Dear Oscar Producer and Director Don Mischer,
You’re an idiot.
How did you think that any of that was going to be good?
And don't say that it was the hosts' fault. People today are saying that they were a disappointment. But they can’t be considered a disappointment if you didn’t expect anything from them in the first place. Unless of course you did. Which you must have. Which mean that you’re an idiot.
And your "journey" that you prepared us for? What was it? The image of old movies that you played in the background? Were we supposed to be impressed by a large screen that showed moving images? Isn’t that kind of the whole essence of why we were even there in the first place?
And other than that what was your plan for the night? Show clips from old movies and play music to underscore everything? Had you thought it out past that? No you hadn't. And so what you were left with was an abomination. An abomination that made last year’s boringness seem like a virtue. Because at least boring isn’t painfully, uncomfortably bad. Which is what this was. Believe when I tell you that this year’s show will go down in the annals of terrible Oscar lore. Rob Lowe and Snow White are offically off the hook. And all because you, Don Mischer, are a stupid fucking idiot.
Just to show you how easy your job is, I'll do it myself. I'll take every memorable or noteworthy element of your show and show you in one sentence how you could have EASILY made each one infinitely better with even a minimal amount of work or brainpower. And yes I realize some of these things were out of your control, but I don’t care. I’m blaming you for everything that happened. Because I feel like it.
And hopefully, in the future, perhaps people will stop and ask themselves "will this be good?" before they ask themselves "will people watch this?".
But as it’s Hollywood I’m dealing with, I’m not holding my breath.
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Thing That Happened: No one wrote any jokes for the hosts.
I liked all of the jokes in that opening film spoof segment. All none of them. And then the hits kept coming. I mean James Franco standing there in drag telling a Charlie Sheen joke? Totally original and hilarious! What genius writes these things? And how DO they do it?
How It Could Have Been Improved: Let random people on the Internet contribute jokes.
The show was seemingly obsessed with new technology and the Internet, perhaps as a make good for its snub of “the facebook movie”. There were "jokes" about texting and apps and social networking. And James Franco was tweeting throughout the show. So clearly the show knows that the Internet exists. And therefore they must be aware that at this point people get way more entertainment from twitter and live blogs than they do from listening to the handiwork of Bruce Vilanch's corpse. So why not just have people tweet jokes at you and then use the best ones? I'll even show you how it’s done by sprinkling some jokes and comments from the Internet throughout the rest of this piece. And it will be better for it. Just you wait and see.
Thing That Happened: James Franco and Anne Hathaway hosted.
He may not have had great material, but wow, James Franco KILLED it out there. No, literally. He killed it. I think a few old ladies died from boredom. Also, I shot myself in the face.
Are we totally sure that he got the memo that he was supposed to at least try to be funny? Does he know that thats pretty much what his entire job description was? Does he even know what humor is? Like as a concept?
(BTW James, you can’t be six degrees of Kevin Bacon away from someone if that person is not Kevin Bacon. That’s not how the game works.)
I’m going to go out on a limb and make a crazy prediction here: James Franco will not be asked back to host the Oscars again. EVER. Ricky Gervais and Howard Stern will be asked to co-host before they ask James Franco back.
But he wasn’t alone in his badness.
Before I say anything else let me state for the record that I love Anne Hathaway. And when I say that I love Anne Hathaway I mean that I LOOOOVE Anne Hathaway. She’s probably my number one gal. But last night was not her finest hour. I mean, that musical number she did was…wow...it was…a thing that happened. And while I appreciate her trying to single-handedly save the show, she's not really a person who is equipped to do that. So while all the extreme vitriol other women in particular were throwing her way on the Internet last night really set off my women’s studies sensors and made me more than a little uneasy with its intensity, suffice it to say I too agree that future hosting gigs are not in her future.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Having Billy Crystal (or pretty much anyone else in the entire world) host.
This just in - young movie stars are attractive. They are not however, good awards show hosts. (Hugh Jackman excepted).
Billy Crystal however, is. His getting a standing ovation was a clear sign that we collectively as a people recognize that and really want him back. And he will be back. Next year in fact.
I promise.
And just remember when it's officially announced that you heard it here first.
Speaking of attractive people though...
Thing That Happened: Mila Kunis showed everyone up.
What were the odds during Season 1 of That 70s Show that Mila Kunis one day would be the most attractive person at the entire Academy Awards (narrowly edging out Kirk Douglas of course)?
I just hope she doesn’t go all Johansson on us. By which I mean that other than Lindsey Lohan, has anyone’s perceived level of attractiveness taken a bigger and more inexplicable hit in the past five years than Scarlett Johansson? At one point she was arguably the most attractive person in the world, and yet now I would actually think less of you as a person if you openly admitted to being attracted to her.
(Also, not to be rude, but that Natalie Portman sure has gained a lot of weight...)
How It Could Have Been Improved: Have Jennifer Connelly show up.
Thing That Happened: Kirk Douglas stole the show.
I think that might be a bad sign when your hosts get totally showed up in the comedy department by a 94 year old stroke victim. Thank goodness Kirk Douglas didn’t have a set scheduled last night at The Laugh Factory because I don’t know what the show would have done without him. I only hope that at 94 that I'm still awesome enough to be a trending topic on twitter. Speaking of which, my favorite twitter joke of the night was Alex Baze's "Kirk. See him again next year in montage form."
How It Could Have Been Improved: If Kirk Douglas had presented Best Foreign Language Film as well.
(Hey now at least I'll be able to keep Alex Baze company in hell)
Thing That Happened: Living Legend Roger Deakins inexplicably gotsnubbed for an Oscar for the ninth time.
This a fucking outrage.
Who does Roger Deakins gotta shoot to get an Oscar?
No really.
Who?
How It Could Have Been Improved: Three 6 Mafia finding him in the audience and laughing in his face.
(The essence of that joke courtesy of AV Club commenter Side Item)
Thing That Happened: Jack Nicholson wasn’t there.
How It Could Have Been Improved: He should never not be there until the day he dies. And maybe even after that. It should be a law.
Thing That Happened: Trent Reznor, Academy Award Winner
This is the most exciting thing that happened all night. I literally clapped and jumped up and down. And I could care less about Trent Reznor personally and would be hard pressed to name more than three NIN songs. It’s just really awesome in principle. Plus he’s now already halfway to EGOTing. And I have a feeling "The Downward Spiral: The Musical" is going to be a big hit at the 2014 Tonys.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Also giving Maynard James Keenan an Oscar.
Thing That Happened: Melissa Leo gave a terrible speech.
You knew you were probably going to win right, Melissa Leo? You’ve had at least three months to prepare, but really you’ve had your whole life. And that’s the best you could come up with? I never understand when people go up there and seem completely unprepared like that. It’s probably the biggest moment of your entire life - that’s not worth at least some modicum of advance preparation or thought? That’s just inexplicable to me. But then that’s why I’m not a crazy person.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Giving Christian Bale's speech instead.
I don't know how the speech she gave could have really been improved other when she said “Dick’s not in the room” having someone yell out “That’s what she said”. But what she could have done was just become a totally different person and give a totally different speech. Specifically Christian Bale. Because his was funny and human and touching and everything hers wasn’t. And that’s because, as everyone has always said about Christian Bale, he's such a nice charming young man.
Thing That Happened: Colin Firth was very, very British.
Colin Firth starting his Oscar acceptance speech by saying “I fear my career might have just peaked” is possible the most British thing that has ever happened. And yet somehow he only got more British from there.
How It Could Have Been Improved: If he had dropped a few F-bombs.
A verbose, articulate, witty, and self-deprecating speech? Hey Colin Firth, what do think this is, the BAFTA Awards? This is America, damn it. Start crying and make your speech rambling and incoherent already. Enough of your dignified charms. You're making the rest of us look bad.
Thing That Happened: Aaron Sorkin giving a boring speech.
WTF Sorkin?!? Just a list of people? No social statement? No quotable lines? No witty quips? Good lord man, Colin Firth showed you up with his verbosity. Hell, David Seidler showed you up. And he’s like a hundred and five. And he gave a shout out to stutters. Stutterers! What were people with high blood pressure and those with slight limps too controversial for him? And yes, I know his movie was about a guy with a stutter, but still…
How It Could Have Been Improved: Sorkin starting his speech by saying "An Oscar isn't cool. You know what’s cool? A BILLION Oscars." And then segueing into an unused Josiah Bartlett monologue.
Thing That Happened: No applause during the death montage?!?!?
Hey they got something right! And it only took them 82 years!
How It Could Have Been Improved: Have Adele sing under it.
Celine Dion is the Bob Hope of death montage underscoring. Adele will soon be its Billy Crystal.
Thing That Happened: The Academy coming off as overly sensitive about their perceived lack of racial diversity.
Lena Horne is certainly great and important. And it’s certainly a good thing to honor her. She deserves it. But it felt a bit like simply an obvious political ploy to address the lack-of-black-nominees pseudo-controversy.
Way It Could Have Been Improved: The Academy not feeling so guilty about its supposed lack of diversity.
It was an off-year for African American filmmakers and performers. I don’t want to say “it’s as simple as that” because whether it’s just an off-year or likely a broader problem with Hollywood as a whole and the way movies get made is a different and much more involved discussion. But as far as the Academy Awards are concerned, name one African American actor, actress, writer, director or producer who deserved to get nominated this year and then tell me whose nomination slot they should have had. The best I can come up with is Halle Berry for Frankie and Alice but that performance isn’t better than any of the five that were nominated (or even the unnominated Julianne Moore and Lesley Manville for that matter). And while the Academy at one point had a definitely deserved bad reputation for their shameful and embarrassing lack of diversity, those days are over, at least in the acting branch. Over the past ten years out of a potential 200 acting nominations, African American actors have gotten 22 of them, or 11%. And out of 40 acting awards, African American actors have won 7 of them, or 17.5%. Considering that during that time frame African Americans made up between 10-13% of the total population of the United States those percentages are certainly nothing The Academy should feel overly guilty about or apologetic for.
So sure, this year there were no African American nominees. On the surface that of course doesn’t look great. But there are deeper issues causing that. I mean, why are we still not seeing more diverse casts in indie, awards-season type dramas? Why has the entire African-American marketplace been apparently ceded to Tyler Perry and Ice Cube? Where is the next Spike Lee or John Singleton, and why have neither of them produced consistently good work in AT LEAST 10 years? Why are African American actors still largely not bankable oversees? When is the next novel by Sapphire getting turned into a movie? (Sorry, couldn’t help it.) These are all questions that should be legitimately discussed and examined. But viewing The Academy as latently racist or as having a poor track record of honoring worthy black performers? That ship has thankfully sailed.
Thing That Happened: Gweneth Paltrow sang a song.
So what, are we not allowed to have an award show without Gweneth Paltrow signing now? Who does she think she is, Neil Patrick Harris?
How It Could Have Been Improved: If she was backed up by Peacock Cee-Lo and the Muppets
Thing That Happened: Having Auto-Tune the News and PS 22 involved with the show.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Getting Sad Keanu involved as well.
(BTW, did anyone ask the PS 22 kids who they were wearing? I must know!)
Thing That Happened: Toy Story 3 won Best Animated Feature (of course).
To quote Todd VanDerWerff, "They're eventually going to just rename this award the Randy Newman Memorial Award for Pixar's Best Animated Feature Film."
How It Could Have Been Improved: Toy Story 3 NOT Winning Best Animated Feature.
The emperor is wearing moderately nice but not that impressive clothes people! Accept it. Deal with it. Move on. And start bracing for the inevitable reality that Cars 2 aint winning this thing next year.
(My Pixar Fan Club membership has now officially been revoked for heresy.)
Thing That Happened: Hillary Swank presented Best Director.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Hillary Swank presenting Best Actress.
Thing That Happened: Tom Hooper won Best Director.
Really Academy?!? Tom Hooper? Really? A plurality of Academy members thought that Tom Hooper was the best director of the year? To quote this Raphael Bob-Waksberg tweet “WTF IS A TOM HOOPER? I NEVER HEARD OF NO TOM HOOPER WTF”
Also, name one thing he brought to The Kings Speech that Luke Matheny couldn’t have brought to it. The Kings Speech is the very definition of competent yet personality-less. And you bypassed David Fincher for it? To quote Bill Simmons, “Hooper over Fincher was a travesty. I forgot how much I hate the Oscars. What a farce. And I liked King's Speech. But come on...”
No wonder Christopher Nolan didn’t get nominated. You apparently have no idea what a director is or what they do or how to evaluate them.
On the bright side though, now Red Dust can join Point Break and In Love and War as movies made by Academy Award Winning Directors. So there’s that.
How It Could Have Been Improved: Immediately after he got off stage introducing Tom Hooper to John G. Avildsen and Robert Benton
And lastly,
Thing That Happened: The Kings Speech won Best Picture.
How It Could Have Been Improved: The Academy properly understanding the meaning of the word "best".
Showing posts with label Oscars 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oscars 2011. Show all posts
Monday, February 28, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
What to Expect from The Bizarro Grammys: A 2011 Oscar Preview
For years The Grammys and The Oscars were friends. They hung out together, had a lot in common and were viewed the same way: as prestigious and significant yet slightly corny, political, and behind-the-times crap shoots. But in recent years a funny thing happened. As The Oscars became more predictable, The Grammys became absurdly random and unpredictable. As The Oscars (with some notable exceptions) started to make more progressive, hipper, and culturally relevant choices, the Grammys slid even further and further into old fogey-dom. As The Oscars became less about who ran the best campaign and who spent the most money wooing voters, The Grammys seemed to do the exact opposite. And as the coverage of and seeming weight given to The Oscars has increased, people stopped caring about or even acknowledging the existence of The Grammys all together. Now instead of being Xerox copies of each other, The Grammys and The Oscars are mirror images. And that’s what makes the most results of the most recent Grammy Awards so interesting.
America is still buzzing about the Esperanza Spalding and Arcade Fire Grammy wins. They made The Grammys front page news. Just yesterday in fact, I found myself engaged in two separate conversations about The Grammys. And The Grammys were two weeks ago at this point. That’s an eternity in pop culture time. Especially for an event that in years prior no one paid even the slightest attention to. But this year The Grammys zigged where they were expected to zag and in doing so they captured the national conversation. Which raises the interesting question - how will the Granddaddy of Them All respond? Likely, not well. They’ve already announced that they’re doing away with the "five past winners/colleagues pay tribute to the five current nominees" gimmick they did the past two years which I was a very vocal fan of. And it’s hard to see James Franco and Anne Hathaway even at their very best transcending the level of "tolerably pleasant". Most interestingly though, after years of making forward thinking choices, The Academy looks like it might be falling back into old habits. Just as The Grammys threw us for a loop by making a good choice, The Oscars look set to do the same by making a bad one. Just when we thought we had figured out who they are they both go and change on us. And so the Grammy/Oscar dance begins anew. How are they alike? How are they different? And what would it be like if one was run by the other? To explore that I’ve chosen what the winner in every category should be. And then who the Grammys would likely choose if they were in charge. And then who the Oscars likely will choose themselves come Sunday night. Compare, contrast, and discuss the choices. Or likely do none of the above. Because ultimately there’s probably only one thing that matters to you. Only one reason why you’re here. And that’s to win your Oscar pool.
Good luck.
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The Shorts:
Yes, this is the place that competitive Oscar pools are won or lost. It’s also the most random and unpredictable. And not just because no one has seen any of the nominees. In fact whenever I have seen the nominees I’ve found I’ve usually been more off in my predictions than when I just read the names off a sheet of paper. Trying to guess these things will drive you mad. It’s like the Best Pop Performance By a Duo or Group With Vocals Grammy category - so wide ranging and eclectic that's it’s like trying to choose between apples and oranges in a situation where the jury only eats meat. So while I can make my picks, who the hell knows who will or should win. It’s a nonsensical crapshoot, which I believe also describes the Grammys to a T.
*Animated Short
My Pick: The Gruffalo
I don’t have a whole lot to say about this one other than get your Mark Ruffalo/The Gruffalo jokes ready now. Also, yes kids, it IS possible to beat Pixar.
The Grammys Pick: The Gruffalo is filled with voice performances from well-known actors. And there’s no surer way to The Grammys' heart than as many big names as possible all collaborating on something. That’s why you can pencil in "All Of The Lights" for at least one Grammy next year. Pen it in actually.
The Oscars Pick: The Gruffalo
*Documentary Short:
My Pick: Strangers No More, you had me at "Israeli children".
"Learning about cultural diversity" "overcoming ethnic tensions" "Middle East" and "heartwarming" were just the icing on the Oscar-bait cake.
The Grammys Pick: Killing in the Name shares a title with a Rage Against the Machine song that topped the charts in the UK last Christmas. Seems like as arbitrary a reason as any to give something an award.
The Oscars Pick: Either Strangers No More or Killing in the Name
*Live Action Short
My Pick: Provided that Na Wewe is pronounced like it looks, it’s my pick. And if it is pronounced how I hope it is, then when it wins, the announcement of "and the Oscar goes to...Na Wewe" will be one of the greatest moments in Live Action Short Oscar history, just behind when the Music By Prudence woman pulled a Kanye on her co-director last year.
The Grammys Pick: The Crush
I’m guessing The Grammys would pick this category the way they pick most of their winners - by throwing darts at a dartboard. And in this scenario I’m saying that their hypothetical dart landed on the name The Crush. Simple as that.
The Oscars Pick: The Confession
It seems to be what people in the know are predicting will win. Which means it probably won’t. Or maybe it will. Whatever.
Visual Effects
My Pick: Inception
It may not win Screenplay or even be nominated for Director or Editing, but at least as consolation Inception has this esteemed category that has been won by the likes of Spider Man 2 and Death Becomes Her in the bag.
The Grammys Pick: Inception
Even the Grammys couldn’t screw this one up.
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Sound Mixing
My Pick: Inception
While watching Inception I often found myself thinking "Holy shit that sound was well mixed!" Or maybe I just dreamed that I did.
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Inception is too confusing and highbrow for the Grammys. And people who listen to adult contemporary radio like Harry Potter right? And it’s been around forever so it feels safe and familiar. And it made a lot of money. And no one knows what Sound Mixing is anyway. Least of all The Grammys. I mean what do they know about judging the quality of sound? (Zing!)
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Sound Editing
My Pick: The only thing better than the way the sounds were mixed in Inception was the way that they were edited together. I mean, oh my god! Am I right?
(No really, am I?)
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Don’t believe me that this would be their pick? Well, this Harry Potter book has actually already won a Grammy! So there.
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Giving it three Oscars on the night.
(Not for nothing, but these are three of the four Oscars that The Matrix won in 1999. The other being Editing which Inception would have won had it been nominated.)
Makeup
My Pick: Ah, Best Makeup. The category which allows Quest for Fire and Harry and the Hendersons to call themselves Academy Award winning movies. Which is my way of saying that this category sucks. I haven’t seen any of these nominees, but The Wolfman seems like it required the most work. So, um, I'll go with that.
The Grammys Pick: The Way Back
Because why not. ("Because why not" is a phrase that The Grammys say often)
The Oscars Pick: The Wolfman
It's makeup icon (there’s a phrase you don’t hear too much) Rick Baker. And he made a man turn into a wolf. (Although that man was Benicio del Toro so it’s debatable how much work that actually required...)
Art Direction
My Pick: If by “Art Direction” you mean “the sensation that my eyes are on fire” then I’ve gotta go with Alice and Wonderland. If “Art Direction” means something else then I have no idea.
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
The hypothetical Grammy juggernaut rolls on. (If Harry Potter could somehow be turned into music you just know that it would cleanup at The Grammys.)
The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
This is a category that could easily get caught up as part of a Kings Speech sweep and I don’t feel good about this pick at all. But the look of Kings Speech was just so drab and dreary, and in this category, as with Costume Design, the flashiest nominee almost always wins. Speaking of which…
Costume Design
My Pick: The Tempest
Since Spiderman: Turn Off The Dark is probably the end of Julie Taymor’s theater career for awhile, her film career could use a little encouragement. And The Tempest did genuinely have great costumes. So she’s got that going for her. Which is nice.
The Grammys Pick: Black Swan
Black Swan’s costumes are like an album of similar sounding songs elevated greatly by one monster single. So I’m sure The Grammys love it. And so will half the girls you know next year for Halloween.
The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
Yes a Best Picture front-runner about the British monarchy would seem to be the obvious choice. But the British monarchy in question happens to be the dowdy 1930s version. And Best Costume Design is all about flash. And Alice in Wonderland has that in spades over The Kings Speech. Plus, as I always say, when in doubt go with either Colleen Atwood or Sandy Powell. So Colleen it is, to tie Sandy with three wins apiece.
(Note: I’m a huge nerd)
Editing
My Pick: Inception
Oh wait…
The Grammys Pick: 127 Hours
Just because it would thoroughly infuriate me. If there’s an option that would make me apoplectic if it won, then that’s the nominee The Grammys like to choose. Yes, it’s that personal.
The Oscars Pick: Inception’s loss is The Social Network’s gain. The Academy would definitely love to give this to The Kings Speech, but it all unfolds in a linear fashion in only a small handful of locations. That’s not the stuff Best Editing Oscars are made of.
Animated Feature
My Pick: The Social Network
Why? Let Me Count the Ways:
1.) Not nearly enough people named Atticus have won Oscars.
2.) "Academy Award Winner Trent Reznor" is just too awesome of a phrase not to be true.
3.) Did I mention that his co-writer is named Atticus Ross?
4.) This is groundbreaking, cutting-edge, game changing work. It’s almost TOO good to be nominated. It’s the only nominee here that in 20 years will still matter.
5.) If The Social Network takes this category then that means that the best The Kings Speech can likely do is tie them for total number of Oscars. And hey, it may not be Best Picture, but it’s something.
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
It's stately, old school, boring, and by an established name. Tailor made-for The Grammys.
The Oscars Pick: The Social Network
Here's the real test right here. The Oscars of 20 years ago would give this thing to The Kings Speech in a heartbeat. It's the Best Picture front-runner and this is exactly the type of category that gets thrown in as part of the Best Picture Sweep. And Alexandre Desplat is overdue. And his score sounds exactly what you'd expect an Academy Award winning score to sound like.
But.
In recent years A.R. Rahman has won this. Gustavo Santaolalla has won it twice. Eminem and Three 6 Mafia have won recent awards from the music branch. So the times they are (maybe) a-changin. Especially when a score this “important” is one of the nominees. And when Hans Zimmer’s Inception score will likely siphon some of the classical score vote away from The Kings Speech.
And so it seems that a somewhat minor category will somewhat fittingly speak volumes about not just how broad and enthusiastic support for The Kings Speech is but also the state of The Academy as a whole.
Here’s one for hope.
Song
My Pick: Randy Newman is, of course, the man. And while I may have been underwhelmed by the movie itself, I thought "We Belong Together" was real Pixar/Randy Newman delight. Also, the .0001% chance that Kanye might appear out of nowhere to interrupt Randy Newman's speech to say "Imma let you finish, but Taylor Swift had the best song called ‘We Belong Together’ of ALL TIME" makes want to root like hell for it to win.
The Grammys Pick: I've seen absolutely no one anywhere pick “Country Strong” or even mention it in passing. It's an afterthought with no actual prayer of winning. Which means of course that The Grammys are taking it all the way.
The Oscars Pick: No category on the ballot is tougher to predict this year than this one. On the one hand the Randy Newman song is, well, a Randy Newman song. On the other hand, those have a surprisingly poor track record at the Oscars. It’s from a great movie and is featured prominently in it, but you could say the same thing about "If I Rise". It’s from a Disney movie, which is often a good sign, except for the fact that in recent years that has been more of a hindrance than a help. Also it's probably going to suffer a good deal of vote splitting with the song from Tangled. Which means that the pick here would seem to be the perfectly fine "If I Rise" from past winner and music legend in his own right A.R. Rahman. Except for the fact that my gut still says "We Belong Together". And sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.
Documentary Feature
My Pick: This is also tough one. All good nominees, but with all due respect to Restrepo it comes down to a battle between Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job. Exit Through the Gift Shop is probably the better film, but Inside Job is probably the better documentary, if that makes any sense. It's the movie Michael Moore wishes he made if he made better movies (and I generally like Michael Moore). I think about Exit Through the Gift Shop all the time, especially now that I live in LA, but I think people will still be thinking about Inside Job 30 years from now, probably even more than they do today. It’s the story of our times. And it’s probably our Hearts and Minds. So while I wish in an ideal world for a tie, Inside Job is getting my (hypothetical) vote.
The Grammys Pick: Inside Job is too good and too culturally vital, Restrepo is too critically acclaimed, and Waste Land is too indie which leaves Gasland and Exit Through the Gift Shop. Exit Through The Gift Shop sold the most tickets and is the most mainstream, two things the Grammys love, but Gasland would be a clear WTF choice here. Hard to say what’s more "Grammy". But since the mainstream no-nothing crowd is all picking Exit Through the Gift Shop, I'm giving Gasland the slight edge
The Oscars Pick: Inside Job
For the reasons I outlined above.
The Grammys Pick: Biutiful got terrible reviews, is in this category just based on the reputation and name-recognition of the people involved, and is the only nominee middle-America might have remotely heard of. A perfect recipe for Grammy success.
The Oscars Pick: This category is notoriously unpredictable as only a handful of people are actually eligible to vote on it. And the people that do vote have an average age of about 102. Which means if I had to guess I would probably go with In a Better World as it seems like the nominee most likely to appeal to the old-fogey set. But really anything could happen. Including the award not being given out at all on account of all the eligible voters killing themselves after sitting through Biutiful.
Original Screenplay
My Pick: Christopher Nolan - Inception
Film-related things people talked about this year: The greatness of The Social Network, the brilliance of Christian Bale, the beauty of True Grit, the lesbian-ness of Black Swan, and, most of all, the screenplay of Inception. People spoofed it, quoted its dialogue, discussed its meanings, and debated its ending. How confusing/challenging/interesting/original it was or wasn't was the pop culture conversation topic du jour of 2010. And I don’t want to live in a dream level where it doesn’t win Best Original Screenplay.
The Grammys Pick: Scott Sliver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington - The Fighter
If there’s anything the Grammys love it’s as many people as possible collaborating on something. And since it’s taken four people to write each of the past two Songs of the Year, it seems like four might be an especially magic number.
(Semi-interesting Oscar fact: Although it used to be relatively common, The Fighter is only the 4th time in the past 40 years that four or more people have shared an Original Screenplay nomination. The three others? The Deer Hunter, Splash, and the original Toy Story which was written by seven people including Andrew Stanton, Pete Doctor, John Lasseter and Joss Whedon. Yes, that Joss Whedon. That’s like film equivalent of The Dana Carvey Show writing staff. Incredible.)
The Oscars Pick: David Seidler - The Kings Speech
Ah David Seidler, that great bastion of modern screenwriting. As future scholars write their dissertations on the deeper meanings of your legendary tomes they will look back on this Oscar win as the beginning of an artistic cannon the likes of which has never been equaled in the history of man. Or, more likely, your by-the-numbers screenplay will be a blip on the march to obscurity. But hey, a screenplay straight out of “How to Write a Populist Prestige Movie for Dummies” written by some nobody is certainly a good reason to pass up perhaps the crowning achievement and life’s work of one of our era’s great Oscar-less screenwriters. So good on you Academy. Good on you.
Adapted Screenplay
My Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
As president of the Aaron Sorkin Fan Club this award will be the highlight of the night for me. And is also the lock to end all locks. Sorkin could have stopped writing this screenplay after the first ten pages, literally just stopped Sopranos-finale style, and he still would have won this thing in a walk. I only wish that they published the vote totals so I could know if this was the biggest margin of victory in Oscar history or not. But whatever. Cameron Crowe, Charlie Kaufman and now Aaron Sorkin. All my favorite writers will finally be able to polish their Oscars together in the circle jerk of my dreams. And in the end that’s all that matters.
The Grammys Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
This is like when Sgt. Pepper won Album of the Year. Sometimes even The Grammys gotta reco'nize.
The Oscars Pick: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Cinematography
My Pick: True Grit
Did you know that Roger Deakins has never won an Academy Award? How is that possible? That’s as big an outrage as Gordon Willis not having an Oscar.
Well fortunately that will be remedied this year. (The Roger Deakins thing that is. Willis is still shit out of luck.) And best of all it won’t even be a makeup Oscar. It’s one that will be earned entirely on its own merits. Because True Grit was fucking gorgeous.
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
I’m pretty sure the concept of cinematography would be too complicated for Grammy voters. They would just go with the movie they liked the best.
The Oscars Pick: Although I found True Grit to be a bit slight, “slight” shouldn’t confused with “not good”. But even the movie’s most vocal detractors would admit that’s it’s a visual stunner. This fact cannot and has not ever been questioned. So while Danny Cohen’s work in The Kings Speech is fine, True Grit is just too good to deny. The Roger Deakins element may push it over the top, but the cinematography of True Grit would be honored even if Victor Hammer was the man behind it.
(And yes, I did just look up the name of the cinematographer of Billy Madison.)
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick: Christian Bale
Continuing with our theme of shocking Oscar facts, did you know that Sam Rockwell has never even been nominated for an Oscar? How is that possible? I know no one saw Conviction, but in most years his work in it would have been good enough to win this category. And yet he’s not even nominated. And while that’s a mild outrage I honestly don’t know who here I would bump for him. And that in a nutshell is why this is one of the strongest categories/group of nominees in Academy Awards history. Sound like a crazy statement? Then consider the fact that you could make a pretty strong a category just from the performances omitted - Sam Rockwell, Andrew Garfield, Armie Hammer, Matt Damon, Bill Murray. Other than maybe Bill Murray aren’t all of those performances better than any of the nominees from 2006? No one seems to be talking about this category much, but it can easily stand with 1992, 1994, and 2007 as one of the great Best Supporting Actor classes of all time. Any of these nominees would be a worthy winner in almost any other year. This year though it’s all about Christian Bale. And how far ahead he is of the rest of the pack, considering the strength of the competition, says all you need to know about the brilliance of his work.
The Grammys Pick: Geoffrey Rush
It’s the old fogey choice. Christian Bale is too out there and in-your-face and daring. Geoffrey Rush is like a nice warm sweater. His is a Supporting Actor performance just like they used to make ‘em in the good old days. I don’t mean that to be a criticism of his work per se, I just mean it to be a reason the Grammys would respond to it so well.
The Oscars Pick: Christian Bale
There is an outside shot, no matter how remote, that Geoffrey Rush could win. And in pretty much every other year he would be the runaway favorite. Because he’s fantastic. But this year, if he wins it would be an outrage of the highest order. And that’s a testament to the greatness of Christian Bale. And provided that he does indeed win, it should just be noted what an epic Best Supporting Actor run we’re on here. Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men, Heath Ledger as The Joker, Christoph Waltz last year, and now Christian Bale. All iconic, legendary, all-time great performances. This just might be the golden age of male supporting acting. Or it might be some strange fluke. Regardless though, it’s awesome and should be talked about more. Keep it going next year fellas.
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick: Amy Adams would seem to be just what Oscar wants - a hot, youngish leading lady uglying herself up and displaying a heretofore unknown range. That’s the recipe for like 20% of all Oscar wins. And yet for reasons unknown, Amy Adams is an afterthought this year. She’s not even the one who should be most upset though. This category was Julianne Moore’s for the taking, only she stupidly decided to campaign for Lead Actress rather than Supporting. Sure maybe voters would have thought her part was too big to be supporting, but maybe they wouldn’t have, and if she had been nominated she would have won easily. But instead her hubris, or her representatives’ hubris, likely cost her an Oscar.
Without Julianne Moore in the race in the race it allows to focus on the fact that Amy Adams, who pulled off a performance that even a huge fan like myself though there was no way she could do, will for the third time unjustly go down in defeat. Are people just taking her for granted at this point or something? You realize that the lead of the Disney movie Enchanted just played a poor, trashy, Masshole bartender and played her completely believably right? Just checking.
The Grammys Pick: Melissa Leo is old, an industry veteran, yet no one really knows or cares who she is, and her work in The Fighter is just a semi-repeat of work she's done better previously - sounds like a Grammy winner to me!
The Oscars Pick: Okay, here’s this year’s potential buzz and excitement. Melissa Leo has won all the precursor awards and is still the definite frontrunner according to most prognosticators. But coming from someone who has been studying these things a long time I just don’t see her winning and I never have. This category notoriously almost never goes to women over 40. And whenever two actresses from the same movie are nominated they almost always split the vote. And there’s another nominee in the same category who plays a variation on the exact same character thereby siphoning off even more of Melissa Leo’s potential votes. And I have yet to meet anyone who was passionate about her performance. She seems like the most buzz-free frontrunner ever. I just don’t feel any passionate support for her at all.
Hailee Steinfeld on the other hand, has a slew of very vocal supporters. The most common comment about True Grit, other than how beautiful the movie is, is how good the girl is in it. That’s a conversation I myself have had with friends, and that I have overheard many other people having with their friends. And there’s plenty of precedent for a young precocious girl winning this award. Much more than for an older character actress winning. Just ask Lauren Bacall, Gloria Stuart, Frances McDormand, or Ruby Dee how their Oscar nights turned out. So I’m predicting that it’s young Hailee Steinfeld here and keeping my fingers crossed that she doesn’t grow up and go all Paquin on us.
Best Actress
My Pick: Does Annette Benning deserve an Oscar? Yes. Of course. For this role, and for her body of work as a whole. She should have multiple Oscars already in fact. She is one of the great actresses of her generation and yet never seems to get the level of respect she dearly deserves. And am I generally a big Natalie Portman fan? No I am not. I think she’s way overrated as an actress and as a geek-boy dream girl. But when given the right project where she has to cry a lot and act frightened, she can knock it out of the park. (Thats a big part of the reason for her geek-boy appeal, but that’s a topic for another time...) And Black Swan is the definition of that project. As an actor myself I know I’m supposed to respect the subtle humanity of Benning's work over the flashy grandstanding of Portman's, but honestly I still found myself thinking about Natalie Portman’s work in Black Swan days afterwards. It resonated deeper with me than Annette Benning's work. Maybe that’s not fair or right, but it’s true. And while Christian Bale gave the best performance of the year, Natalie Portman gave what is likely to go down as the most iconic. So move over Hilary Swank, there’s a new Hilary Swank in town and her name is Natalie Portman.
The Grammys Pick: Annette Benning
Because she's the old, established, unhip choice who should have already won for better work years ago.
The Oscars Pick: Natalie Portman
When in doubt always go with most young, attractive, hot name. The dirty little secret of The Oscars is that the Academy membership is largely male. And the dirty little not-at-all-secret is that men generally like attractive young women. There’s a reason that only three actresses over the age of 40 have won Best Actress in the past 20 years (Sandra Bullock doesn’t count). And no, that reason is not "sheer coincidence". This "race" was over way before it even began.
Best Actor
My Pick: Colin Firth
We don’t actually need to spend time discussing this one do we?
The Grammys Pick: Everyone thinks it will be Colin Firth. He’s the only logical choice. He seems like a pretty mortal lock. You would probably bet your life on it if you could. That’s why The Grammys are gonna go with Jeff Bridges.
The Oscars Pick: Colin Firth
Best Director
My Pick: David Fincher
When I heard David Fincher was set to direct the Aaron Sorkin facebook movie I was confused. It made no sense. That didn’t sound like a David Fincher movie at all. And it wasn’t. But, then, ultimately, it was. Because he made it into one. He took a Sorkin script and turned it into a movie that had viewers on the edge of their seats in anticipation of a Winklevi finding a box with his brother’s head in it. For that he deserves the Oscar hands down. Plus he’s way overdue. So give him his Oscar already so he can stop making Benjamin Button (a movie I liked BTW) and go back to making straight-up David Fincher movies. Thanks.
The Grammys Pick: The question you always need to ask yourself with The Grammys is – who would a middle-aged housewife vote for? And I feel extremely confident that a middle aged housewife would vote for Tom Hooper.
The Oscars Pick: David Fincher
In pretty much every other category the Academy is willing to honor any fly-by-night American Idol reject who did good work; but when it comes to Best Director they are very protective of the category’s integrity. You almost always gotta have a proven track record to win this one. There’s a reason John Madden, Rob Marshall and Paul Haggis all lost Best Director the year their movies won Best Picture. And it’s the same reason Tom Hooper’s pleasant but undistinguished work is going to lose here this year. It’s because he’s a no name at this point who seems likely to never make another truly great film. Maybe he will, but maybe he won’t, and that possibility means that this is going instead to the big name who has never won. Maybe next time Mr. Hooper. If there is a next time.
Best Picture
My Pick: Here are some of the things critics said about The Social Network - "An American Landmark", "A Once-In-A-Generation Movie", and "Revolutionary. Absolutely emblematic of its time and place".
And here are some things that I just made up just now that critics said about The Kings Speech - "Very Enjoyable and Well Made", "A Quality Film", and "Thoroughly Competent".
And that, my friends, is the decision that Oscar voters are faced with. Do they make the fresh, forward-thinking, culturally relevant choice, or do they make the safe, predictable, out of touch choice. Sure it’s not like last year where the future of the independent studio system was at stake. And The Kings Speech is a perfectly fine movie and all. But still. What do we value? Pleasant entertainments, or culturally vital art? What kind of movies do we want there to be more of? Because if we go back to rewarding formulaic prestige pictures like The Kings Speech, then we run the risk of the indie studios producing nothing but a slate of movies where Meryl Streep has AIDS in the Holocaust. And sure some of those would likely be decent enough, but I thought we were past that. No Country for Old Men, The Departed, The Hurt Locker - these are all different types of movies than the Academy of old used to honor. Do they want to take a step backwards? What do they want to say about this year in film? What do they want to say about our cultural and artistic values and ideals? What is the statement they want to make for posterity? Who are they as an organization?
They are an organization that I hope will do the right thing. And I genuinely think that there’s a legitimate chance that they will. But if not, well, it’s exactly the kind of thing that…
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
...the Grammys would do
The Oscars Pick: The Kings Speech
America is still buzzing about the Esperanza Spalding and Arcade Fire Grammy wins. They made The Grammys front page news. Just yesterday in fact, I found myself engaged in two separate conversations about The Grammys. And The Grammys were two weeks ago at this point. That’s an eternity in pop culture time. Especially for an event that in years prior no one paid even the slightest attention to. But this year The Grammys zigged where they were expected to zag and in doing so they captured the national conversation. Which raises the interesting question - how will the Granddaddy of Them All respond? Likely, not well. They’ve already announced that they’re doing away with the "five past winners/colleagues pay tribute to the five current nominees" gimmick they did the past two years which I was a very vocal fan of. And it’s hard to see James Franco and Anne Hathaway even at their very best transcending the level of "tolerably pleasant". Most interestingly though, after years of making forward thinking choices, The Academy looks like it might be falling back into old habits. Just as The Grammys threw us for a loop by making a good choice, The Oscars look set to do the same by making a bad one. Just when we thought we had figured out who they are they both go and change on us. And so the Grammy/Oscar dance begins anew. How are they alike? How are they different? And what would it be like if one was run by the other? To explore that I’ve chosen what the winner in every category should be. And then who the Grammys would likely choose if they were in charge. And then who the Oscars likely will choose themselves come Sunday night. Compare, contrast, and discuss the choices. Or likely do none of the above. Because ultimately there’s probably only one thing that matters to you. Only one reason why you’re here. And that’s to win your Oscar pool.
Good luck.
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The Shorts:
Yes, this is the place that competitive Oscar pools are won or lost. It’s also the most random and unpredictable. And not just because no one has seen any of the nominees. In fact whenever I have seen the nominees I’ve found I’ve usually been more off in my predictions than when I just read the names off a sheet of paper. Trying to guess these things will drive you mad. It’s like the Best Pop Performance By a Duo or Group With Vocals Grammy category - so wide ranging and eclectic that's it’s like trying to choose between apples and oranges in a situation where the jury only eats meat. So while I can make my picks, who the hell knows who will or should win. It’s a nonsensical crapshoot, which I believe also describes the Grammys to a T.
*Animated Short
My Pick: The Gruffalo
I don’t have a whole lot to say about this one other than get your Mark Ruffalo/The Gruffalo jokes ready now. Also, yes kids, it IS possible to beat Pixar.
The Grammys Pick: The Gruffalo is filled with voice performances from well-known actors. And there’s no surer way to The Grammys' heart than as many big names as possible all collaborating on something. That’s why you can pencil in "All Of The Lights" for at least one Grammy next year. Pen it in actually.
The Oscars Pick: The Gruffalo
*Documentary Short:
My Pick: Strangers No More, you had me at "Israeli children".
"Learning about cultural diversity" "overcoming ethnic tensions" "Middle East" and "heartwarming" were just the icing on the Oscar-bait cake.
The Grammys Pick: Killing in the Name shares a title with a Rage Against the Machine song that topped the charts in the UK last Christmas. Seems like as arbitrary a reason as any to give something an award.
The Oscars Pick: Either Strangers No More or Killing in the Name
*Live Action Short
My Pick: Provided that Na Wewe is pronounced like it looks, it’s my pick. And if it is pronounced how I hope it is, then when it wins, the announcement of "and the Oscar goes to...Na Wewe" will be one of the greatest moments in Live Action Short Oscar history, just behind when the Music By Prudence woman pulled a Kanye on her co-director last year.
The Grammys Pick: The Crush
I’m guessing The Grammys would pick this category the way they pick most of their winners - by throwing darts at a dartboard. And in this scenario I’m saying that their hypothetical dart landed on the name The Crush. Simple as that.
The Oscars Pick: The Confession
It seems to be what people in the know are predicting will win. Which means it probably won’t. Or maybe it will. Whatever.
Visual Effects
My Pick: Inception
It may not win Screenplay or even be nominated for Director or Editing, but at least as consolation Inception has this esteemed category that has been won by the likes of Spider Man 2 and Death Becomes Her in the bag.
The Grammys Pick: Inception
Even the Grammys couldn’t screw this one up.
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Sound Mixing
My Pick: Inception
While watching Inception I often found myself thinking "Holy shit that sound was well mixed!" Or maybe I just dreamed that I did.
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Inception is too confusing and highbrow for the Grammys. And people who listen to adult contemporary radio like Harry Potter right? And it’s been around forever so it feels safe and familiar. And it made a lot of money. And no one knows what Sound Mixing is anyway. Least of all The Grammys. I mean what do they know about judging the quality of sound? (Zing!)
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Sound Editing
My Pick: The only thing better than the way the sounds were mixed in Inception was the way that they were edited together. I mean, oh my god! Am I right?
(No really, am I?)
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Don’t believe me that this would be their pick? Well, this Harry Potter book has actually already won a Grammy! So there.
The Oscars Pick: Inception
Giving it three Oscars on the night.
(Not for nothing, but these are three of the four Oscars that The Matrix won in 1999. The other being Editing which Inception would have won had it been nominated.)
Makeup
My Pick: Ah, Best Makeup. The category which allows Quest for Fire and Harry and the Hendersons to call themselves Academy Award winning movies. Which is my way of saying that this category sucks. I haven’t seen any of these nominees, but The Wolfman seems like it required the most work. So, um, I'll go with that.
The Grammys Pick: The Way Back
Because why not. ("Because why not" is a phrase that The Grammys say often)
The Oscars Pick: The Wolfman
It's makeup icon (there’s a phrase you don’t hear too much) Rick Baker. And he made a man turn into a wolf. (Although that man was Benicio del Toro so it’s debatable how much work that actually required...)
Art Direction
My Pick: If by “Art Direction” you mean “the sensation that my eyes are on fire” then I’ve gotta go with Alice and Wonderland. If “Art Direction” means something else then I have no idea.
The Grammys Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
The hypothetical Grammy juggernaut rolls on. (If Harry Potter could somehow be turned into music you just know that it would cleanup at The Grammys.)
The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
This is a category that could easily get caught up as part of a Kings Speech sweep and I don’t feel good about this pick at all. But the look of Kings Speech was just so drab and dreary, and in this category, as with Costume Design, the flashiest nominee almost always wins. Speaking of which…
Costume Design
My Pick: The Tempest
Since Spiderman: Turn Off The Dark is probably the end of Julie Taymor’s theater career for awhile, her film career could use a little encouragement. And The Tempest did genuinely have great costumes. So she’s got that going for her. Which is nice.
The Grammys Pick: Black Swan
Black Swan’s costumes are like an album of similar sounding songs elevated greatly by one monster single. So I’m sure The Grammys love it. And so will half the girls you know next year for Halloween.
The Oscars Pick: Alice in Wonderland
Yes a Best Picture front-runner about the British monarchy would seem to be the obvious choice. But the British monarchy in question happens to be the dowdy 1930s version. And Best Costume Design is all about flash. And Alice in Wonderland has that in spades over The Kings Speech. Plus, as I always say, when in doubt go with either Colleen Atwood or Sandy Powell. So Colleen it is, to tie Sandy with three wins apiece.
(Note: I’m a huge nerd)
Editing
My Pick: Inception
Oh wait…
The Grammys Pick: 127 Hours
Just because it would thoroughly infuriate me. If there’s an option that would make me apoplectic if it won, then that’s the nominee The Grammys like to choose. Yes, it’s that personal.
The Oscars Pick: Inception’s loss is The Social Network’s gain. The Academy would definitely love to give this to The Kings Speech, but it all unfolds in a linear fashion in only a small handful of locations. That’s not the stuff Best Editing Oscars are made of.
Animated Feature
My Pick: I’m about to say something heretical: if I had a vote for Best Animated Feature I would vote for How to Train Your Dragon.
Please don’t shoot me.
Look, I love Pixar. Let me rephrase that. I LOOOOOOOOVE Pixar. Andy and Pixar sittin in a tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G. If Pixar was a religion I would enter the seminary tomorrow. But. I didn’t love Toy Story 3. I thought it was good, certainly. I very much enjoyed it. But I also thought it was a bit safe and predicable. After pushing the envelope with each of their past few releases Toy Story 3 felt like a bit of a retreat for Pixar into the easy and comfortable and familiar. And I don’t go to my 3D animated kids movies for comfort. I go to them to see robots in a dystopian trash-scape teach children about the dangers of unregulated capitalism. And so while Pixar was off talking about the sadness of death and the ennui of aging, I turned to the dreaded Dreamworks, of all people, for my moving and challenging exploration of cultural misunderstanding, racism, prejudice, and why war is wrong. Kids are innately gonna figure out the Toy Story 3 shit eventually. How to Drain Your Dragon though is truly important stuff, well told. It’s the perfect movie for the Age of Obama. So while I feel a bit like Fredo going against the family here, I gotta say that How to Train Your Dragon is more deserving of this award.
I hope that we can still be friends.
The Grammys Pick: Toy Story 3
“Safe Unthreatening And Familiar” is The Grammys’ middle name
The Oscars Pick: Toy Story 3
There’s no way it loses. But just to let you know that I’m not completely out of my mind for somewhat hoping that it does, I’ll let the great Raphael Bob-Waksberg have the last word here:
Score“What I have come to love most about Pixar is how fully they create brand new worlds with each movie, so revisiting these characters again felt like a wasted opportunity— especially with the knowledge that the next Pixar release will be Cars 2. We’re not getting another new Pixar world to explore until 2012’s Brave, the first Pixar movie with a female protagonist, which will be immediately followed by a Monster’s Inc. sequel.
Toy Story 3 covers a lot of ground already covered in the Toy Story series and I felt like I could see the strings more than I wanted to. But that’s nitpicking. I have no real complaints about Toy Story 3. It was great and hilarious and moving and terrifying and bold.
But when you’re talking about Pixar, just ‘great and hilarious and moving and terrifying and bold’ is kind of a disappointment.”
My Pick: The Social Network
Why? Let Me Count the Ways:
1.) Not nearly enough people named Atticus have won Oscars.
2.) "Academy Award Winner Trent Reznor" is just too awesome of a phrase not to be true.
3.) Did I mention that his co-writer is named Atticus Ross?
4.) This is groundbreaking, cutting-edge, game changing work. It’s almost TOO good to be nominated. It’s the only nominee here that in 20 years will still matter.
5.) If The Social Network takes this category then that means that the best The Kings Speech can likely do is tie them for total number of Oscars. And hey, it may not be Best Picture, but it’s something.
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
It's stately, old school, boring, and by an established name. Tailor made-for The Grammys.
The Oscars Pick: The Social Network
Here's the real test right here. The Oscars of 20 years ago would give this thing to The Kings Speech in a heartbeat. It's the Best Picture front-runner and this is exactly the type of category that gets thrown in as part of the Best Picture Sweep. And Alexandre Desplat is overdue. And his score sounds exactly what you'd expect an Academy Award winning score to sound like.
But.
In recent years A.R. Rahman has won this. Gustavo Santaolalla has won it twice. Eminem and Three 6 Mafia have won recent awards from the music branch. So the times they are (maybe) a-changin. Especially when a score this “important” is one of the nominees. And when Hans Zimmer’s Inception score will likely siphon some of the classical score vote away from The Kings Speech.
And so it seems that a somewhat minor category will somewhat fittingly speak volumes about not just how broad and enthusiastic support for The Kings Speech is but also the state of The Academy as a whole.
Here’s one for hope.
Song
My Pick: Randy Newman is, of course, the man. And while I may have been underwhelmed by the movie itself, I thought "We Belong Together" was real Pixar/Randy Newman delight. Also, the .0001% chance that Kanye might appear out of nowhere to interrupt Randy Newman's speech to say "Imma let you finish, but Taylor Swift had the best song called ‘We Belong Together’ of ALL TIME" makes want to root like hell for it to win.
The Grammys Pick: I've seen absolutely no one anywhere pick “Country Strong” or even mention it in passing. It's an afterthought with no actual prayer of winning. Which means of course that The Grammys are taking it all the way.
The Oscars Pick: No category on the ballot is tougher to predict this year than this one. On the one hand the Randy Newman song is, well, a Randy Newman song. On the other hand, those have a surprisingly poor track record at the Oscars. It’s from a great movie and is featured prominently in it, but you could say the same thing about "If I Rise". It’s from a Disney movie, which is often a good sign, except for the fact that in recent years that has been more of a hindrance than a help. Also it's probably going to suffer a good deal of vote splitting with the song from Tangled. Which means that the pick here would seem to be the perfectly fine "If I Rise" from past winner and music legend in his own right A.R. Rahman. Except for the fact that my gut still says "We Belong Together". And sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.
Documentary Feature
My Pick: This is also tough one. All good nominees, but with all due respect to Restrepo it comes down to a battle between Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job. Exit Through the Gift Shop is probably the better film, but Inside Job is probably the better documentary, if that makes any sense. It's the movie Michael Moore wishes he made if he made better movies (and I generally like Michael Moore). I think about Exit Through the Gift Shop all the time, especially now that I live in LA, but I think people will still be thinking about Inside Job 30 years from now, probably even more than they do today. It’s the story of our times. And it’s probably our Hearts and Minds. So while I wish in an ideal world for a tie, Inside Job is getting my (hypothetical) vote.
The Grammys Pick: Inside Job is too good and too culturally vital, Restrepo is too critically acclaimed, and Waste Land is too indie which leaves Gasland and Exit Through the Gift Shop. Exit Through The Gift Shop sold the most tickets and is the most mainstream, two things the Grammys love, but Gasland would be a clear WTF choice here. Hard to say what’s more "Grammy". But since the mainstream no-nothing crowd is all picking Exit Through the Gift Shop, I'm giving Gasland the slight edge
The Oscars Pick: Inside Job
For the reasons I outlined above.
Foreign Language Film
My Pick: I hate to admit it but the only one of these nominees I’ve seen is Biutiful and suffice it to say I was not a fan. I’ve heard good things about Dogtooth, and it would be fun to root for a Greek movie, but that’s too uneducated of a reason to pick something in a major category like this. So honestly, I have to say I really have no opinion.The Grammys Pick: Biutiful got terrible reviews, is in this category just based on the reputation and name-recognition of the people involved, and is the only nominee middle-America might have remotely heard of. A perfect recipe for Grammy success.
The Oscars Pick: This category is notoriously unpredictable as only a handful of people are actually eligible to vote on it. And the people that do vote have an average age of about 102. Which means if I had to guess I would probably go with In a Better World as it seems like the nominee most likely to appeal to the old-fogey set. But really anything could happen. Including the award not being given out at all on account of all the eligible voters killing themselves after sitting through Biutiful.
Original Screenplay
My Pick: Christopher Nolan - Inception
Film-related things people talked about this year: The greatness of The Social Network, the brilliance of Christian Bale, the beauty of True Grit, the lesbian-ness of Black Swan, and, most of all, the screenplay of Inception. People spoofed it, quoted its dialogue, discussed its meanings, and debated its ending. How confusing/challenging/interesting/original it was or wasn't was the pop culture conversation topic du jour of 2010. And I don’t want to live in a dream level where it doesn’t win Best Original Screenplay.
The Grammys Pick: Scott Sliver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington - The Fighter
If there’s anything the Grammys love it’s as many people as possible collaborating on something. And since it’s taken four people to write each of the past two Songs of the Year, it seems like four might be an especially magic number.
(Semi-interesting Oscar fact: Although it used to be relatively common, The Fighter is only the 4th time in the past 40 years that four or more people have shared an Original Screenplay nomination. The three others? The Deer Hunter, Splash, and the original Toy Story which was written by seven people including Andrew Stanton, Pete Doctor, John Lasseter and Joss Whedon. Yes, that Joss Whedon. That’s like film equivalent of The Dana Carvey Show writing staff. Incredible.)
The Oscars Pick: David Seidler - The Kings Speech
Ah David Seidler, that great bastion of modern screenwriting. As future scholars write their dissertations on the deeper meanings of your legendary tomes they will look back on this Oscar win as the beginning of an artistic cannon the likes of which has never been equaled in the history of man. Or, more likely, your by-the-numbers screenplay will be a blip on the march to obscurity. But hey, a screenplay straight out of “How to Write a Populist Prestige Movie for Dummies” written by some nobody is certainly a good reason to pass up perhaps the crowning achievement and life’s work of one of our era’s great Oscar-less screenwriters. So good on you Academy. Good on you.
Adapted Screenplay
My Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
As president of the Aaron Sorkin Fan Club this award will be the highlight of the night for me. And is also the lock to end all locks. Sorkin could have stopped writing this screenplay after the first ten pages, literally just stopped Sopranos-finale style, and he still would have won this thing in a walk. I only wish that they published the vote totals so I could know if this was the biggest margin of victory in Oscar history or not. But whatever. Cameron Crowe, Charlie Kaufman and now Aaron Sorkin. All my favorite writers will finally be able to polish their Oscars together in the circle jerk of my dreams. And in the end that’s all that matters.
The Grammys Pick: Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
This is like when Sgt. Pepper won Album of the Year. Sometimes even The Grammys gotta reco'nize.
The Oscars Pick: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Cinematography
My Pick: True Grit
Did you know that Roger Deakins has never won an Academy Award? How is that possible? That’s as big an outrage as Gordon Willis not having an Oscar.
Well fortunately that will be remedied this year. (The Roger Deakins thing that is. Willis is still shit out of luck.) And best of all it won’t even be a makeup Oscar. It’s one that will be earned entirely on its own merits. Because True Grit was fucking gorgeous.
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
I’m pretty sure the concept of cinematography would be too complicated for Grammy voters. They would just go with the movie they liked the best.
The Oscars Pick: Although I found True Grit to be a bit slight, “slight” shouldn’t confused with “not good”. But even the movie’s most vocal detractors would admit that’s it’s a visual stunner. This fact cannot and has not ever been questioned. So while Danny Cohen’s work in The Kings Speech is fine, True Grit is just too good to deny. The Roger Deakins element may push it over the top, but the cinematography of True Grit would be honored even if Victor Hammer was the man behind it.
(And yes, I did just look up the name of the cinematographer of Billy Madison.)
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick: Christian Bale
Continuing with our theme of shocking Oscar facts, did you know that Sam Rockwell has never even been nominated for an Oscar? How is that possible? I know no one saw Conviction, but in most years his work in it would have been good enough to win this category. And yet he’s not even nominated. And while that’s a mild outrage I honestly don’t know who here I would bump for him. And that in a nutshell is why this is one of the strongest categories/group of nominees in Academy Awards history. Sound like a crazy statement? Then consider the fact that you could make a pretty strong a category just from the performances omitted - Sam Rockwell, Andrew Garfield, Armie Hammer, Matt Damon, Bill Murray. Other than maybe Bill Murray aren’t all of those performances better than any of the nominees from 2006? No one seems to be talking about this category much, but it can easily stand with 1992, 1994, and 2007 as one of the great Best Supporting Actor classes of all time. Any of these nominees would be a worthy winner in almost any other year. This year though it’s all about Christian Bale. And how far ahead he is of the rest of the pack, considering the strength of the competition, says all you need to know about the brilliance of his work.
The Grammys Pick: Geoffrey Rush
It’s the old fogey choice. Christian Bale is too out there and in-your-face and daring. Geoffrey Rush is like a nice warm sweater. His is a Supporting Actor performance just like they used to make ‘em in the good old days. I don’t mean that to be a criticism of his work per se, I just mean it to be a reason the Grammys would respond to it so well.
The Oscars Pick: Christian Bale
There is an outside shot, no matter how remote, that Geoffrey Rush could win. And in pretty much every other year he would be the runaway favorite. Because he’s fantastic. But this year, if he wins it would be an outrage of the highest order. And that’s a testament to the greatness of Christian Bale. And provided that he does indeed win, it should just be noted what an epic Best Supporting Actor run we’re on here. Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men, Heath Ledger as The Joker, Christoph Waltz last year, and now Christian Bale. All iconic, legendary, all-time great performances. This just might be the golden age of male supporting acting. Or it might be some strange fluke. Regardless though, it’s awesome and should be talked about more. Keep it going next year fellas.
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick: Amy Adams would seem to be just what Oscar wants - a hot, youngish leading lady uglying herself up and displaying a heretofore unknown range. That’s the recipe for like 20% of all Oscar wins. And yet for reasons unknown, Amy Adams is an afterthought this year. She’s not even the one who should be most upset though. This category was Julianne Moore’s for the taking, only she stupidly decided to campaign for Lead Actress rather than Supporting. Sure maybe voters would have thought her part was too big to be supporting, but maybe they wouldn’t have, and if she had been nominated she would have won easily. But instead her hubris, or her representatives’ hubris, likely cost her an Oscar.
Without Julianne Moore in the race in the race it allows to focus on the fact that Amy Adams, who pulled off a performance that even a huge fan like myself though there was no way she could do, will for the third time unjustly go down in defeat. Are people just taking her for granted at this point or something? You realize that the lead of the Disney movie Enchanted just played a poor, trashy, Masshole bartender and played her completely believably right? Just checking.
The Grammys Pick: Melissa Leo is old, an industry veteran, yet no one really knows or cares who she is, and her work in The Fighter is just a semi-repeat of work she's done better previously - sounds like a Grammy winner to me!
The Oscars Pick: Okay, here’s this year’s potential buzz and excitement. Melissa Leo has won all the precursor awards and is still the definite frontrunner according to most prognosticators. But coming from someone who has been studying these things a long time I just don’t see her winning and I never have. This category notoriously almost never goes to women over 40. And whenever two actresses from the same movie are nominated they almost always split the vote. And there’s another nominee in the same category who plays a variation on the exact same character thereby siphoning off even more of Melissa Leo’s potential votes. And I have yet to meet anyone who was passionate about her performance. She seems like the most buzz-free frontrunner ever. I just don’t feel any passionate support for her at all.
Hailee Steinfeld on the other hand, has a slew of very vocal supporters. The most common comment about True Grit, other than how beautiful the movie is, is how good the girl is in it. That’s a conversation I myself have had with friends, and that I have overheard many other people having with their friends. And there’s plenty of precedent for a young precocious girl winning this award. Much more than for an older character actress winning. Just ask Lauren Bacall, Gloria Stuart, Frances McDormand, or Ruby Dee how their Oscar nights turned out. So I’m predicting that it’s young Hailee Steinfeld here and keeping my fingers crossed that she doesn’t grow up and go all Paquin on us.
Best Actress
My Pick: Does Annette Benning deserve an Oscar? Yes. Of course. For this role, and for her body of work as a whole. She should have multiple Oscars already in fact. She is one of the great actresses of her generation and yet never seems to get the level of respect she dearly deserves. And am I generally a big Natalie Portman fan? No I am not. I think she’s way overrated as an actress and as a geek-boy dream girl. But when given the right project where she has to cry a lot and act frightened, she can knock it out of the park. (Thats a big part of the reason for her geek-boy appeal, but that’s a topic for another time...) And Black Swan is the definition of that project. As an actor myself I know I’m supposed to respect the subtle humanity of Benning's work over the flashy grandstanding of Portman's, but honestly I still found myself thinking about Natalie Portman’s work in Black Swan days afterwards. It resonated deeper with me than Annette Benning's work. Maybe that’s not fair or right, but it’s true. And while Christian Bale gave the best performance of the year, Natalie Portman gave what is likely to go down as the most iconic. So move over Hilary Swank, there’s a new Hilary Swank in town and her name is Natalie Portman.
The Grammys Pick: Annette Benning
Because she's the old, established, unhip choice who should have already won for better work years ago.
The Oscars Pick: Natalie Portman
When in doubt always go with most young, attractive, hot name. The dirty little secret of The Oscars is that the Academy membership is largely male. And the dirty little not-at-all-secret is that men generally like attractive young women. There’s a reason that only three actresses over the age of 40 have won Best Actress in the past 20 years (Sandra Bullock doesn’t count). And no, that reason is not "sheer coincidence". This "race" was over way before it even began.
Best Actor
My Pick: Colin Firth
We don’t actually need to spend time discussing this one do we?
The Grammys Pick: Everyone thinks it will be Colin Firth. He’s the only logical choice. He seems like a pretty mortal lock. You would probably bet your life on it if you could. That’s why The Grammys are gonna go with Jeff Bridges.
The Oscars Pick: Colin Firth
Best Director
My Pick: David Fincher
When I heard David Fincher was set to direct the Aaron Sorkin facebook movie I was confused. It made no sense. That didn’t sound like a David Fincher movie at all. And it wasn’t. But, then, ultimately, it was. Because he made it into one. He took a Sorkin script and turned it into a movie that had viewers on the edge of their seats in anticipation of a Winklevi finding a box with his brother’s head in it. For that he deserves the Oscar hands down. Plus he’s way overdue. So give him his Oscar already so he can stop making Benjamin Button (a movie I liked BTW) and go back to making straight-up David Fincher movies. Thanks.
The Grammys Pick: The question you always need to ask yourself with The Grammys is – who would a middle-aged housewife vote for? And I feel extremely confident that a middle aged housewife would vote for Tom Hooper.
The Oscars Pick: David Fincher
In pretty much every other category the Academy is willing to honor any fly-by-night American Idol reject who did good work; but when it comes to Best Director they are very protective of the category’s integrity. You almost always gotta have a proven track record to win this one. There’s a reason John Madden, Rob Marshall and Paul Haggis all lost Best Director the year their movies won Best Picture. And it’s the same reason Tom Hooper’s pleasant but undistinguished work is going to lose here this year. It’s because he’s a no name at this point who seems likely to never make another truly great film. Maybe he will, but maybe he won’t, and that possibility means that this is going instead to the big name who has never won. Maybe next time Mr. Hooper. If there is a next time.
Best Picture
My Pick: Here are some of the things critics said about The Social Network - "An American Landmark", "A Once-In-A-Generation Movie", and "Revolutionary. Absolutely emblematic of its time and place".
And here are some things that I just made up just now that critics said about The Kings Speech - "Very Enjoyable and Well Made", "A Quality Film", and "Thoroughly Competent".
And that, my friends, is the decision that Oscar voters are faced with. Do they make the fresh, forward-thinking, culturally relevant choice, or do they make the safe, predictable, out of touch choice. Sure it’s not like last year where the future of the independent studio system was at stake. And The Kings Speech is a perfectly fine movie and all. But still. What do we value? Pleasant entertainments, or culturally vital art? What kind of movies do we want there to be more of? Because if we go back to rewarding formulaic prestige pictures like The Kings Speech, then we run the risk of the indie studios producing nothing but a slate of movies where Meryl Streep has AIDS in the Holocaust. And sure some of those would likely be decent enough, but I thought we were past that. No Country for Old Men, The Departed, The Hurt Locker - these are all different types of movies than the Academy of old used to honor. Do they want to take a step backwards? What do they want to say about this year in film? What do they want to say about our cultural and artistic values and ideals? What is the statement they want to make for posterity? Who are they as an organization?
They are an organization that I hope will do the right thing. And I genuinely think that there’s a legitimate chance that they will. But if not, well, it’s exactly the kind of thing that…
The Grammys Pick: The Kings Speech
...the Grammys would do
The Oscars Pick: The Kings Speech
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