Oscar Preview 2014: What Can Keep Gravity Down?

Need far too many words about and picks for every category at this year's Oscars? Need to know if Gravity is indeed an undeniable force? (sorry, had to.) Then read on...

Visual Effects

So I’ll kick this thing off with my little spiel on Gravity:

Gravity is a great film. Original, suspenseful, breathtaking, and masterfully made, but will all the hype and accolades given to it this year seem utterly ridiculous 50 years from now? I think they will. Because if there was ever a movie that’s not going to age well it’s a movie that’s almost entirely a special effects showpiece. Now I know there was a great suspenseful narrative and a wonderful performance by Sandra Bullock at the heart of the film, but ultimately none of that matters if the movie doesn’t create a stunningly realistic you-are-really-there vision of outer space. And with technology becoming outdated at record speeds I seriously doubt that even 20 years from now the outer space of Gravity will look anything other than cheesy and fake. This is why making “NEW” the main selling point of anything is both a blessing and a curse. But I guess with Gravity we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now the Academy can already start engraving this statue.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity

Sound Mixing

Sound Editing

Are they two technical awards that seem basically interchangeable and that 98% of the voters have no real way to objectively quantify or judge? Then give them to Gravity!

Will Win: Gravity!

Should Win: Gravity?

Live Action Short

I haven’t seen any of these but by all accounts Just Before Losing Everything is supposed to be the best of the bunch. But its also the longest and subtitled. Everyone seems to be picking The Voorman Problem instead because its in English and stars Martin Freeman, the only recognizable name/face in the category. I’m gonna go the other way and predict that the people willing to vote for this category are too old to care who Martin Freeman is and have penty of time to sit through and soak in the only 30-minute-long Just Before Losing Everything.

Will Win: Just Before Losing Everything

Should Win: Who knows

Animated Short

I actually have a strong and educated opinion on this! I didn’t see all of the nominees like I often do, but I did see Get a Horse! and there's no way it’s losing. It’s a tribute to old Hollywood (check) and the magic and craft of movie making (check) but it uses new technology and new techniques to feel inventive and original (check). It’s the first animated Disney film to ever be directed by a woman (check), it’s produced by modern animation god John Lasseter (check), has the power of the Disney machine behind it (check), and features a voice performance by freaking Walt Disney himself (all of the checks). This is a lock.

Will Win: Get a Horse!

Should Win: Get a Horse!

Documentary Short

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a 109-year-old piano-playing Holocaust survivor (who died during the final week of Oscar voting!). So thanks for coming all other nominees, but you’re no longer needed because The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR (WHO DIED DURING THE FINAL WEEK OF OSCAR VOTING)

Will Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR

Should Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR

Production Design

They should just rename this award the Baz Luhrmann Award. (By which I really mean the Catherine Martin Award. But whatever.)

In related news, congrats to Wes Anderson for winning next year’s Baz Luhrmann/Catherine Martin Award for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel!

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Costume Design

When in doubt with this category ask yourself, did any of the nominees this year inspire their own collection at Brooks Brothers or Tiffanys? If still in doubt, ask yourself, did any of the nominees involve lavish period party scenes with thousands of costumed extras? And if still in doubt, ask yourself did any of the nominees contain a memorable scene where Leonardo DiCaprio literally threw costumes directly into the camera? If the answer to all of these is yes then you have your winner.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Original Song

It seems weird that the Year of Pharrell isn’t going to capped by an Oscar win for Pharrell, but unfortunately it seems that nothing is going to stand in the way of Robert Lopez EGOTing for “Let It Go”. Now considering Robert Lopez’s Emmy is only a Daytime Emmy I don’t think it should count as a true EGOT. And also, since this category doesn’t contain Lana Del Rey’s “Young and Beautiful” its results shouldn’t count anyway. But whatever. I expected a bit more from the composer of Avenue Q and Book of Mormon than “Let It Go”, but it’s gonna be a Broadway staple from now until the sun explodes so I guess it winning here is fine. But seriously, go listen to “Young and Beautiful” again. It will make you feel all of the feelings. The ones that “Let It Go” is only playing at.

Will Win: “Let It Go”

Should Win: “Happy” (but also “Young and Beautiful”)

Original Score

Considering how little dialogue there actually was in Gravity it relied on its score far more than any of the other nominated movies. And since none of these scores were particularly memorable on their own, voters will just think back to which one they remembered being most impactful on its film. And Gravity’s certainly was the most obvious in that regard. But it also felt like it could have been made by pretty much anyone and plugged into pretty much any epic high-class adventure movie. 

Win Butler’s score for Her though could have only been made by members of Arcade Fire and only been used for Her. It helped vividly create the world in which Her takes place, filling in what the production design and costumes couldn’t. It created a mood, yet felt unobtrusive while doing it. That sort of work doesn’t generally win awards, but it should. Plus how cool would it be to add Arcade Fire (or basically Arcade Fire) to the list of unexpected music branch Oscar winners alongside Eminem, Three 6 Mafia and Trent Reznor? To answer my own question, it would be awesome.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Her

Makeup

Please let it be Jackass. Please let it be Jackass. Please let an actual human being say the sentence “And the Oscar goes to Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”. Oh please sweet lord in heaven let it be Jackass.

(Spoiler alert: It won’t be Jackass)

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Film Editing

Uhhhhhh…..

I have no idea.

And when in doubt this year go with Gravity.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity I guess

Cinematography

Lubezki!

Finally, a chance to make up for one of the all time Oscar travesties: Emmanuel Lubezki not winning for Children of Men. Or for Tree of Life. Or for anything he’s ever done. But there’s a zero percent chance that doesn’t get remedied this year.

You’re up next Roger Deakins

(Fun fact: Did you know that Emmanuel Lubezki also shot Reality Bites???)

(Fun fact II: Did you know that I have friends?)

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: Gravity

Documentary Feature

This is a tough one. I haven’t actually seen any of these, but feel like I know enough about them to make a pretty informed guess.

This category has really changed since the old days when the winner used to always be the most depressing talking head documentary they could find. In recent years populist and relatively uplifting films like Searching for Sugarman, Undefeated, Man on Wire and March of the Penguins have all won. Which would seem to point to 20 Feet From Stardom winning this year. But it seems like Act of Killing has been seen by just as many, if not more people, it’s supposed to be undeniably powerful, and despite the changing nature of the category I still say genocide tops underappreciated backup singers. But I could easily be wrong.

Will Win: Act of Killing

Should Win: Act of Killing

Animated Film

I haven’t seen any of these because I’m strictly ride or die Team Pixar but Frozen is made by Disney (which is Pixar-adjacent), is pulling in Titanic money and good reviews, and has what seems like particularly weak competition. So congrats to Frozen for coming out the year before The Lego Movie is eligible to win all of the awards ever.

Will Win: Frozen

Should Win: Frozen

Foreign Language Film

I find it hard to believe that these were truly the five best foreign language films released last year as none of these had anything even remotely approaching a wide release. But then there’s a long and storied history of this category making no sense so this year is really just par for the course.

While most Oscar prognosticators are saying that The Hunt is coming on strong I’m going to stick with the only nominee that I remember playing at multiple theaters around Los Angeles in the past few months: The Great Beauty.

Will Win: The Great Beauty

Should Win: wish I knew

Adapted Screenplay

It's absurd that Before Midnight is up for adapted screenplay. The reason given for the classification is that it's based on existing characters, but by that logic every screenplay to a sequel should be an adapted screenplay. Which would be idiotic. But whatever.

Before Midnight is in the running for my all-time favorite film and that's largely on the strength of its screenplay. The magic of the Before movies is that watching them is like being able to eavesdrop on the greatest conversations of all time. The dialogue is what we wish we could all sound like when we talk. But it has an ease and naturalness to it that barely makes it seem like dialogue at all. It's the platonic ideal of a screenplay. But it has no shot here. Because 12 Years a Slave feels too important not to give it to. Which I'm fine with. It's a worthy winner. But in another world, in another life, Before Midnight winning sure would be nice.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Before Midnight

Original Screenplay

Woody Allen is Woody Allen and if there’s ever a year Woody Allen isn’t winning an Oscar it’s this one. Dallas Buyers Club is already likely winning three other awards so voters will feel like it’s been honored enough. So that leaves three Best Picture nominees who likely aren’t going to win anything else. So which one does the Academy want to throw a bone to? Well you can never count Alexander Payne out of a screenplay race, only Nebraska wasn’t written by Alexander Payne, it was written by Bob Nelson, and no one knows who Bob Nelson is (and having the worlds most generic name probably isn’t helping with that). So that leaves David O. Russell for American Hustle (can some rapper please use the line “I’m an American hustle like David O. Russell”?) or Spike Jonze for Her.

American Hustle at one point seemed like the Best Picture front-runner but has since faded in a huge way. Still, with all those nominations it seems crazy that it will leave empty-handed. But is screenplay really the place to honor it? Most of the complaints about the movie (including mine) are that it seemed like a bunch of great performances in search of a story. Seriously, I doubt even David O. Russell himself could neatly and accurately summarize the plot of the movie. He’s even basically admitted that he really only cared about character, not story, which can be fine, but in this case it let to a movie that felt like an unorganized mess. It was series of engaging scenes and then it was over, having said nothing and making no emotional impact. 

Her on the other hand, was bursting with thoughts and ideas and feelings. It spoke to who we are, how we live, and where we might be headed. It was universal and deeply personal. It was one of the best films of the past 10 years largely because it was so masterfully constructed. And it felt thrilling original. Which is after all one of the key words in the title of this category. So while it seems improbable that the out-of-touch old men who make up the bulk of the Academy membership and probably don't even own cell phones would give an award to Her, I really think Spike Jonze takes this one. A boy can hope anyway.

Will Win: Her

Should Win: Her

Supporting Actress

This is clearly a two woman race and if Jennifer Lawrence hadn’t just won last year she would take it easily. But she DID just win last year. And since this award could easily, most years, be re-titled “Hottest Newcomer” instead of “Best Supporting Actress” a previous win would seem to disqualify her. But she’s so good in American Hustle and she’s America’s reigning sweetheart (and our future supreme ruler) that you can’t count her out. Lupita Nyong’o though seems to have all the momentum now. She’s the hip choice, has run a great campaign, given great speeches, won most of the precursor awards, and oh yeah, gave the better performance. Oscars have been won for far less than her soap scene alone in 12 Years a Slave, and she had many more scenes of equal difficulty and power. So while the margin is going to be razor thin, Lupita is going to take this round. But don’t cry for Jennifer Lawrence; all she has left is everything else in the world.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Supporting Actor

If you want to see how far we haven’t come in this country in our attitudes towards the gay community look no further than the response to Jared Leto’s performance in Dallas Buyers Club. The word thrown around most often about it is “brave”? But why is it “brave”? Because he’s playing a transgender person? Explain to me what’s “brave” about that. Because I didn’t realize that portraying someone different than yourself was considered “brave”; I thought it was just called doing your job as an actor. I mean isn’t that literally the dictionary definition of acting? Now this is certainly a very reductive way to view these roles, but if we’re going to base our awards voting on which performance is the most “brave” isn’t taking pleasure out of whipping black women while yelling the N-word at them much more emotionally difficult and uncomfortable in 2013 than putting on a dress and pretending to be attracted to men? Based on the overwhelming support for Jared Leto it would appear not. His performance is humane and touching, but it’s nowhere near the level of Michael Fassbender’s work. It seems for most voters though, that it’s not about the work itself. It’s about rewarding Jared Leto for his “courage” in taking on the part. As a voter told Entertainment Weekly about why he was voting for Jared Leto, “it’s a very risky performance that you could easily be ostracized for.” So you could be ostracized for playing a transgender person but not for playing a sociopathic racist? That says so much about Hollywood and America and the Academy. And it makes me sad that we’re not further along as a culture, and that Michael Fassbender is going to get reverse-Brokebacked, but mostly that “Academy Award Winner Jared Leto” is now a thing that is going to be true.

Will Win: Jared Leto

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

Actress

Cate Blanchett is winning this more than anyone has ever won anything. Which is really saying something since this is a very good group of nominees. When Meryl Streep is the weakest of the bunch you know you’ve got a solid category. But Cate Blanchett is blowing them all off the map so it hardly seems worth discussing. So instead let’s talk about Amy Adams.

Were you aware that Amy Adams is slowly becoming one of the most critically acclaimed actresses of all time? It’s true. Here’s the compete list of actresses with more Oscar nominations than Amy Adams by the time they turned 40: Kate Winslet, Deborah Kerr, Norma Shearer, Bette Davis, and Meryl Streep. That’s it. Maybe not strictly a murderers row, but still, surprised Amy Adams is in such elite company aren’t you? But you shouldn’t be because Amy Adams has become a shockingly reliable signifier of quality. She’s quietly become the queen of the indie prestige project. Need proof? Leaving out Man of Steel here are the directors of her last four films: David O. Russell, Spike Jonze, Clint Eastwood, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Now that IS a murderers row. Is Amy Adams, the princess from Enchanted (a role for which I still maintain she should have been Oscar nominated), really the new Kate Winslet? Or even the new Meryl Streep? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. And American Hustle is her finest work yet. She’s an absolute revelation in it. And in any other year she takes home the statue. No one is beating Cate Blanchett this year, but don’t worry, if we’ve learned anything about Amy Adams, it’s that she’ll be back.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Actor

Matthew McConaughey is this year’s Ben Affleck. He's going to win for turning his career around as much as for the work itself. And in that sense True Detective is the anti-Norbit. Seeing constant ads for the show are a great reminder of just how complete his career transformation has been. And speaking of transformations, the only thing Oscar voters love more than redemption narratives are physical transformations for roles. So although it seems weird that in one of the best years ever for actors the Oscar is going to go to Matthew McConaughey, that’s almost certainly what’s about to happen. And that’s a shame. Because while it’s a great performance and a worthy winner, there are two performances I like even better.

Chiwetel Ejiofor is the heart and soul of 12 Years a Slave (and has one of the only names harder to spell than McConaughey). Giving a great performance as the lead of the Best Picture frontrunner is usually enough to win an Oscar. But despite all his suffering and gnashing of teeth, the bulk of his performance is actually, due to the nature of the part, very internal. For me the nuance and subtext of the performance are what make so great, but that non-bombastic nature in addition to Chiwetel being a virtual unknown prior to this year is probably going to keep him from winning a brutally tough category.

On the opposite end of the bombastic spectrum is my pick, if I had one, Leonardo DiCaprio. For years I’ve found Leo to be somewhat stiff and unbelievable, so it makes sense that his two best performances would be Django Unchained and The Wolf of Wall Street, two movies where he didn’t concern himself with naturalism or seriousness. By embracing his inner comedic character actor he paradoxically finally comes off as comfortable in his own skin. It’s like he finally realized that he’s always been miscast as himself. He works much better when he’s someone else. And there was no more extreme someone else to be in film last year than Jordan Belfort. And Leo wrings every bit out of the part that he can. The speeches, the boat confrontation with Kyle Chandler, the final fight with Margot Robbie – it’s just three straight hours of Oscar-worthy scenes. The Quaaludes scene alone should have won him an Oscar and was the best ten minutes of any movie released in 2013. It should be shown to aspiring physical comedians everywhere. Leonardo DiCaprio is the new Jim Carrey; who knew? Ultimately though Leo is getting shafted here because the character was so unlikable and because large numbers of voters had issues with the film. But Leo will never be better, Jordan Belfort is going to go down as his most iconic non-Titanic role, and 10 years from now it’s going to look criminal and inexplicable that he didn’t win the Oscar for it. There continues to be no justice with regards to Jordan Belfort, only this time in an entirely different way.

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Director

I think 12 Years a Slave is by far the best picture. And Steve McQueen is huge reason why. I don’t think another person alive could have taken the same material as made it as powerful and memorable. But considering Ang Lee won this award last year for Life of Pi it’s clear that this award often means MOST direction. And I’m fine with that. If you spend years of your life trying to realize a singular and seemingly impossible vision and finally pull it off brilliantly while pushing the entire art form forward in the process you deserve an Oscar for your efforts. So this is a really close call for me. But I thought James Cameron should have won for Avatar, and for the same reasons I think Alfonso Cuaron should take it this year. Which is what he’s going to do whether I want him to or not.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Picture

This is at this point a two picture race. So let's just focus on those two:

Gravity is a thoroughly original and entertaining movie. It’s a technical marvel and visually unlike anything that has come before.

12 Years a Slave is the new Schindlers List. It’s going to be taught in schools. Seeing it changed how I view the world.

As I’ve said countless times over the years, The Oscars matter because they are a historical document. A record of what mattered. An imperfect, flawed, often egregiously wrong record, but the one record that we know will still be around and still be referenced in 100 years. In 200 years. In 1,000 years. And what do we want on that record as the best film of 2013? Something that will soon look like a primitively shot space epic with a rail thin plot, or the most well-crafted and accurate look yet at one of humanity’s most important and painful chapters?

In Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar preview they stated “In short, 12 Years is heartbreaking; Gravity is groundbreaking”. I agree. And only one of those qualities is one that lasts.

Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

Should Win: 12 Years A Slave

What to Expect from The Bizarro Grammys: A 2011 Oscar Preview

For years The Grammys and The Oscars were friends. They hung out together, had a lot in common and were viewed the same way: as prestigious and significant yet slightly corny, political, and behind-the-times crap shoots. But in recent years a funny thing happened. As The Oscars became more predictable, The Grammys became absurdly random and unpredictable. As The Oscars (with some notable exceptions) started to make more progressive, hipper, and culturally relevant choices, the Grammys slid even further and further into old fogey-dom. As The Oscars became less about who ran the best campaign and who spent the most money wooing voters, The Grammys seemed to do the exact opposite. And as the coverage of and seeming weight given to The Oscars has increased, people stopped caring about or even acknowledging the existence of The Grammys all together. Now instead of being Xerox copies of each other, The Grammys and The Oscars are mirror images. And that’s what makes the most results of the most recent Grammy Awards so interesting.

America is still buzzing about the Esperanza Spalding and Arcade Fire Grammy wins. They made The Grammys front page news. Just yesterday in fact, I found myself engaged in two separate conversations about The Grammys. And The Grammys were two weeks ago at this point. That’s an eternity in pop culture time. Especially for an event that in years prior no one paid even the slightest attention to. But this year The Grammys zigged where they were expected to zag and in doing so they captured the national conversation. Which raises the interesting question - how will the Granddaddy of Them All respond? Likely, not well. They’ve already announced that they’re doing away with the "five past winners/colleagues pay tribute to the five current nominees" gimmick they did the past two years which I was a very vocal fan of. And it’s hard to see James Franco and Anne Hathaway even at their very best transcending the level of "tolerably pleasant". Most interestingly though, after years of making forward thinking choices, The Academy looks like it might be falling back into old habits. Just as The Grammys threw us for a loop by making a good choice, The Oscars look set to do the same by making a bad one. Just when we thought we had figured out who they are they both go and change on us. And so the Grammy/Oscar dance begins anew. How are they alike? How are they different? And what would it be like if one was run by the other? To explore that I’ve chosen what the winner in every category should be. And then who the Grammys would likely choose if they were in charge. And then who the Oscars likely will choose themselves come Sunday night. Compare, contrast, and discuss the choices. Or likely do none of the above. Because ultimately there’s probably only one thing that matters to you. Only one reason why you’re here. And that’s to win your Oscar pool.

Good luck.

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The Shorts:
Yes, this is the place that competitive Oscar pools are won or lost. It’s also the most random and unpredictable. And not just because no one has seen any of the nominees. In fact whenever I have seen the nominees I’ve found I’ve usually been more off in my predictions than when I just read the names off a sheet of paper. Trying to guess these things will drive you mad. It’s like the Best Pop Performance By a Duo or Group With Vocals Grammy category - so wide ranging and eclectic that's it’s like trying to choose between apples and oranges in a situation where the jury only eats meat. So while I can make my picks, who the hell knows who will or should win. It’s a nonsensical crapshoot, which I believe also describes the Grammys to a T.

*Animated Short
My Pick: The Gruffalo
I don’t have a whole lot to say about this one other than get your Mark Ruffalo/The Gruffalo jokes ready now. Also, yes kids, it IS possible to beat Pixar.

The Grammys Pick: The Gruffalo is filled with voice performances from well-known actors. And there’s no surer way to The Grammys' heart than as many big names as possible all collaborating on something. That’s why you can pencil in "All Of The Lights" for at least one Grammy next year. Pen it in actually.

The Oscars Pick: The Gruffalo

*Documentary Short:
My Pick: Strangers No More, you had me at "Israeli children".

"Learning about cultural diversity" "overcoming ethnic tensions" "Middle East" and "heartwarming" were just the icing on the Oscar-bait cake.

The Grammys Pick: Killing in the Name shares a title with a Rage Against the Machine song that topped the charts in the UK last Christmas. Seems like as arbitrary a reason as any to give something an award.

The Oscars Pick: Either Strangers No More or Killing in the Name
 
*Live Action Short
My Pick: Provided that Na Wewe is pronounced like it looks, it’s my pick. And if it is pronounced how I hope it is, then when it wins, the announcement of "and the Oscar goes to...Na Wewe" will be one of the greatest moments in Live Action Short Oscar history, just behind when the Music By Prudence woman pulled a Kanye on her co-director last year.

The Grammys Pick: The Crush
I’m guessing The Grammys would pick this category the way they pick most of their winners - by throwing darts at a dartboard. And in this scenario I’m saying that their hypothetical dart landed on the name The Crush. Simple as that.

The Oscars Pick: The Confession
It seems to be what people in the know are predicting will win. Which means it probably won’t. Or maybe it will. Whatever.

Visual Effects
My Pick: Inception
It may not win Screenplay or even be nominated for Director or Editing, but at least as consolation Inception has this esteemed category that has been won by the likes of Spider Man 2 and Death Becomes Her in the bag.

The Grammys Pick: Inception
Even the Grammys couldn’t screw this one up.

The Oscars Pick: Inception

Sound Mixing
My Pick: Inception
While watching Inception I often found myself thinking "Holy shit that sound was well mixed!" Or maybe I just dreamed that I did.

The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Inception is too confusing and highbrow for the Grammys. And people who listen to adult contemporary radio like Harry Potter right? And it’s been around forever so it feels safe and familiar. And it made a lot of money. And no one knows what Sound Mixing is anyway. Least of all The Grammys. I mean what do they know about judging the quality of sound? (Zing!)

The Oscars Pick: Inception

Sound Editing
My Pick: The only thing better than the way the sounds were mixed in Inception was the way that they were edited together. I mean, oh my god! Am I right?
(No really, am I?)

The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Don’t believe me that this would be their pick? Well, this Harry Potter book has actually already won a Grammy! So there.

The Oscars Pick: Inception
Giving it three Oscars on the night.
(Not for nothing, but these are three of the four Oscars that The Matrix won in 1999. The other being Editing which Inception would have won had it been nominated.)

Makeup
My Pick: Ah, Best Makeup. The category which allows Quest for Fire and Harry and the Hendersons to call themselves Academy Award winning movies. Which is my way of saying that this category sucks. I haven’t seen any of these nominees, but The Wolfman seems like it required the most work. So, um, I'll go with that.

The Grammys Pick: The Way Back
Because why not. ("Because why not" is a phrase that The Grammys say often)

The Oscars Pick: The Wolfman
It's makeup icon (there’s a phrase you don’t hear too much) Rick Baker. And he made a man turn into a wolf. (Although that man was Benicio del Toro so it’s debatable how much work that actually required...)

Art Direction
My Pick: If by “Art Direction” you mean “the sensation that my eyes are on fire” then I’ve gotta go with Alice and Wonderland. If “Art Direction” means something else then I have no idea.

The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
The hypothetical Grammy juggernaut rolls on. (If Harry Potter could somehow be turned into music you just know that it would cleanup at The Grammys.)

The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
This is a category that could easily get caught up as part of a Kings Speech sweep and I don’t feel good about this pick at all. But the look of Kings Speech was just so drab and dreary, and in this category, as with Costume Design, the flashiest nominee almost always wins. Speaking of which…

Costume Design
My Pick: The Tempest
Since Spiderman: Turn Off The Dark is probably the end of Julie Taymor’s theater career for awhile, her film career could use a little encouragement. And The Tempest did genuinely have great costumes. So she’s got that going for her. Which is nice.

The Grammys Pick: Black Swan
Black Swan’s costumes are like an album of similar sounding songs elevated greatly by one monster single. So I’m sure The Grammys love it. And so will half the girls you know next year for Halloween.

The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
Yes a Best Picture front-runner about the British monarchy would seem to be the obvious choice. But the British monarchy in question happens to be the dowdy 1930s version. And Best Costume Design is all about flash. And Alice in Wonderland has that in spades over The Kings Speech. Plus, as I always say, when in doubt go with either Colleen Atwood or Sandy Powell. So Colleen it is, to tie Sandy with three wins apiece.
(Note: I’m a huge nerd)

Editing
My Pick: Inception
Oh wait…

The Grammys Pick: 127 Hours
Just because it would thoroughly infuriate me. If there’s an option that would make me apoplectic if it won, then that’s the nominee The Grammys like to choose. Yes, it’s that personal.

The Oscars Pick: Inception’s loss is The Social Network’s gain. The Academy would definitely love to give this to The Kings Speech, but it all unfolds in a linear fashion in only a small handful of locations. That’s not the stuff Best Editing Oscars are made of.

Animated Feature

My Pick: I’m about to say something heretical: if I had a vote for Best Animated Feature I would vote for How to Train Your Dragon. 

Please don’t shoot me.

Look, I love Pixar. Let me rephrase that. I LOOOOOOOOVE Pixar. Andy and Pixar sittin in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G. If Pixar was a religion I would enter the seminary tomorrow. But. I didn’t love Toy Story 3. I thought it was good, certainly. I very much enjoyed it. But I also thought it was a bit safe and predicable. After pushing the envelope with each of their past few releases Toy Story 3 felt like a bit of a retreat for Pixar into the easy and comfortable and familiar. And I don’t go to my 3D animated kids movies for comfort. I go to them to see robots in a dystopian trash-scape teach children about the dangers of unregulated capitalism. And so while Pixar was off talking about the sadness of death and the ennui of aging, I turned to the dreaded Dreamworks, of all people, for my moving and challenging exploration of cultural misunderstanding, racism, prejudice, and why war is wrong. Kids are innately gonna figure out the Toy Story 3 shit eventually. How to Drain Your Dragon though is truly important stuff, well told. It’s the perfect movie for the Age of Obama. So while I feel a bit like Fredo going against the family here, I gotta say that How to Train Your Dragon is more deserving of this award.

I hope that we can still be friends.

The Grammys Pick: Toy Story 3

“Safe Unthreatening And Familiar” is The Grammys’ middle name

The Oscars Pick: Toy Story 3

There’s no way it loses. But just to let you know that I’m not completely out of my mind for somewhat hoping that it does, I’ll let the great Raphael Bob-Waksberg have the last word here:

“What I have come to love most about Pixar is how fully they create brand new worlds with each movie, so revisiting these characters again felt like a wasted opportunity— especially with the knowledge that the next Pixar release will be Cars 2. We’re not getting another new Pixar world to explore until 2012’s Brave, the first Pixar movie with a female protagonist, which will be immediately followed by a Monster’s Inc. sequel.

Toy Story 3 covers a lot of ground already covered in the Toy Story series and I felt like I could see the strings more than I wanted to. But that’s nitpicking. I have no real complaints about Toy Story 3. It was great and hilarious and moving and terrifying and bold.

But when you’re talking about Pixar, just ‘great and hilarious and moving and terrifying and bold’ is kind of a disappointment.”

Score
My Pick: The Social Network
Why? Let Me Count the Ways:
1.) Not nearly enough people named Atticus have won Oscars.
2.) "Academy Award Winner Trent Reznor" is just too awesome of a phrase not to be true.
3.) Did I mention that his co-writer is named Atticus Ross?
4.) This is groundbreaking, cutting-edge, game changing work. It’s almost TOO good to be nominated. It’s the only nominee here that in 20 years will still matter.
5.) If The Social Network takes this category then that means that the best The Kings Speech can likely do is tie them for total number of Oscars. And hey, it may not be Best Picture, but it’s something.

The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
It's stately, old school, boring, and by an established name. Tailor made-for The Grammys.

The Oscars Pick: The Social Network
Here's the real test right here. The Oscars of 20 years ago would give this thing to The Kings Speech in a heartbeat. It's the Best Picture front-runner and this is exactly the type of category that gets thrown in as part of the Best Picture Sweep. And Alexandre Desplat is overdue. And his score sounds exactly what you'd expect an Academy Award winning score to sound like.

But.

In recent years A.R. Rahman has won this. Gustavo Santaolalla has won it twice. Eminem and Three 6 Mafia have won recent awards from the music branch. So the times they are (maybe) a-changin. Especially when a score this “important” is one of the nominees. And when Hans Zimmer’s Inception score will likely siphon some of the classical score vote away from The Kings Speech.

And so it seems that a somewhat minor category will somewhat fittingly speak volumes about not just how broad and enthusiastic support for The Kings Speech is but also the state of The Academy as a whole.

Here’s one for hope.

Song
My Pick: Randy Newman is, of course, the man. And while I may have been underwhelmed by the movie itself, I thought "We Belong Together" was real Pixar/Randy Newman delight. Also, the .0001% chance that Kanye might appear out of nowhere to interrupt Randy Newman's speech to say "Imma let you finish, but Taylor Swift had the best song called ‘We Belong Together’ of ALL TIME" makes want to root like hell for it to win.

The Grammys Pick: I've seen absolutely no one anywhere pick “Country Strong” or even mention it in passing. It's an afterthought with no actual prayer of winning. Which means of course that The Grammys are taking it all the way.

The Oscars Pick: No category on the ballot is tougher to predict this year than this one. On the one hand the Randy Newman song is, well, a Randy Newman song. On the other hand, those have a surprisingly poor track record at the Oscars. It’s from a great movie and is featured prominently in it, but you could say the same thing about "If I Rise". It’s from a Disney movie, which is often a good sign, except for the fact that in recent years that has been more of a hindrance than a help. Also it's probably going to suffer a good deal of vote splitting with the song from Tangled. Which means that the pick here would seem to be the perfectly fine "If I Rise" from past winner and music legend in his own right A.R. Rahman. Except for the fact that my gut still says "We Belong Together". And sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.

Documentary Feature
My Pick: This is also tough one. All good nominees, but with all due respect to Restrepo it comes down to a battle between Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job. Exit Through the Gift Shop is probably the better film, but Inside Job is probably the better documentary, if that makes any sense. It's the movie Michael Moore wishes he made if he made better movies (and I generally like Michael Moore). I think about Exit Through the Gift Shop all the time, especially now that I live in LA, but I think people will still be thinking about Inside Job 30 years from now, probably even more than they do today. It’s the story of our times. And it’s probably our Hearts and Minds. So while I wish in an ideal world for a tie, Inside Job is getting my (hypothetical) vote.

The Grammys Pick: Inside Job is too good and too culturally vital, Restrepo is too critically acclaimed, and Waste Land is too indie which leaves Gasland and Exit Through the Gift Shop. Exit Through The Gift Shop sold the most tickets and is the most mainstream, two things the Grammys love, but Gasland would be a clear WTF choice here. Hard to say what’s more "Grammy". But since the mainstream no-nothing crowd is all picking Exit Through the Gift Shop, I'm giving Gasland the slight edge

The Oscars Pick: Inside Job
For the reasons I outlined above.

Foreign Language Film

My Pick: I hate to admit it but the only one of these nominees I’ve seen is Biutiful and suffice it to say I was not a fan. I’ve heard good things about Dogtooth, and it would be fun to root for a Greek movie, but that’s too uneducated of a reason to pick something in a major category like this. So honestly, I have to say I really have no opinion.

The Grammys Pick: Biutiful got terrible reviews, is in this category just based on the reputation and name-recognition of the people involved, and is the only nominee middle-America might have remotely heard of. A perfect recipe for Grammy success.

The Oscars Pick: This category is notoriously unpredictable as only a handful of people are actually eligible to vote on it. And the people that do vote have an average age of about 102. Which means if I had to guess I would probably go with In a Better World as it seems like the nominee most likely to appeal to the old-fogey set. But really anything could happen. Including the award not being given out at all on account of all the eligible voters killing themselves after sitting through Biutiful.


Original Screenplay
My Pick: Christopher Nolan - Inception
Film-related things people talked about this year: The greatness of The Social Network, the brilliance of Christian Bale, the beauty of True Grit, the lesbian-ness of Black Swan, and, most of all, the screenplay of Inception. People spoofed it, quoted its dialogue, discussed its meanings, and debated its ending. How confusing/challenging/interesting/original it was or wasn't was the pop culture conversation topic du jour of 2010. And I don’t want to live in a dream level where it doesn’t win Best Original Screenplay.

The Grammys Pick: Scott Sliver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington - The Fighter
If there’s anything the Grammys love it’s as many people as possible collaborating on something. And since it’s taken four people to write each of the past two Songs of the Year, it seems like four might be an especially magic number.

(Semi-interesting Oscar fact: Although it used to be relatively common, The Fighter is only the 4th time in the past 40 years that four or more people have shared an Original Screenplay nomination. The three others? The Deer Hunter, Splash, and the original Toy Story which was written by seven people including Andrew Stanton, Pete Doctor, John Lasseter and Joss Whedon. Yes, that Joss Whedon. That’s like film equivalent of The Dana Carvey Show writing staff. Incredible.)

The Oscars Pick: David Seidler - The Kings Speech
Ah David Seidler, that great bastion of modern screenwriting. As future scholars write their dissertations on the deeper meanings of your legendary tomes they will look back on this Oscar win as the beginning of an artistic cannon the likes of which has never been equaled in the history of man. Or, more likely, your by-the-numbers screenplay will be a blip on the march to obscurity. But hey, a screenplay straight out of “How to Write a Populist Prestige Movie for Dummies” written by some nobody is certainly a good reason to pass up perhaps the crowning achievement and life’s work of one of our era’s great Oscar-less screenwriters. So good on you Academy. Good on you.

Adapted Screenplay
My Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
As president of the Aaron Sorkin Fan Club this award will be the highlight of the night for me. And is also the lock to end all locks. Sorkin could have stopped writing this screenplay after the first ten pages, literally just stopped Sopranos-finale style, and he still would have won this thing in a walk. I only wish that they published the vote totals so I could know if this was the biggest margin of victory in Oscar history or not. But whatever. Cameron Crowe, Charlie Kaufman and now Aaron Sorkin. All my favorite writers will finally be able to polish their Oscars together in the circle jerk of my dreams. And in the end that’s all that matters.

The Grammys Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
This is like when Sgt. Pepper won Album of the Year. Sometimes even The Grammys gotta reco'nize.

The Oscars Pick: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network

Cinematography
My Pick: True Grit
Did you know that Roger Deakins has never won an Academy Award? How is that possible? That’s as big an outrage as Gordon Willis not having an Oscar.

Well fortunately that will be remedied this year. (The Roger Deakins thing that is. Willis is still shit out of luck.) And best of all it won’t even be a makeup Oscar. It’s one that will be earned entirely on its own merits. Because True Grit was fucking gorgeous.

The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
I’m pretty sure the concept of cinematography would be too complicated for Grammy voters. They would just go with the movie they liked the best.

The Oscars Pick: Although I found True Grit to be a bit slight, “slight” shouldn’t confused with “not good”. But even the movie’s most vocal detractors would admit that’s it’s a visual stunner. This fact cannot and has not ever been questioned. So while Danny Cohen’s work in The Kings Speech is fine, True Grit is just too good to deny. The Roger Deakins element may push it over the top, but the cinematography of True Grit would be honored even if Victor Hammer was the man behind it.
(And yes, I did just look up the name of the cinematographer of Billy Madison.)

Best Supporting Actor
My Pick: Christian Bale
Continuing with our theme of shocking Oscar facts, did you know that Sam Rockwell has never even been nominated for an Oscar? How is that possible? I know no one saw Conviction, but in most years his work in it would have been good enough to win this category. And yet he’s not even nominated. And while that’s a mild outrage I honestly don’t know who here I would bump for him. And that in a nutshell is why this is one of the strongest categories/group of nominees in Academy Awards history. Sound like a crazy statement? Then consider the fact that you could make a pretty strong a category just from the performances omitted - Sam Rockwell, Andrew Garfield, Armie Hammer, Matt Damon, Bill Murray. Other than maybe Bill Murray aren’t all of those performances better than any of the nominees from 2006? No one seems to be talking about this category much, but it can easily stand with 1992, 1994, and 2007 as one of the great Best Supporting Actor classes of all time. Any of these nominees would be a worthy winner in almost any other year. This year though it’s all about Christian Bale. And how far ahead he is of the rest of the pack, considering the strength of the competition, says all you need to know about the brilliance of his work.

The Grammys Pick: Geoffrey Rush
It’s the old fogey choice. Christian Bale is too out there and in-your-face and daring. Geoffrey Rush is like a nice warm sweater. His is a Supporting Actor performance just like they used to make ‘em in the good old days. I don’t mean that to be a criticism of his work per se, I just mean it to be a reason the Grammys would respond to it so well.

The Oscars Pick: Christian Bale
There is an outside shot, no matter how remote, that Geoffrey Rush could win. And in pretty much every other year he would be the runaway favorite. Because he’s fantastic. But this year, if he wins it would be an outrage of the highest order. And that’s a testament to the greatness of Christian Bale. And provided that he does indeed win, it should just be noted what an epic Best Supporting Actor run we’re on here. Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men, Heath Ledger as The Joker, Christoph Waltz last year, and now Christian Bale. All iconic, legendary, all-time great performances. This just might be the golden age of male supporting acting. Or it might be some strange fluke. Regardless though, it’s awesome and should be talked about more. Keep it going next year fellas.

Best Supporting Actress
My Pick: Amy Adams would seem to be just what Oscar wants - a hot, youngish leading lady uglying herself up and displaying a heretofore unknown range. That’s the recipe for like 20% of all Oscar wins. And yet for reasons unknown, Amy Adams is an afterthought this year. She’s not even the one who should be most upset though. This category was Julianne Moore’s for the taking, only she stupidly decided to campaign for Lead Actress rather than Supporting. Sure maybe voters would have thought her part was too big to be supporting, but maybe they wouldn’t have, and if she had been nominated she would have won easily. But instead her hubris, or her representatives’ hubris, likely cost her an Oscar.

Without Julianne Moore in the race in the race it allows to focus on the fact that Amy Adams, who pulled off a performance that even a huge fan like myself though there was no way she could do, will for the third time unjustly go down in defeat. Are people just taking her for granted at this point or something? You realize that the lead of the Disney movie Enchanted just played a poor, trashy, Masshole bartender and played her completely believably right? Just checking.

The Grammys Pick: Melissa Leo is old, an industry veteran, yet no one really knows or cares who she is, and her work in The Fighter is just a semi-repeat of work she's done better previously - sounds like a Grammy winner to me!

The Oscars Pick: Okay, here’s this year’s potential buzz and excitement. Melissa Leo has won all the precursor awards and is still the definite frontrunner according to most prognosticators. But coming from someone who has been studying these things a long time I just don’t see her winning and I never have. This category notoriously almost never goes to women over 40. And whenever two actresses from the same movie are nominated they almost always split the vote. And there’s another nominee in the same category who plays a variation on the exact same character thereby siphoning off even more of Melissa Leo’s potential votes. And I have yet to meet anyone who was passionate about her performance. She seems like the most buzz-free frontrunner ever. I just don’t feel any passionate support for her at all.

Hailee Steinfeld on the other hand, has a slew of very vocal supporters. The most common comment about True Grit, other than how beautiful the movie is, is how good the girl is in it. That’s a conversation I myself have had with friends, and that I have overheard many other people having with their friends. And there’s plenty of precedent for a young precocious girl winning this award. Much more than for an older character actress winning. Just ask Lauren Bacall, Gloria Stuart, Frances McDormand, or Ruby Dee how their Oscar nights turned out. So I’m predicting that it’s young Hailee Steinfeld here and keeping my fingers crossed that she doesn’t grow up and go all Paquin on us.

Best Actress
My Pick: Does Annette Benning deserve an Oscar? Yes. Of course. For this role, and for her body of work as a whole. She should have multiple Oscars already in fact. She is one of the great actresses of her generation and yet never seems to get the level of respect she dearly deserves. And am I generally a big Natalie Portman fan? No I am not. I think she’s way overrated as an actress and as a geek-boy dream girl. But when given the right project where she has to cry a lot and act frightened, she can knock it out of the park. (Thats a big part of the reason for her geek-boy appeal, but that’s a topic for another time...) And Black Swan is the definition of that project. As an actor myself I know I’m supposed to respect the subtle humanity of Benning's work over the flashy grandstanding of Portman's, but honestly I still found myself thinking about Natalie Portman’s work in Black Swan days afterwards. It resonated deeper with me than Annette Benning's work. Maybe that’s not fair or right, but it’s true. And while Christian Bale gave the best performance of the year, Natalie Portman gave what is likely to go down as the most iconic. So move over Hilary Swank, there’s a new Hilary Swank in town and her name is Natalie Portman.

The Grammys Pick: Annette Benning
Because she's the old, established, unhip choice who should have already won for better work years ago.

The Oscars Pick: Natalie Portman
When in doubt always go with most young, attractive, hot name. The dirty little secret of The Oscars is that the Academy membership is largely male. And the dirty little not-at-all-secret is that men generally like attractive young women. There’s a reason that only three actresses over the age of 40 have won Best Actress in the past 20 years (Sandra Bullock doesn’t count). And no, that reason is not "sheer coincidence". This "race" was over way before it even began.

Best Actor
My Pick: Colin Firth
We don’t actually need to spend time discussing this one do we?

The Grammys Pick: Everyone thinks it will be Colin Firth. He’s the only logical choice. He seems like a pretty mortal lock. You would probably bet your life on it if you could. That’s why The Grammys are gonna go with Jeff Bridges.

The Oscars Pick: Colin Firth

Best Director
My Pick: David Fincher
When I heard David Fincher was set to direct the Aaron Sorkin facebook movie I was confused. It made no sense. That didn’t sound like a David Fincher movie at all. And it wasn’t. But, then, ultimately, it was. Because he made it into one. He took a Sorkin script and turned it into a movie that had viewers on the edge of their seats in anticipation of a Winklevi finding a box with his brother’s head in it. For that he deserves the Oscar hands down. Plus he’s way overdue. So give him his Oscar already so he can stop making Benjamin Button (a movie I liked BTW) and go back to making straight-up David Fincher movies. Thanks.

The Grammys Pick: The question you always need to ask yourself with The Grammys is – who would a middle-aged housewife vote for? And I feel extremely confident that a middle aged housewife would vote for Tom Hooper.

The Oscars Pick: David Fincher
In pretty much every other category the Academy is willing to honor any fly-by-night American Idol reject who did good work; but when it comes to Best Director they are very protective of the category’s integrity. You almost always gotta have a proven track record to win this one. There’s a reason John Madden, Rob Marshall and Paul Haggis all lost Best Director the year their movies won Best Picture. And it’s the same reason Tom Hooper’s pleasant but undistinguished work is going to lose here this year. It’s because he’s a no name at this point who seems likely to never make another truly great film. Maybe he will, but maybe he won’t, and that possibility means that this is going instead to the big name who has never won. Maybe next time Mr. Hooper. If there is a next time.

Best Picture
My Pick: Here are some of the things critics said about The Social Network - "An American Landmark", "A Once-In-A-Generation Movie", and "Revolutionary. Absolutely emblematic of its time and place".

And here are some things that I just made up just now that critics said about The Kings Speech - "Very Enjoyable and Well Made", "A Quality Film", and "Thoroughly Competent".

And that, my friends, is the decision that Oscar voters are faced with. Do they make the fresh, forward-thinking, culturally relevant choice, or do they make the safe, predictable, out of touch choice. Sure it’s not like last year where the future of the independent studio system was at stake. And The Kings Speech is a perfectly fine movie and all. But still. What do we value? Pleasant entertainments, or culturally vital art? What kind of movies do we want there to be more of? Because if we go back to rewarding formulaic prestige pictures like The Kings Speech, then we run the risk of the indie studios producing nothing but a slate of movies where Meryl Streep has AIDS in the Holocaust. And sure some of those would likely be decent enough, but I thought we were past that. No Country for Old Men, The Departed, The Hurt Locker - these are all different types of movies than the Academy of old used to honor. Do they want to take a step backwards? What do they want to say about this year in film? What do they want to say about our cultural and artistic values and ideals? What is the statement they want to make for posterity? Who are they as an organization?

They are an organization that I hope will do the right thing. And I genuinely think that there’s a legitimate chance that they will. But if not, well, it’s exactly the kind of thing that…

The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
...the Grammys would do

The Oscars Pick: The Kings Speech

Pseudo Live-Blogging The Golden Globes 2010

8:06 - Pretty solid job, Mr. Gervais, but not outstanding. Still, always nice to have you around.

8:20 - So Mo'Nique gets an hour to speak, but Pete Doctor gets about five seconds tops? Maybe if he had taken 20 minutes to get to the stage...

8:28 - They're trying to break the world record for most shots of Penelope Cruz during a three hour telecast. They're going to obliterate it at this rate. I've counted 58 so far.

8:31 - MASSIVE UPSET ALERT! If you had Felicity Huffman in your "Most Embarrassingly Drunk" office pool, congrats! None of the rest of us saw that coming at all.

8:40 - I'm convinced that Al Pacino was so tired of being the obvious answer to the question "which formerly great actor has most lost his mind in old age?" that he decided to pay for Harrison Ford's lobotomy.

8:45 - After seeing Crazy Heart, I think T. Bone Burnett is an even bigger Oscar lock than Christoph Waltz. With that in mind, he really needs to work on his speech giving ability.

8:50 - Okay this night has officially turned into a Thank-Your-Spouse-Off. Thanks a lot, Mo'Nique...

8:52 - We can all agree on Amy Adams can't we?

8:56 - In terms of totally and completely changing your image from drug addled mess to family-friendly mainstream film star, Drew Barrymore is the female equivalent of Robert Downey Jr. isn't she? I mean does anyone even remember when she flashed David Letterman? That's all been swept under the rug at this point.

9:01 - Highlight of the year coming in 3...2...1...
"I wish my name was T-Bone"
JACKPOT!
Oh Meryl, I don't know how you do it (actually I do) but you never disappoint. All is right with the world for a whole nother year.

9:16 - Okay scratch that Drew Barrymore comment....

9:27 - So lemme get this straight Golden Globes: you knew Alec Baldwin wouldn't be there to accept if he won, and yet you still didn't give Best Comedy Actor to Steve Carell?
You knew Ricky Gervais was going to be hosting right?

9:34 - We're standing for Sophia Loren? Name a Sophia Loren movie other than Two Women (Nine doesn't count). You couldn't do it could you? So then why are we standing for her? Because she's not dead? I don't understand.

9:39 - If I played fantasy sports my team name would definitely be "Jon Hamm's Beard"

9:46 - Taylor Lautner how can you introduce (500) Days of Summer and not make some joke comparing it to you and Taylor Swift? There were at least three different perfect opportunities to do so. You're dead to me now. (Note: You were never alive to me)

9:47 - Rachel Dratch was in Hung? And she changed her name to Jane Adams?

9:47 - Chloe Sevigny I think that dress might be the most embarrassing and disgusting thing that has ever happened to you, and keep in mind that you once blew Vincent Gallo on film.

10:01 - Holy shit Marty, thats quite the imdb page you've got there

10:05 - I think Martin Scorsese might be the last person left on earth who still refers to movies as "pictures". It's endearing.

10:06 - So are we supposed to be taking Mel Gibson seriously again now? Is that a thing?
(Also, not to ruin Edge of Darkness for you, but it turns out that the Jews did it.)

10:17 - No more quoting from your own movie in your acceptance speeches James Cameron! Have you learned nothing?!?

10:19 - Holy shit. Who the hell is Olivia Wilde and where can I watch her do things?

10:25 - Hey it's Jodie Foster. See Lindsey Lohan, there is a classy way to be a former child star/questionable lesbian.

10:30 - Why is Ed Helms' song from The Hangover not considered a legitimate awards contender? Seriously, name five original songs from this year that are more memorable and important to their respective films than that one. You can't.

10:35 - Oh man, its good to have Mickey Rourke back in our lives again.

10:36 - Do we really live in a world where The Blind Side wins major awards? I don't know if this is a world I care to live in.

10:42 - Most underrated person in the world: Lauren Graham

10:47 - Ladies and gentlemen, your Best Actor Oscar race just got decided. George and Colin, thanks for playing.

10:57 - DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ugh. I'm going to bed.

Oscar Preview '06

With only 24 hours left before the Oscars I guess its about time I gave my own personal Oscar preview/predictions. As always, pretend like you care…

Best Picture:
If I ever get around to typing up my Top 3 & 1/2 of 2005 Awards Entry then you would know that I think Munich was the best movie of 2005. Although if you think Brokeback or Capote or King Kong or Walk the Line or Squid and the Whale or Cinderella Man or Good Night and Good Luck was better then I'd be willing to listen to your argument. (If you thought anything other than those movies was better than Munich though, then you are wrong.) Anyway, what I’m trying to say is, I think Munich should win Best Picture, but if you disagree I can probably see your point. Unfortunately due to the most bungled PR campaign in the history of bungled PR campaigns there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell of Munich actually winning Best Picture. How exactly one is able to take a picture that months before its release was already being basically given the Oscar and somehow turn it into a movie that was lucky to even get four nominations is beyond me. Maybe it was the fact they didn’t send out screeners to Golden Globe voters. Maybe it was the fact Steven Spielberg and the stars did exactly one interview leading up to the film’s release. Perhaps it’s that it came out so late in the game and rolled out so gradually that it got lost in the shuffle. Perhaps it was the fact they showed the trailer and bought TV ads a likely combined total of 12 times. Whatever it was, they completely bungled what should have been a gimme Oscar victory. Where is Harvey Weinstein when you need him? Any man who can get a Best Picture nomination for Chocolat could have gotten Munich 10 Oscar WINS. Instead its PR people went with the Million Dollar Baby approach, forgetting the fact that when you’re the front runner you cant pull the "underdog that comes out of nowhere" approach. Anyway, it’s a real shame because in the so-called Year of the Message Movie, no movie delivered a more important or relevant message in as compelling a way as Munich. Based on real life events and using a thoughtful, brilliant, and stunningly literate screenplay and great acting, set against a tension filled, epic backdrop of international intrigue and personal emotional trauma, Munich preached that violence, even as revenge, only leads to more violence and ultimately solves nothing. Is there anything that could be more Oscar worthy or relevant for our times then that? (Well outside of a movie about shooting an old guy in the face during a hunting trip of course.) And that’s my problem with Brokeback winning. While at the moment Brokeback seems very groundbreaking and controversial, ten years from now it’s going to seem very tame and almost puritanical. Like In the Heat of Night or Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner it may capture the liberal zeitgeist of the times but once that zeitgeist has past and the context of its win has long been forgotten, it's going to age incredibly poorly. Munich on the other hand, is timeless. Because while gay rights is the cause du jour of the moment, the issue of violence as revenge for violence is, and always will be, more relevant to our own individual lives and the life of our nation and our world (especially right now), despite what conservatives may try to have you believe. Plus I doubt Brokeback is going to change anyone’s mind when it comes to their feelings on homosexuality, but Munich will make any viewer think deeper about the implications of revenge and violence, as well as the implications of the existence of the state of Israel, which is ultimately what this whole terrorism thing is all about anyway. Not only is the movie specifically designed to do just that, but I can testify from first hand experience that it succeeds. So to make a long story short - as good as Brokeback may be, Munich trumps it because its subject matter is more “important”. After all, love can only be experienced in an individual personal way, but war and nationalism and the intersection of the two can be experienced in a collective shared way. And isn’t that why we go to the movie theater, cram ourselves in with a bunch of strangers, and stare up at the screen together in the dark in the first place – the hope of a shared communal emotional experience? Isn’t creating that experience the goal of the best art? I would say it is.
But if you disagree…I see your point.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich

(As side note, ultimately I really don’t care what wins as long as it isn’t Crash. If Crash wins I may seriously consider my long threatened boycott of all things Oscar. Crash would easily be the worst Best Picture winner ever. EASILY. Crash is a joke. If Crash wins I will hurl things at the TV. If Crash wins I will definitely contemplate using violence as a means of revenge. If Crash wins I would so completely NOT understand. I would be confused. I would be enraged. It would be just like dealing with someone from a racial group other than my own...)

Best Actor:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman is my favorite actor. He is the best actor alive. You should bow down before him and worship his presence. You are unworthy to share this planet with him and his awesome acting powers. Daniel Day Lewis is good and all, and Dustin Hoffman has had his days, and Russell Crowe deserves his props, but Phillip Seymour Hoffman can take on all challengers and he will destroy them all! What’s that blade through your heart Edward Norton? Is that the Hoff Man’s blade of Three Minute Pause Between Two Lines In 25th Hour? What’s that Robert DeNiro? Is that the sound of your skull being crushed by Phillip’s scene stealing prowess in Flawless? Hey Sean Penn, was that Phil’s ability to completely disappear into a character that just detached your head from your body? What’s that Al Pacino? You’re fucking insane? Yes, as Phillip Seymour Hoffman cruises to his first Oscar victory he leaves a trail of mauled and bloody contenders for the title of Best Actor Alive in his wake. But soon he will be able to claim his throne because at last he will have his Oscar. And when he wins it will bring much joy to my life. And it will bring much joy to the world. Children will sing, puppies will dance, angels will get their wings. The heavens will open, and light will pour down upon the Earth, and God will speak. And he will say:

“Id like to thank...”

And thank he will.

Just you wait.

Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Actress:
There’s a fine line between giving an actress a Julia Roberts Oscar because they’re hot and a big star and they give an immensely likeable performance in a crowd pleasing movie in a year which was somehow arbitrarily declared “their year”, and giving a hot bankable actress an Oscar because their immensely likeable performance in a crowd pleasing movie was actually the best performance of the year. This year Reese Witherspoon walks that line. (Editors note: pun intended) On the one hand Reese doesn’t exactly have any scenes or moments in Walk the Line that cry out “Oscar worthy!” And I wouldn’t know June Carter Cash if I fell on her, so I have no idea how accurate a job Reese does of portraying her. And maybe Felicity Huffman technically does give a better and braver performance than Reese. But on the other hand, Reese gives the most memorable and indelible performance of the year and is the best part of one of the year’s best movies. And her name wouldn’t lookout of place on a list of Oscar winners. And she’s a hot young major star. And it’s her year. And unlike Julia Roberts she’s already won nearly every acting award in sight leading up to the Oscars. And Felicity Huffman’s performance isn’t THAT much better than hers. And absolutely no one has seen TransAmerica. And most of all, Reese deserves SOMETHING for staying married to Ryan Phillippe for so long. So here you go Reese - here’s your Oscar. You’ve earned it.

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Director:
I really don’t care about this category this year. On the one hand, Steven Spielberg’s achievement in Munich is remarkable; especially considering it’s coming from him. In its own way it’s an even more shocking, bleak, and mature departure for him than Schindler’s List was. But on the other hand he already has two Oscars and is already the most respected and popular filmmaker of all time. On the other hand, Ang Lee, might not have made the year’s BEST picture, but how can you not have love for a guy who was raised in Asia and yet somehow was the force behind The Ice Storm, Sense and Sensibility, and now Brokeback Mountain. Throw Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and The Hulk in that mix and has there ever been anyone in the history of film with a more diverse and harder to pin down oeuvre? And yes I really just wanted an excuse to use the word “oeuvre”. I feel like that should be the name of an exotic fruit.

Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Steven Spielberg

Best Supporting Actor:
They should really just cancel this category this year. Looking back over Oscar history I think this might be the weakest group of nominees in this category ever. This year is like the anti-1994. I’ve been over this before but only Paul Giamatti even deserves to be NOMINATED and even his performance doesn’t exactly scream out “Oscar”. So really does anyone deserve to WIN? Matt Dillon cant win because is there anything more laughable sounding than the phrase “Academy Award Winner Matt Dillon”? (Actually, you don’t have to answer that…). Jake Gyllenhaal can’t win because he’s Jake Gyllenhaal, and because he once dated Kristen Dunst, and because, well, have you SEEN him in Proof? Anyone who can be that bad cant win an Oscar the same year. It’s a rule. George Clooney cant win because all he did was gain weight and then get tied to a chair and beaten. I wouldn’t exactly call that an Oscar winning performance as much as I would call it “last Tuesday”. And William Hurt can’t win because he is the worst actor in the history of the world and he was in the worst movie to get an Oscar nomination in my lifetime. So that only leaves Paul Giamatti. I like Paul Giamatti. Paul Giamatti is a great and well-respected actor whose name wouldn’t seem out of place on a list of Academy Award winners. Plus he got totally screwed last year when he hasn’t even nominated for Sideways. And he’s the loan representative of a movie that got totally screwed this year – Cinderella Man. And oh yeah, his performance is actually really good and endearing too. So Paul Giamatti deserves to win. Which is good because he probably will. Although part of me still fears George Clooney might, in which case I will have to go strap him to another chair and apply another beating to him. Or maybe Ill have your mom do it instead. She’s much better at it than I am.

Will Win: Paul Giamatti
Should Win: Paul Giamatti

Best Supporting Actress:
This is just an all around bad year for supporting performances. While this category is slightly better than its male counterpart, it’s still far from stellar. But I guess considering some of the nominees that usually inhabit this category this year’s lot ain’t too bad in the grand scheme of things. But Frances McDormand was clearly just mugging for an Oscar, Catherine Keener was way too subtle to actually win an Oscar (although I personally LOVED her performance), and Michelle Williams was once on Dawson’s Creek. Plus Joshua Jackson was way better than her on that show anyway. Not that I ever watched the first three seasons or anything. Still though, I wouldn’t be shocked to see her win here. Which would be a crime, because we all know who gave the best female performance, lead or supporting, in any movie this year (and by “we all” I mean “the 5 people who actually saw Junebug”). And that person is Amy Adams. She single handedly made her movie great, which is ridiculously hard to do when your movie also stars Benjamin McKenzie. But in the time it took for the movie to play she went from unknown to “Ill go see the next movie she’s in regardless of what is it” status. Alas though, she probably won’t win either. Because Rachel Weisz will win. And while Rachel Weisz was fine and all, she wasn’t really that memorable. When I walked out of Junebug (having heard absolutely nothing about it going into it) my first thought was “call off the Oscars and give Amy Adams her award now”. Whereas when I walked out of The Constant Gardener my first and only thought was “Ralph Fiennes actually only gardened intermittently.”

Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Should Win: Amy Adams

Best Adapted Screenplay:
This is gonna be like the year The Pianist won a screenplay award even though there was like less than 30 minutes of dialogue in the whole movie. How great can a screenplay be when Heath Ledger can’t even be bothered to properly articulate 50% of it? And am I wrong here or wasn’t the movie more about the things that went unsaid more than the things that WERE said? Plus it’s sharing a category with Munich, which was all about the screenplay. It was filled with dialogue, maybe even too much. At times the movie WAS the screenplay (if that makes any sense at all). It was also written by Tony Kushner who is one of the greatest writers alive and should always be given any award he is ever nominated for just by default. And his screenplay for Munich was so good and so unlike any other screenplay this or any year that it almost seemed out of place on a movie screen. It was intelligent and shockingly literate and way too good for a movie-going public that supports two Paul Walker movies being in the box office top 10 at the same time (which I think if I’m not mistaken is one of the signs of the apocalypse specifically mentioned in Revelations). I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard such an intelligently articulated discourse on big ideas at a movie theater. So of course its gonna lose to fucking cowboys. And I mean that literally.

(And while we’re talking about Brokeback, why is it seemingly totally okay to be making so many jokes about Brokeback? Why is this okay with the gay community? This would be like if Barbershop 2 was up for Best Picture and mainstream pop culture became permeated with jokes about black people who hang out in barbershops. Would this be at all okay? Wouldn’t the black community be outraged by jokes based on stereotypes of black people who hang out in barbershops? And can a movie really be socially groundbreaking at the same time it’s a national punch line? Maybe Brokeback is proving that it can be, but does no one else find it interesting that everyone seems to have absolutely no problem with all the jokes about it? Does the movie's success mean we’ve come a long way, or does the universal acceptance of jokes about it mean we haven’t come anywhere at all? And why is no one writing about this subject? And can't I ever write a sentence that doesn’t have a question mark at the end?)

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich

Best Original Screenplay:
I actually managed to obtain a copy of the entire Crash screenplay and I thought posting it here might help shine some light on this category.

“Crash: A Searing Portrait of Racism In America As Only Two Rich White Liberals From L.A. Could Tell It”
By Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco

Scene opens on a white woman in her car. She is white.

White Woman: I am a white woman. I live in Los Angeles, a place that is very representative of all of America. I feel so alone and isolated. In order to feel connection to people I need to literally crash into them.

(She crashes her car into the car in front of her. A Chinaman gets out.)

Chinaman: Ching chang walla walla bing bang!

White woman: Wow, I feel so connected to you now. I love people.

Chinaman: My blake lights! You boke my blake lights!

White woman: Shut up you slanty eyed chink face.

Ryan Phillippe: Hey that’s racist! I’m offended by your racist behavior. And because of that fact, you would never in any way possibly even remotely suspect that I’m secretly scared of black people. In fact if I was to randomly shoot a black guy for no reason, it would completely shock and stun you because you would never in a million years have been able to predict that that might happen.

White woman: What he hell are you talking about?

Ryan Phillippe: Racism, stupid. That’s all everyone EVER talks about. 24 hours a day we all just sit around talking about and thinking about racism. We have no thoughts or personality attributes or actions that don’t directly involve racism. You of all people should realize that – you’re white.

Sandra Bullock: Hi I’m Sandra Bullock.

All: What the hell are you doing here?

Sandra Bullock: How the fuck should I know? All I know is that I really hate Mexicans.

Ryan Phillippe: Wow, that’s really subtle.

Sandra Bullock: If you think that’s subtle you should see A History of Violence!

(They all laugh.)

Ludacris: Are you all laughing at my acting?

All: AHHH! A BLACK PERSON! Who the hell are you?!?

Ludacris: I’m Ludacris.

White Woman: So is this movie.

(They all laugh.)

The End.

Will Win: Trash (aka Crash)
Should Win: The Squid and the Whale


Top 3 & 1/2 of the Week:
1.) Bob Dylan – “Freewheelin Bob Dylan” (album) (duh)
2.) Dave Chapelle
3.) “George Bush Doesn’t Like People” - The Legendary K.O.
3 & 1/2.) New Dutchwest article: http://dutchwestoven.blogspot.com/2006/02/andy-stokan-thank-you-dakota-fanning.html

Thought of the Week:
“If Jay Leno makes you laugh, chances are I don’t care for you as a person.” – Peter Griffin