. But none of them really generate any enthusiasm. And it's strange to me that someone (specifically, Christopher Plummer) will win an Oscar for one of them. But I guess after Alan Arkin won an Oscar for his role in Little Miss Sunshine all bets are off. So even though at no point while watching Beginners did I think, "Christopher Plummer is giving a Academy Award-worthy performance right now!", things could be worse. And though I'm sad to see probably the best four year stretch of Supporting Actor (or maybe any category ever) winners in Oscar history end, I guess a long overdue Christopher Plummer doing fine work in a super awards-bait-y role in a great film is as good a place to end as any.
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Will Win: Chistopher Plummer
Actress
So much was said about Bridesmaids this year that the fact that it was a banner year for women dramas was really overlooked. But this is one the best group of Best Actress nominees ever. I mean most years they have trouble coming up with even five deserving nominees. Yet year I Tilda Swinton, Charlize Theron, and Elizabeth Olsen could all lay claim to the term "egregiously snubbed". Only I don't know who you would bump out of the five nominees to make room for them. (Rooney Mara. You would bump Rooney Mara). There are plenty of years where Glen Close would be the heavy favorite. And this year she'll do good to come in 4th place. Really enough cant be said about what a strong group of nominees these are and about how far superior they are to their male counterparts (I'll get to them in a minute).
That being said, I don't really have a strong opinion about who should win. Viola Davis is the best I guess, but it seems weird that Best Actress is going to go to what feels like simply a very big supporting role in a a movie like The Help. Meryl Streep would win in a walk if The Iron Lady just focused on Margaret Thatchers older dementia years. Unfortunately Maryl isn't quite as good in the Margaret Thatcher being Margaret Thatcher stuff, and the movie itself is pretty awful. If it was even 40% better I think this race would be a lot tighter than it is. Also Meryl will be back next year for August: Osage County, which if you thought dementia-ridden Margaret Thatcher was an awards bait role, then you aint seen nothin yet.
If you had asked me three months ago I would have said my pick was Michelle Williams, just because I was almost laughably skeptical of her ability to play Marilyn Monroe and yet she completely won me over. I also would have put down a lot of money on her pulling an Adrien Brody style upset. But the more distance I have from seeing the movies, the more Viola Davis' work has stayed with me whereas Michelle Williams' has faded a bit. And Viola Davis also seems to have definitely pulled away from the pack enough that I think an upset is highly unlikely. She's a very respectable choice, and a person who is easy to root for, and someone whose career will be greatly helped by winning an Oscar. And the allegations of racism hurled unfairly at the Academy last year certainly don't hurt her chances. So I'm good with her winning. I just wish she was winning for something a little less middlebrow than The Help.
Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: Viola Davis
Actor
I think this is probably the weakest group of Best Actor nominees in my life time. If None of The Above were an option on the ballot I bet it would win in a landslide. I dont sense any real enthusaism for any of these nominees from anyone. If I HAD to pick I'd go with Michael Fassbender, but, oh wait, he's not nominated because the Academy doesnt like penises. My second pick would be Leonardo DiCaprio but he's also not nominated (I know, I know, but once you get past the makeup and the Clint Eastwood factor, I think its actually Leo's best work). So of the nominees the performance I liked the best was Brad Pitt. But theres no way thats an Oscar winning role. I know if I liked it the best then its silly to say its not the most desreving, but what I responded to in the performance was how easy and effortless and real it seemed. "Easy" and "effortless" should not be the first two adjectives used to describe what we are going to be holding up to future generations as the finest acting work produced in the year 2011. Mister Congeniality this award is not. And yet we're about to give it to Jean Dujardin for essentially being charming and French and in the movie we liked the best.
Demian Bichir probably did the best acting job here, but his was basically a glorified supporting part and no one saw his movie. And why Gary Oldman is even nominated is beyond me. I've seen wallpaper be more engaging than he was. And we can't really give George Clooney an Oscar for playing George Clooney. At no point in the movie did I believe that he wasnt George Clooney. At least with Brad Pitt I bought him as a completely differenet person. And that seems kind of like the whole point of acting right? Which brings us back to Jean Dujardin. He was clearly acting. He used his face and body to express emotions. He played a person who, since we've never seen him before, we can convince ourselves was unlike himself. I believed him as a human being. He danced at one point. That's a difficult skill to learn. Pretty sure I remember a scene where he cried. He's handsome. And French.
OSCAR IT IS!
UUUUGGGGHHH
Should Win: Ugh, Jean Dujardin, I guess?
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Director
Important fact: this award is called Best Director not Person That Directed The Best Picture Winner. It's actually a whole separate thing. And if there was ever a time to treat it as such it's now. Because whle Michel Hazanavicius did a fine job, he was merely copying the styles of filmmakers past. Terrance Malick on the other hand created something totally new. Something with a clear personal style. Something that couldnt have been made by anyone else. When I went to see Tree of Life at the Arclight it was introduced as Terrance Malick's Tree of Life, so strong was his personal stamp on it. You could maybe argue that The Descendants and Midnight in Paris bear their creator's stamp just as strongly, but I'd argue that's more a function of their scripts than of their visual styles. And Hugo is clearly a Martin Scorsese film. But also it's totally NOT a Martin Scorsese film. In many ways thats whats most interesting about it. Plus he just won. The Artist though could have been directed by anyone with a film school education and few months to research old silent films. But Michel Hazanavicius won the DGA and directed the Best Picture favorite which means he's got this thing in the bag.
UGH.
At least he's not Tom Hooper.
Should Win: Terrance Malick
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Picture
I've made my peace with The Artist winning. I did it while walking out of the theater in fact. I was outraged over Crash, confused over Slumdog, unenthused by The Hurt Locker, and disheartened by The Kings Speech, but by now as long its not something terrible or defeats something FAR more deserving I'm really worn down by caring about this stuff to care much any more. The Artist is a perfectly fine movie. Its a lighter-than-air instantly forgettable triffle. It's not about anything, has nothing to say about the world, and doesn't in any way reflect the time in which it was made. But it's well done and likable.
As Ive made clear elsewhere I thought Tree of Life was by far the best movie of the year. It was moving and beautiful and original and it tackled big questions and ideas in big thought-provoking ways. It was challenging and visionary and like nothing else I'd ever seen. So of course it has no chance to win.
Of the nominees with a realistic shot of winning I much preferred Hugo to The Artist. It had more weight, more emotion, more skill behind it, and a grander more Oscar-worthy sweep. But it's hard for me to criticize The Artist for not being about anything important or reflecting its time and then make a big case for Hugo. So fine, The Artist it is. Removed from the novelty of "hey its a silent black and white movie in 2011!" there's no way The Artist holds up even ten years from now. 50 years from now when people do rankings of all the Best Picture winners in history The Artist is going to easily be in the bottom 20. And if it achieves "somewhat amusing afterthought" status in the annals of film history I think that's its absolute best case scenario. I think more likely people very will look back at the 2011 Oscar results and think, "WTF, were we all drunk when we decided The Artist was the very best movie of the entire year?" But you know what, if in the moment, a well made and charming black and white silent movie winning Best Picture is the best way to encourage the film industry to take chances then I'm okay with that. A French silent black and white movie about old Hollywood may not have anything relevant to say about our world today, but it winning Best Picture does. And at this point that's really my bar for Best Picture satisfaction. And hey, maybe in the year of Mitt Romney The Artist winning Best Picture is even more relevant than I think.
GO UNENTHUSIASM!!! You're the best!
Should Win: Tree of Life, but also Hugo
Will Win: The Artist
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