Need far too many words about and picks for every category at this year's Oscars? Need to know if Gravity is indeed an undeniable force? (sorry, had to.) Then read on...
Visual Effects
So I’ll kick this thing off with my little spiel on Gravity:
Gravity is a great film. Original, suspenseful,
breathtaking, and masterfully made, but will all the hype and accolades given
to it this year seem utterly ridiculous 50 years from now? I think they
will. Because if there was ever a movie that’s not going to age well it’s a
movie that’s almost entirely a special effects showpiece. Now I know there was
a great suspenseful narrative and a wonderful performance by Sandra Bullock at
the heart of the film, but ultimately none of that matters if the movie doesn’t
create a stunningly realistic you-are-really-there vision of outer space. And
with technology becoming outdated at record speeds I seriously doubt that even 20
years from now the outer space of Gravity
will look anything other than cheesy and fake. This is why making “NEW” the
main selling point of anything is both a blessing and a curse. But I guess with
Gravity we’ll cross that bridge
when we get there. For now the Academy can already start engraving this statue.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Are they two technical awards that seem basically
interchangeable and that 98% of the voters have no real way to objectively
quantify or judge? Then give them to Gravity!
Will Win: Gravity!
Should Win: Gravity?
Live Action Short
I haven’t seen any of these but by all accounts Just
Before Losing Everything is supposed to be
the best of the bunch. But its also the longest and subtitled. Everyone seems
to be picking The Voorman Problem
instead because its in English and stars Martin Freeman, the only recognizable
name/face in the category. I’m gonna go the other way and predict that the
people willing to vote for this category are too old to care who Martin Freeman
is and have penty of time to sit through and soak in the only 30-minute-long Just
Before Losing Everything.
Will Win: Just Before Losing Everything
Should Win: Who knows
Animated Short
I actually have a strong and educated opinion on this! I
didn’t see all of the nominees like I often do, but I did see Get a Horse! and there's no way it’s losing. It’s a tribute to
old Hollywood (check) and the magic and craft of movie making (check) but it
uses new technology and new techniques to feel inventive and original (check). It’s
the first animated Disney film to ever be directed by a woman (check), it’s
produced by modern animation god John Lasseter (check), has the power of the
Disney machine behind it (check), and features a voice performance by freaking
Walt Disney himself (all of the checks). This is a lock.
Will Win: Get a Horse!
Should Win: Get a Horse!
Documentary Short
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a 109-year-old piano-playing Holocaust survivor
(who died during the final week of Oscar voting!). So thanks for coming all
other nominees, but you’re no longer needed because The Lady in
Number 6: Music Saved My Life is about a
109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR (WHO DIED DURING THE FINAL WEEK
OF OSCAR VOTING)
Will Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR
Should Win: THE 109-YEAR-OLD PIANO-PLAYING HOLOCAUST
SURVIVOR
Production Design
They should just rename this award the Baz Luhrmann Award. (By which I really mean the Catherine Martin Award. But whatever.)
In related news, congrats to Wes Anderson for winning next
year’s Baz Luhrmann/Catherine Martin Award for his work on The Grand
Budapest Hotel!
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Costume Design
When in doubt with this category ask yourself, did any of
the nominees this year inspire their own collection at Brooks Brothers or
Tiffanys? If still in doubt, ask yourself, did any of the nominees involve
lavish period party scenes with thousands of costumed extras? And if still in doubt, ask yourself did any of the nominees
contain a memorable scene where Leonardo DiCaprio literally threw costumes directly into
the camera? If the answer to all of these is yes then you have your winner.
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Original Song
It seems weird that the Year of Pharrell isn’t going to
capped by an Oscar win for Pharrell, but unfortunately it seems that nothing is
going to stand in the way of Robert Lopez EGOTing for “Let It Go”. Now considering Robert Lopez’s Emmy is only
a Daytime Emmy I don’t think it should count as a true EGOT. And also, since
this category doesn’t contain Lana Del Rey’s “Young and Beautiful” its results
shouldn’t count anyway. But whatever. I expected a bit more from the composer
of Avenue Q and Book of Mormon than “Let It Go”, but it’s gonna be a Broadway
staple from now until the sun explodes so I guess it winning here is fine. But
seriously, go listen to “Young and Beautiful” again. It will make you feel all
of the feelings. The ones that “Let It Go” is only playing at.
Will Win: “Let It Go”
Should Win: “Happy” (but also “Young and Beautiful”)
Original Score
Considering how little dialogue there actually was in Gravity it relied on its score far more than any of the
other nominated movies. And since none of these scores were particularly memorable
on their own, voters will just think back to which one they remembered being
most impactful on its film. And Gravity’s certainly was the most obvious in that regard. But it also felt like
it could have been made by pretty much anyone and plugged into pretty much any
epic high-class adventure movie.
Win Butler’s score for Her though could have only been made by members of Arcade Fire and
only been used for Her. It helped
vividly create the world in which Her takes place, filling in what the production design and costumes
couldn’t. It created a mood, yet felt unobtrusive while doing it. That sort of
work doesn’t generally win awards, but it should. Plus how cool would it be to
add Arcade Fire (or basically Arcade Fire) to the list of unexpected music
branch Oscar winners alongside Eminem, Three 6 Mafia and Trent Reznor? To
answer my own question, it would be awesome.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Her
Makeup
Please let it be Jackass.
Please let it be Jackass. Please
let an actual human being say the sentence “And the Oscar goes to Jackass
Presents: Bad Grandpa”. Oh please sweet
lord in heaven let it be Jackass.
(Spoiler alert: It won’t be Jackass)
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Film Editing
Uhhhhhh…..
I have no idea.
And when in doubt this year go with Gravity.
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity I
guess
Cinematography
Lubezki!
Finally, a chance to make up for one of the all time Oscar
travesties: Emmanuel Lubezki not winning for Children of Men. Or for Tree of Life. Or for anything he’s ever done. But there’s a zero
percent chance that doesn’t get remedied this year.
You’re up next Roger
Deakins
(Fun fact: Did you know that Emmanuel Lubezki also shot Reality
Bites???)
(Fun fact II: Did you know that I have friends?)
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Documentary Feature
This is a tough one. I haven’t actually seen any of these,
but feel like I know enough about them to make a pretty informed guess.
This category has really changed since the old days when the
winner used to always be the most depressing talking head documentary they
could find. In recent years populist and relatively uplifting films like Searching
for Sugarman, Undefeated, Man on Wire and March of the Penguins
have all won. Which would seem to point to 20 Feet From Stardom winning this year. But it seems like Act
of Killing has been seen by just as many,
if not more people, it’s supposed to be undeniably powerful, and despite the
changing nature of the category I still say genocide tops underappreciated
backup singers. But I could easily be wrong.
Will Win: Act of Killing
Should Win: Act of Killing
Animated Film
I haven’t seen any of these because I’m strictly ride or die
Team Pixar but Frozen is made by Disney (which is Pixar-adjacent),
is pulling in Titanic money and good reviews, and has what seems like particularly
weak competition. So congrats to Frozen for coming out the year before The Lego Movie is eligible to win all of the awards ever.
Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: Frozen
Foreign Language Film
I find it hard to believe that these were truly the five best
foreign language films released last year as none of these had anything even
remotely approaching a wide release. But then there’s a long and storied
history of this category making no sense so this year is really just par for
the course.
While most Oscar prognosticators are saying that The Hunt is coming on strong I’m going to stick with the only
nominee that I remember playing at multiple theaters around Los Angeles in the
past few months: The Great Beauty.
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: wish I knew
Adapted Screenplay
It's absurd that Before Midnight is up for adapted screenplay. The reason given for the classification is that it's based on existing characters, but by that logic every screenplay to a sequel should be an adapted screenplay. Which would be idiotic. But whatever.Before Midnight is in the running for my all-time favorite film and that's largely on the strength of its screenplay. The magic of the Before movies is that watching them is like being able to eavesdrop on the greatest conversations of all time. The dialogue is what we wish we could all sound like when we talk. But it has an ease and naturalness to it that barely makes it seem like dialogue at all. It's the platonic ideal of a screenplay. But it has no shot here. Because 12 Years a Slave feels too important not to give it to. Which I'm fine with. It's a worthy winner. But in another world, in another life, Before Midnight winning sure would be nice.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Before Midnight
Original Screenplay
Woody Allen is Woody Allen and if there’s ever a year Woody
Allen isn’t winning an Oscar it’s this one. Dallas Buyers Club is already likely winning three other awards so
voters will feel like it’s been honored enough. So that leaves three Best Picture
nominees who likely aren’t going to win anything else. So which one does the
Academy want to throw a bone to? Well you can never count Alexander Payne out
of a screenplay race, only Nebraska
wasn’t written by Alexander Payne, it was written by Bob Nelson, and no one
knows who Bob Nelson is (and having the worlds most generic name probably isn’t
helping with that). So that leaves David O. Russell for American
Hustle (can some rapper please use the line
“I’m an American hustle like David O. Russell”?) or Spike Jonze for Her.
American Hustle at
one point seemed like the Best Picture front-runner but has since faded in a huge
way. Still, with all those nominations it seems crazy that it will leave
empty-handed. But is screenplay really the place to honor it? Most of the complaints about the movie (including mine) are
that it seemed like a bunch of great performances in search of a story. Seriously, I doubt
even David O. Russell himself could neatly and accurately summarize the plot of
the movie. He’s even basically admitted that he really only cared about
character, not story, which can be fine, but in this case it let to a movie
that felt like an unorganized mess. It was series of engaging scenes and then
it was over, having said nothing and making no emotional impact.
Her on the other hand, was bursting with thoughts and
ideas and feelings. It spoke to who we are, how we live, and where we might be
headed. It was universal and deeply personal. It was one of the best films of
the past 10 years largely because it was so masterfully constructed. And it
felt thrilling original. Which is after all one of the key words in the title
of this category. So while it seems improbable that the out-of-touch old men
who make up the bulk of the Academy
membership and probably don't even own cell phones would give an award to Her, I really think Spike Jonze takes this one. A boy can hope anyway.
Will Win: Her
Should Win: Her
Supporting Actress
This is clearly a two woman race and if Jennifer Lawrence
hadn’t just won last year she would take it easily. But she DID just win last
year. And since this award could easily, most years, be re-titled “Hottest
Newcomer” instead of “Best Supporting Actress” a previous win would seem to
disqualify her. But she’s so good in American Hustle and she’s America’s reigning sweetheart (and our
future supreme ruler) that you can’t count her out. Lupita Nyong’o though seems
to have all the momentum now. She’s the hip choice, has run a great campaign,
given great speeches, won most of the precursor awards, and oh yeah, gave the
better performance. Oscars have been won for far less than her soap scene alone
in 12 Years a Slave, and she had
many more scenes of equal difficulty and power. So while the margin is going to
be razor thin, Lupita is going to take this round. But don’t cry for Jennifer
Lawrence; all she has left is everything else in the world.
Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o
Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o
Supporting Actor
If you want to see how far we haven’t come in this country in our attitudes towards the
gay community look no further than the response to Jared Leto’s performance in Dallas
Buyers Club. The word thrown around most
often about it is “brave”? But why is it “brave”? Because he’s playing a
transgender person? Explain to me what’s “brave” about that. Because I didn’t
realize that portraying someone different than yourself was considered “brave”;
I thought it was just called doing your job as an actor. I mean isn’t that
literally the dictionary definition of acting? Now this is certainly a very reductive way
to view these roles, but if we’re going to base our awards voting on which
performance is the most “brave” isn’t taking pleasure out of whipping black
women while yelling the N-word at them much more emotionally difficult and
uncomfortable in 2013 than putting on a dress and pretending to be attracted to
men? Based on the overwhelming support for Jared Leto it would appear not. His performance is humane and touching, but it’s nowhere near the level of
Michael Fassbender’s work. It seems for most voters though, that it’s not about the
work itself. It’s about rewarding Jared Leto for his “courage” in taking on the
part. As a voter told Entertainment Weekly about why he was voting for Jared
Leto, “it’s a very risky performance that you could easily be ostracized for.”
So you could be ostracized for playing a transgender person but not for playing
a sociopathic racist? That says so much about Hollywood and America and the
Academy. And it makes me sad that we’re not further along as a culture, and
that Michael Fassbender is going to get reverse-Brokebacked, but mostly that “Academy Award Winner Jared Leto”
is now a thing that is going to be true.
Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Actress
Cate Blanchett is winning this more than anyone has ever won
anything. Which is really saying something since this is a very good group of
nominees. When Meryl Streep is the weakest of the bunch you know you’ve got a
solid category. But Cate Blanchett is blowing them all off the map so it hardly
seems worth discussing. So instead let’s talk about Amy Adams.
Were you aware that Amy Adams is slowly becoming one of the
most critically acclaimed actresses of all time? It’s true. Here’s the compete
list of actresses with more Oscar nominations than Amy Adams by the time they
turned 40: Kate Winslet, Deborah Kerr, Norma Shearer, Bette Davis, and Meryl
Streep. That’s it. Maybe not strictly a murderers row, but still, surprised Amy
Adams is in such elite company aren’t you? But you shouldn’t be because Amy
Adams has become a shockingly reliable signifier of quality. She’s quietly
become the queen of the indie prestige project. Need proof? Leaving out Man of Steel
here are the directors of her last four films: David O. Russell, Spike Jonze,
Clint Eastwood, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Now that IS a murderers row. Is Amy
Adams, the princess from Enchanted (a role for which I still maintain she
should have been Oscar nominated), really the new Kate Winslet? Or even the new
Meryl Streep? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. And American Hustle is her finest
work yet. She’s an absolute revelation in it. And in any other year she takes
home the statue. No one is beating Cate Blanchett this year, but don’t worry,
if we’ve learned anything about Amy Adams, it’s that she’ll be back.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Actor
Matthew McConaughey is this year’s Ben Affleck. He's going to win for turning his career around as much as for the work itself. And in
that sense True Detective is the anti-Norbit. Seeing constant ads for the show are a great
reminder of just how complete his career transformation has been. And speaking
of transformations, the only thing Oscar voters love more than redemption
narratives are physical transformations for roles. So although it seems weird
that in one of the best years ever for actors the Oscar is going to go to
Matthew McConaughey, that’s almost certainly what’s about to happen. And that’s
a shame. Because while it’s a great performance and a worthy winner, there are
two performances I like even better.
Chiwetel Ejiofor is the heart and soul of 12 Years a Slave (and has one of the only names harder to spell than
McConaughey). Giving a great performance as the lead of the Best Picture
frontrunner is usually enough to win an Oscar. But despite all his suffering
and gnashing of teeth, the bulk of his performance is actually, due to the nature of the
part, very internal. For me the nuance and subtext of the performance are what
make so great, but that non-bombastic nature in addition to Chiwetel being a
virtual unknown prior to this year is probably going to keep him from winning a
brutally tough category.
On the opposite end of the bombastic spectrum is my pick, if
I had one, Leonardo DiCaprio. For years I’ve found Leo to be somewhat stiff and
unbelievable, so it makes sense that his two best performances would be Django
Unchained and The Wolf of Wall
Street, two movies where he didn’t concern
himself with naturalism or seriousness. By embracing his inner comedic
character actor he paradoxically finally comes off as comfortable in his own
skin. It’s like he finally realized that he’s always been miscast as himself.
He works much better when he’s someone else. And there was no more extreme
someone else to be in film last year than Jordan Belfort. And Leo wrings every
bit out of the part that he can. The speeches, the boat confrontation with Kyle
Chandler, the final fight with Margot Robbie – it’s just three straight hours
of Oscar-worthy scenes. The Quaaludes scene alone should have won him an Oscar
and was the best ten minutes of any movie released in 2013. It should be shown
to aspiring physical comedians everywhere. Leonardo DiCaprio is the new Jim
Carrey; who knew? Ultimately though Leo is getting shafted here because the character was so
unlikable and because large numbers of voters had issues with the film. But Leo
will never be better, Jordan Belfort is going to go down as his most iconic non-Titanic role, and 10 years from now it’s going to look criminal and inexplicable that
he didn’t win the Oscar for it. There continues to be no justice with regards
to Jordan Belfort, only this time in an entirely different way.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Director
I think 12 Years a Slave
is by far the best picture. And Steve McQueen is huge reason why. I don’t think
another person alive could have taken the same material as made it as powerful
and memorable. But considering Ang Lee won this award last year for Life
of Pi it’s clear that this award often
means MOST direction. And I’m fine with that. If you spend years of your life
trying to realize a singular and seemingly impossible vision and finally pull
it off brilliantly while pushing the entire art form forward in the process you
deserve an Oscar for your efforts. So this is a really close call for me. But I
thought James Cameron should have won for Avatar, and for the same reasons I think Alfonso Cuaron
should take it this year. Which is what he’s going to do whether I want him
to or not.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Picture
This is at this point a two picture race. So let's just focus on those two:
Gravity is a
thoroughly original and entertaining movie. It’s a technical marvel and
visually unlike anything that has come before.
12 Years a Slave is
the new Schindlers List. It’s going to be taught in schools. Seeing it changed how I view the world.
As I’ve said countless times over the years, The Oscars
matter because they are a historical document. A record of what mattered. An
imperfect, flawed, often egregiously wrong record, but the one record that we
know will still be around and still be referenced in 100 years. In 200 years.
In 1,000 years. And what do we want on that record as the best film of 2013?
Something that will soon look like a primitively shot space epic with a rail
thin plot, or the most well-crafted and accurate look yet at one of humanity’s
most important and painful chapters?
In Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar preview they stated “In
short, 12 Years is heartbreaking; Gravity is groundbreaking”. I agree. And only one of those
qualities is one that lasts.
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
Should Win: 12 Years A Slave
